NFL Coach of the Year 2022: Bill Belichick’s odds, favorites to win and predictions

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Bill Belichick’s NFL Coach of the Year odds, award predictions originally appeared on NBC Sports Boston

The NFL head coaching carousel seemingly never stopped this offseason with nine new coaches filling vacancies in cities ranging from lush Miami to frigid Minnesota.

A few of those names are familiar amongst football fans – Lovie Smith, Doug Pederson, Dennis Allen and Josh McDaniels – while five of the new hires are first time head coaches in the NFL.

Those newcomers are the Denver Broncos’ Nathaniel Hackett, New York Giants’ Brian Daboll, Miami Dolphins’ Mike McDaniel, Chicago Bears’ HC Matt Eberflus and Minnesota Vikings’ Kevin O’Connell.

Let’s take a look at where the rookie head coaches stand against some of the stiffer competition for the 2022 NFL Coach of the Year award.

Who’s the favorite to win NFL Coach of the Year in 2022?

Chargers coach Brandon Staley enters his second year at the helm in Los Angeles with QB Justin Herbert under center, and as the odds favorite to win Coach of the Year. Expectations are high for the Chargers, even though they play in the most competitive division in the NFL, the AFC West.

After Staley is fellow second-year coach Nick Sirianni, who brought the Philadelphia Eagles to the postseason in his first season in the City of Brotherly Love.

A quadrant of new NFL coaches –  Hackett, Daboll, Pederson, McDaniels – find themselves with some of the shortest odds for the award.

Here’s where all 32 coaches stand heading into the 2022 NFL season, according to our partner, PointsBet:

  • Brandon Staley (Chargers) +1400

  • Nick Sirianni (Eagles) +1500

  • Nathaniel Hackett (Broncos) +1600

  • Kyle Shanahan (49ers) +1600

  • Brian Daboll (Giants) +1600

  • Doug Pederson (Jaguars) +1600

  • Josh McDaniels (Raiders) +1800

  • John Harbaugh (Ravens) +1800

  • Frank Reich (Colts) +2000

  • Todd Bowles (Bucs) +2000

  • Mike McDaniel (Dolphins) +2000

  • Kevin O’Connell (Vikings)  +2000

  • Dan Campbell (Lions)  +2000

  • Sean McDermott (Bills)  +2200

  • Kevin Stefanski (Browns)  +2200

  • Bill Belichick (Patriots) +2200

  • Mike Vrabel (Titans) +2500

  • Andy Reid (Chiefs) +2500

  • Sean McVay (Rams) +2500

  • Zac Taylor (Bengals) +2500

  • Matt LaFleur (Packers) +2500

  • Dennis Allen (Saints) +2500

  • Robert Saleh (Jets) +3000

  • Kliff Kingsbury (Cardinals) +3000

  • Mike Tomlin (Steelers) +3000

  • Ron Rivera (Commanders) +3300

  • Matt Rhule (Panthers) +4000

  • Mike McCarthy (Cowboys) +4000

  • Matt Eberflus (Bears) +4000

  • Arthur Smith (Falcons) +5000

  • Lovie Smith (Texans) +5000

  • Pete Carroll (Seahawks) +6600

Which current NFL coaches have won Coach of the Year?

Six current NFL coaches have won the award already: Andy Reid, Bill Belichick, Ron Rivera, John Harbaugh, Kevin Stefanski and Mike Vrabel.

Belichick is a three-time winner, while Rivera took home the prize twice with the Carolina Panthers before his recent stint leading the Washington Commanders. Reid’s lone win came 20 years ago in 2002 with the Eagles.

Harbaugh, Stefanski and Vrabel have each won the award the last three years, respectively.

Who will win NFL Coach of the Year in 2022?

Kyle Shanahan has the most to gain – and the most to lose – this season amongst his peers in the head coaching circles. Shanahan has ousted the reliable Jimmy Garoppolo, the starting quarterback who led the San Francisco 49ers to Super Bowl LIV and the 2022 NFC Championship Game, in favor of second-year pro Trey Lance.

It’s a massive gamble that could pay dividends in many different ways for the franchise, one of them being recognition for Shanahan as the Coach of the Year award.

If Lance shines and develops into the next Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, then his head coach will be credited with that success. If Lance flutters and struggles with accuracy, then Shanahan’s +1600 odds look downright ridiculous compared to some of the others in the field.

Let’s take a look down the board to see if there’s any value past Shanahan.

Longshot Coach of the Year predictions

Detroit head coach Dan Campbell at 20-to-1 is one of my favorite plays in this category heading into the preseason. For starters, it’s a media award and Campbell has been pulling in reporters like a magnet since he stepped to the podium at his introductory press conference in January 2021.

The no-quit Lions have relatively low expectations entering 2022 – and an even worse history when it comes to making the NFL playoffs. Translation: All this team has to do to make Campbell an automatic favorite for this award is do what most fans think is impossible and make the postseason for the first time since 2016.

A longshot? Sure, but again, it’s coming at a price tag of 20-to-1. The return on a bet for the Lions to make the playoffs at PointsBet is +375. One number is a lot larger than the other.

Two more longshots I like: Mike McDaniel (same odds as Campbell) and Robert Saleh at 30-to-1. These two AFC East coaches are going up against some stiff competition with the Buffalo Bills being the odds favorite to win this year's Super Bowl and the New England Patriots all but guaranteed to be competitive under the Hall of Fame guidance of Belichick.

Nonetheless, any sort of injury to Bills QB Josh Allen or second-year signal-caller Mac Jones for New England could have a snow globe effect on this division. Yes, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that McDaniel, a coordinator who for four consecutive seasons has been responsible for producing the highest yards after catch reception, might just be a coaching savant and the perfect mind to help infuse Tyreek Hill into the Miami offense.

Also in McDaniel’s favor for this award: Three of the last five NFL Coach of the Year winners were first-time coaches (McVay, Matt Nagy and Stefanski). Of all the first year coaches in 2022, McDaniel’s been arguably dealt the biggest QB handicap in Tua Tagovailoa. If he can make the offense hum with Tua, then this bet presents terrific value.

Lastly, Saleh has a similar case to Campbell. If his New York Jets made a miracle – unfathomable – run at the postseason in 2022, he’s a shoe-in for this award. The second-year coach has QB Zach Wilson under center and a bevy of young skill position players, but New York will only go as far as Saleh’s defensive mind will carry them. Can he figure out a way to slow down Allen or limit Hill’s explosiveness? It seems doubtful at the onset of the season.

Like Detroit, the Jets have long odds to be a playoff team in 2022 (6-to-1). It’s an attractive number. But with all that said, I’d rather take a spin of the roulette wheel at 30-to-1 and hope the coach that helped lead San Francisco’s defense to the Super Bowl just three seasons ago is capable of working magic in the Big Apple.

Editor's note: All odds are provided by our partner, PointsBet. PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links.