NFL Betting Week 7: Buying low on the Broncos

Yahoo fantasy football analyst Scott Pianowski reveals his weekly NFL betting ticket in his Throwing Darts column. Check out where he's putting his jelly beans for Week 7. All lines courtesy of our friends at BetMGM.

So far, so good with the 2022 ATS picks (six straight winning weeks), but it’s a long season. Keep the head down, keep grinding.

Broncos -1.5 vs. Jets

I locked this play on Thursday, thinking the line might move against me, and now the Jets are favored Friday. Go figure. But for integrity purposes, we have to use Thursday's line. Both teams don't trust their quarterback, and I do respect New York's improved defense. But the Broncos have the better defense, and an element-based home-field edge. It's a good moment to sell high on the Jets and buy low on the Broncos.

Falcons +6.5 at Bengals

Arthur Smith is a pain in the neck for fantasy, but the Falcons have something going with their power running game and the defense has been better in recent weeks. Atlanta's also covered every week, yet I don't feel like the line has adjusted to this team consistently overperforming. We'll grab the charitable points again.

Colts +2.5 at Titans

Typical Colts, start off slow and then get into a rhythm. Matt Ryan has posted a rating over 100 in three of the past four games, and suddenly the Indy receiving room looks decent. The Titans have Derrick Henry and that matters, but what else on that offense scares you? Take Indianapolis to avenge the earlier defeat to Tennessee.

Matt Ryan #2 of the Indianapolis Colts celebrates after a two-point conversion against the Jacksonville Jaguars during an NFL game
Matt Ryan has turned his early slow start to the NFL season around lately. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Dolphins -7 vs. Steelers

I rarely like spotting this big a number, but I suspect Pittsburgh emptied the emotional reservoir in the Tampa Bay upset and could come out flatter than a pancake in this spot. Miami's loss last week was misleading — the Dolphins had a 224-yard edge on offense. Sometimes you lose games you should win; Miami also stole a game against Buffalo it should have lost. No flukes this week — just the better team taking care of business.

Seahawks +5.5 at Chargers

Seattle's defense is always a worry, but the Seahawks offense is good — fourth in DVOA. The Chargers have no home-field advantage and they come into this game off a short week and a Monday overtime affair. This game will be decided in the fourth period. I could only take the points.

Last Week: 4-1

Season: 23-7

Pianow's historical Throwing Darts record (only two losing seasons in 13 years) and 2022 weekly results can be found here.

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