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NFL betting: One Super Bowl prop available is practically free money

Pete Truszkowski
·4 min read
23

There's no such thing as a lock in sports betting. Crazy things happen. The unpredictability of sports is why they're the best form of reality television. However, there's a prop available for Super Bowl Sunday that comes pretty close to being a lock.

There will be a lot of attention on the coin flip for the Super Bowl. Betting heads or tails is one of the more popular bets of the night. It's a pure 50/50 chance that provides immediate action right off the bat for bettors who want to feel some immediate adrenaline. However, let's focus on what happens immediately after the coin flip.

Bet on coin-flip winning team to defer

After the adrenaline rush of seeing whether the coin lands on heads or tails and seeing which team wins the toss, the winning team will quickly have to decide whether they want to kick, receive, pick a direction or defer their choice to the second half.

You can also bet on this decision. Currently, the coin-toss winning team electing to receive is +375 while the coin-toss winning team electing to defer is -500.

In 2008, the NFL made a rule change that allowed the winner of the pregame coin toss to defer their choice to the second half. Prior to that rule change, teams would almost always opt to receive the ball after winning the coin toss. Now, that trend has done a complete 180. In 2018, 92% of teams elected to defer after winning the coin toss and that trend has continued through 2021.

Since 2008, 12 of 13 Super Bowl coin flip winners (92.3%) have decided to defer their choice to the second half. Eleven straight coin flip winners have elected to defer. The only team to upset the apple cart was the New Orleans Saints in 2010, maybe because they knew they wanted to unleash the onside kick to begin the second half.

Since Sean McVay became head coach of the Rams in 2017, Los Angeles has won 48 pregame coin tosses (48-42, for those that care about that angle). In his 48 coin toss victories, McVay has elected to defer 48 times. He has never elected to receive during five seasons as an NFL head coach. This includes the Rams winning the coin toss in the 2019 Super Bowl and three other playoff games.

INGLEWOOD, CA - JANUARY 9, 2022: Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay watches the Rams warmup before facing the San Francisco 49ers on January 9, 2022 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California.(Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
Will Sean McVay continue his 100% deferral rate in the Super Bowl if given the choice? (Gina Ferazzi / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

On the other side, Bengals coach Zac Taylor has similar tendencies, which is not surprising considering he comes off of McVay's coaching tree. Over his three year head coaching tenure, Taylor's Bengals have won the coin toss 27 times (27-25 overall record). Taylor has elected to defer 26 times (96.3%) with his lone decision to receive coming in Week 5 of 2020. From Week 14 of 2020 through Week 6 of 2021, the Bengals won nine straight coin flips. They elected to defer on all nine occasions. The Bengals have won the coin flip twice in these playoffs, electing to defer both times.

Don't be afraid of the high price

Naturally, there's hesitation when it comes to laying -500 on any bet. However, it's worth noting that this bet focuses more on strategic tendencies and beliefs rather than anything physically occurring in the game. Those decisions have less variables and therefore are more likely to remain consistent.

If we do the math, -500 odds implies something has an 83.3% chance of happening. We've already outlined that:

  • In 2018, 92% of all NFL teams elected to defer. That trend is only growing.

  • 92.3% of Super Bowl coin-toss winners since 2008 have elected to defer (12/13).

  • Sean McVay has deferred in 48 of 48 coin-flip wins (100%).

  • Sean McVay has already deferred after winning a Super Bowl coin flip.

  • Zac Taylor has deferred in 26 of 27 coin flip wins (96.3%).

All of these numbers are significantly higher than the 83.3% we need to have value on this bet. You need to bet $500 to win $100, which isn't easy but it's also not crazy. If your friend needed $500 immediately and offered to pay you back $600 in an hour, I'm sure you'd accept that offer in a heart beat. This line should probably be closer to -1200 based on all of the data.