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NFL betting: There is a huge wager on Patriots to win Super Bowl, and it's pretty smart

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On Tuesday, one bettor with a nice bankroll saw value on the New England Patriots to win the Super Bowl. 

Maybe we should all be following his or her lead, even if we're not all going to put $20,000 on the Patriots. 

The bettor placed $20,000 on the Patriots at 25-to-1 odds at BetMGM this week. It would be a $500,000 win if the Patriots win it all. 

Many NFL fans might turn ill at the thought of the Patriots winning yet another Super Bowl, but it looks like a realistic possibility these past few weeks. It's at least worth a shot at +2500 odds. 

Patriots have been on a roll

The Patriots didn't start the season looking like a playoff team, much less a Super Bowl contender. 

They lost Week 1 at home to the Miami Dolphins, and that loss is looking way, way worse now given the Dolphins' disappointing season. They were 1-3 after losses to the Saints and Buccaneers. In Week 5, they should have probably lost to the terrible Houston Texans. Rookie quarterback Davis Mills, who was bad in every other start this season, had 312 yards, three touchdowns and a 141.7 passer rating against New England. The Patriots pulled out that win in the fourth quarter, but nobody at that point should have been thinking about betting on them to win a Super Bowl. 

Then the Patriots' coaching staff started figuring it out. 

The last five games haven't resembled the first five. The Patriots lost to the Cowboys in overtime (not bad) and then won four in a row. They beat the Browns 45-7 on Sunday. They look good, and it's not like anyone in the AFC has been a reliable favorite. 

FOXBOROUGH, MA - NOVEMBER 14: New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) celebrates a score during a game between the New England Patriots and the Cleveland Browns on November 14, 2021, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
New England Patriots quarterback Mac Jones (10) celebrates a score against the Cleveland Browns on Nov. 14, 2021, at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. (Photo by Fred Kfoury III/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Patriots are being led by QB Mac Jones

The biggest keys to the Patriots' resurgence are an improved defense, a good running game and the development of rookie quarterback Mac Jones. 

Jones has been the biggest story. He was the fifth quarterback selected in the first round of this year's draft and the best bet of the group to win NFL offensive rookie of the year. He is getting more confident, taking more shots downfield than earlier in the season when the Patriots' offense was a lot more limited, and he has been efficient. This is why you play rookie quarterbacks right away; he is only going to get better with seven games to go. 

The best news for the Patriots is the AFC contenders are all flawed. The Ravens just lost to the Dolphins. The Bills have been disappointing, with a loss to the Jaguars on their resume. The Chiefs have been mediocre most of the season. There's no team the Patriots couldn't beat in January, at least considering how they've all looked to this point. 

Maybe the Patriots won't win it all, but 25-to-1 odds seem way too long in an unpredictable AFC.