NFL betting: Overs are hitting at a ridiculous rate so far this preseason

·3 min read

If you're an over bettor and like participating in betting NFL preseason football, you've already padded your bankroll before the start of the regular season.

The easiest bet last week was just betting on points in NFL games. Overs went a remarkable 13-3 in Week 1 of the NFL preseason, and if you count an over in the Hall of Fame Game, overs are 14-3.

It's not often anything in sports betting hits at an 82 percent rate. We might not see it continue either.

There was a lot of scoring in first preseason week

Not only were overs hitting last week, most weren't even close.

Joe Ostrowski of the BetQL Network pointed out that overs have hit by more than seven points 12 times this preseason. They've hit by double digits eight times.

Last week, sportsbooks posted very low totals for the preseason games. Most of the totals were in the low 30s. Only three games had a total of more than 36, and none were 40 or higher.

In the Hall of Fame Game between the Las Vegas Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars, the total at most sportsbooks landed at 30.5, and it was even possible to find a 29.5 before kickoff. You won't see a total like that very often in an NFL game. The Raiders won 27-11, and the game went over.

That started a trend. Just beware that sportsbooks don't like losing. The only game posted at BetMGM for Week 2 on Monday morning was Thursday night's game between the Chicago Bears and Seattle Seahawks. The total is 39.5, the highest total of the preseason so far. You'll see many totals for Week 2 of the preseason adjusted up a few points after overs were so successful in Week 1.

Raheem Blackshear (35) of the Buffalo Bills scored one of many touchdowns we saw in the first week of preseason play. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)
Raheem Blackshear (35) of the Buffalo Bills scored one of many touchdowns we saw in the first week of preseason play. (Photo by Timothy T Ludwig/Getty Images)

Reasons the overs hit so often

The question is, why did so many overs hit? The fact that the totals were a touchdown or more off in a majority of games probably indicates it was a little more than random variance.

First, the totals were just too low. We all know the NFL wants scoring. The rules help offenses. More coaches are embracing a pass-heavy approach. Starters don't play much in the preseason anymore, especially in the first game, and that usually favors defenses. But remember that those defenses are filled with third- and fourth-stringers too. They'll have breakdowns.

The lack of physical practices could be a factor. Teams want to keep their players healthy. The rules limit how much you can hit. Some teams in the preseason opener missed a lot of tackles. The Seattle Seahawks come to mind as a team that missed a ton of tackles and that's a big reason they gave up 32 points to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Maybe the unders will start hitting. Players will get acclimated to tackling again. Totals will be adjusted up. But if you got on the over train last week, you're already playing with some house money.