NFL betting: Rams offense just now hitting its stride
It's not every Tuesday that we get blessed with a doubleheader of NFL football. The simultaneous action of both games will have sports bettors dialed in for three hours in hopes of getting the best of each contest. If you bet early in the week, you likely have a bet on at least one of the two games. The circumstances changed drastically, as the postponements have turned the tables regarding player availability in each matchup.
My strongest position for tonight is a bet I put in on Monday of last week: Seahawks/Rams under 47.5 . It's still a solid play at the current number, but I think the postponements created value in some other areas as well. Considering I already have a decent bet on the total, I added a two-team parlay for a small stake to celebrate what we hope is the last Tuesday night doubleheader of the season. The parlay pays out at +291 or you can play each game as single bets at the odds below.
Philadelphia (-6.5) vs. Washington (-110)
After skyrocketing to double-digit favorites before the scheduling shift, Philly sits as less than a touchdown favorite on gameday. This was always going to be an NFC East battle waged in the trenches, and Washington getting back DT Jonathan Allen increases its chances of slowing down Philly's rushing attack. The Eagles rank No.1 in rushing yards per game and have averaged 211 yards on the ground in their last three games. While Washington was getting healthier, the Eagles put two offensive linemen, Landon Dickerson and Andre Dillard, on the COVID-19 list.
The handicap comes down to whether you think the Eagles can get the running game cooking without their offensive line at full strength. Here is why I am confident they can. Dialing up a big dose of rushing plays and asking your depth linemen to fire off the ball is the most effective way to maximize production. Offensive linemen love to be the aggressors and the running game allows them to attack rather than be reactive. The Washington defense is 23rd in Rush EPA allowed and are running into a well-rested Eagles team off a bye. Philly is 3-1 ATS as a favorite with a +10.8 margin of victory ATS. Without a viable option at QB, I am betting Washington falls behind and stays behind.
L.A. Rams team total over 27.5 (+100)
The Rams offense is rounding back into form with WR Odell Beckham Jr. coming off the COVID-19 list Saturday, and it should continue to have success. The Rams average 28 points per game but have bumped their scoring to 31.6 points over the last three weeks. Rams QB Matt Stafford seems to have overcome some earlier injuries and will take advantage of a Seattle secondary that will be without starting CB DJ Reed.
At full strength, the Seahawks defense is 31st in passing success rate allowed. It's hard to imagine it provides much resistance against the NFL's leader in receiving yards, Cooper Kupp. I do think the Rams cover the number on Tuesday night, but getting a team total at even money against a poor secondary is the better option. Once the Rams hit 28, we don't have to worry about L.A. leaving the backdoor open.
Stats provided by teamrankings.com and Ben Baldwin (SR based on 10/90 WP).
