NFL Betting Week 4: Do the 49ers have the Rams number?

Yahoo fantasy football analyst Scott Pianowski reveals his weekly NFL betting ticket in his Throwing Darts column. Check out where he's putting his jelly beans for Week 4.

Off to a good start thus far, 11-4 through the first three weeks and we already booked a win with the Bengals last night. Here are the remaining selections for Week 4:

49ers -1.5 vs. Rams

I'm always tempted when I see a good home team spotting less than the standard 3 points, and the Niners have run well in this series — five straight covers, and six straight regular-season wins (the Rams did win in the NFC Championship last year). Heads-up history doesn't mean much to me when we're talking about non-divisional opponents — the teams don't meet often and personnel changes too quickly — but I do care about history within a division.

So long as Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't have another public meltdown, San Francisco's diverse offense and nasty defense can get us a win.

Steelers -3.5 vs. Jets

The line suggests the teams aren't far from even, though the Steelers rank a respectable 16th in DVOA while the Jets sit 29th. I'd like to see Zach Wilson take a step forward in his second season, but he's still a great unknown. Pittsburgh's offense has its own problems, but this seems like a small number of points to swallow when I'm getting the better team to start with.

Falcons +1 vs. Browns

For all the bellyaching about Arthur Smith, the Falcons rank 8th in offensive DVOA and most of the fun stuff is routed through the three playmakers, Drake London, Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts. Sure, we want more from Pitts, but last week was a good start. The Browns have done a good job hiding and limiting Jacoby Brissett, but you can only get away with that for so long.

Marcus Mariota #1 and Drake London #5 of the Atlanta Falcons celebrate a touchdown during the third quarter of an NFL game against the Seattle Seahawks
The Falcons offense hasn't been a pushover in the NFL this season. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)

Seahawks +4 at Lions

It hurts to turn my back on the Lions, who have covered 14 of their last 20 games. But Detroit is missing its two top playmakers — Amon-Ra St. Brown, D'Andre Swift — and the Seahawks' offense actually looked competent last week. Detroit hasn't earned the right to spot this many points against a non-doormat.

Last Week: 5-0

Week 4: 1-0

Season: 12-4

Pianow's historical Throwing Darts record (only two losing seasons in 13 years) can be found here.

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