NFL coach hot seat rankings: Matt Nagy, Zac Taylor on notice ahead of Week 1 in 2021

Rapid change has become a way of life in the NFL head-coaching ranks.

Seven coaches were dismissed in the last year alone, including two (former Houston Texans coach Bill O'Brien and former Atlanta Falcons coach Dan Quinn) who were let go less than one-third of the way into the regular season. Long stays are a rarity, as 18 of the league's current coaches have been in their posts for less than three years, while only seven were hired before 2017.

Yet despite all the recent upheaval, several more team leaders find themselves entering this year already under pressure.

Here are five coaches entering 2021 already on the hot seat:

1. Matt Nagy, Chicago Bears

While a playoff berth the previous year typically provides coaches with some leeway, Nagy shouldn't feel too confident in his standing with the Bears after an 8-8 campaign in which his team dropped eight of its last 11 contests, including a wild-card exit against the New Orleans Saints. The 2018 Coach of the Year could only go so far with Mitchell Trubisky at quarterback, and now Nagy enters what could be a make-or-break season with oft-criticized Andy Dalton behind center in Week 1.

Nagy, who has managed a 28-20 record in three years, could see his fate tied to that of general manager Ryan Pace, who might not get the chance to make a third coaching hire during his tenure. The key to each of their futures, however, might rest with rookie quarterback Justin Fields. Given that Dalton seems a long shot to ignite a lackluster offense (26th in yards and 22nd in points in 2020) behind a suspect line, the focus in Chicago has already turned to how the franchise can best develop the Ohio State product, whose stellar preseason play only boosted his standing as a fan favorite. Yet setting Fields up for success might not be enough to save Nagy and Pace's jobs, as former Chargers coach Anthony Lynn can attest after he was dismissed following Justin Herbert's Offensive Rookie of the Year campaign that yielded only a 7-9 mark.

2. Zac Taylor, Cincinnati Bengals

How bad have Taylor's first two years in Cincinnati been? The Bengals have had three other coaches with career winning percentages under .300 – yet Taylor's 6-25-1 record is the worst among them.

To be fair, Taylor shouldn't have been expected to rescue a 2-14 team in 2019 that looked bound to bottom out, nor was there much he could do to buoy the offense after No. 1 pick Joe Burrow's season-ending knee injury last November. But for a coach hired at the height of the Sean McVay frenzy, the 38-year-old former assistant coach for the Los Angeles Rams wunderkind hasn't established offensive credentials anywhere close to that of his close friend. While Cincinnati's attack looks poised to make strides this season, the Bengals will need quick resolution on whether Taylor is the right person to develop Burrow.

3. Vic Fangio, Denver Broncos

In 2019, John Elway went against NFL trends by hiring Fangio, a 60-year-old defensive-minded coach getting his first top job at any level. Two years later, Fangio is just 12-20 and Elway has stepped down from his post after signing George Paton in January to a six-year contract as general manager. Add in the Broncos' ongoing ownership uncertainty and it's enough to leave Fangio in a vulnerable spot.

The tone for Fangio's critical third year should be evident early. Denver has gone 0-7 in September the last two seasons, often ending up the victim of bad luck or injuries. This year's opening slate, however, is particularly promising, with contests against the New York Giants, Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets – all of whom have offensive line woes that could be exploited by the Broncos' formidable pass rush. If new starting quarterback Teddy Bridgewater can comfortably play distributor to a promising core of skill-position players, Fangio might build himself a cushion before the Broncos have to establish themselves against the rest of the AFC West.

4. Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys

After Dak Prescott's season-ending compound fracture and ankle dislocation served as the topper to a spate of injuries that would derail Dallas' year, Jerry Jones ended any speculation last December that he would dismiss McCarthy, saying it was "ridiculous" to speculate about a one-and-done run. An additional mulligan, however, might be hard to come by if another season goes south.

Through his roster construction and statements to the media, Jones has given every indication he expects his current group to compete for the Super Bowl stage his franchise hasn't reached since the 1995 campaign. McCarthy's experience was a significant factor for his hiring, and it's clear the Cowboys hope he can push the team to a Year 2 jump similar to the one he did with Green Bay in 2007, when he helped lead the Packers to a 13-3 mark and the NFC championship game. But with Prescott joining the growing list of Cowboys stars operating on big-ticket contract extensions, Dallas is no longer playing with house money. With the injury slate wiped clean and the NFC East once again looking eminently winnable, the pressure will be ratcheted up for McCarthy.

5. Kliff Kingsbury, Arizona Cardinals

Arizona is no doubt in a better place than it was when Kingsbury took over in 2019, when the former Texas Tech coach and would-be USC coordinator became a hot NFL commodity. Yet the expected offensive revolution hasn't taken hold in the desert, and the Cardinals are still tied for the second-longest active playoff drought in the NFL at five seasons.

Kyler Murray's late-season shoulder injury derailed a 6-3 start last year, but Kingsbury was not merely a victim of circumstance. As the second-year coach became inflexible in his horizontally focused scheme, the offense stagnated. Maybe a fully healthy Murray will allow Kingsbury to unlock the deep passing game that disappeared last year. But with the rest of the NFC West looking worthy of the postseason, Kingsbury and the Cardinals won't have much room for error.

Follow Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz on Twitter @MikeMSchwartz.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: NFL coach hot seat rankings: Matt Nagy, Zac Taylor on notice in 2021