Did you have a good weekend?
Maybe you did, but you probably didn't have quite as good of a weekend as one bettor at BetMGM.
The same bettor placed two parlays prior to Sunday's NFL games. They risked just over $2,000 total. If the Buffalo Bills cover the spread on Monday night, they'll be nearly $340,000 richer.
The bettor risked $1,100 on an 8-leg parlay with picks against the spread. This bet needs the Bills to cover a 5.5-point spread on Monday night in order to win $193,475. The line has moved in the game, as the Bills are now 6-point favorites.
They also risked $1,000 on an 11-leg moneyline parlay. This parlay just needs the Bills to win the game in order to cash for $144,987.
How did we get here?
If you haven't heard, it's been a very good weekend for the betting public and a very bad weekend for the sportsbooks. Favorites started off by covering every game in the early afternoon slate. In the late afternoon slate, the Cardinals were a huge public play and they came through as an outright underdog winner against the favored Browns. The Cowboys were also a huge win for the betting public.
The early games in this parlay were calm and relaxing. The early slate saw the first six games of the parlay hit with ease. Even the Raiders and Cardinals as underdogs were relaxing games to watch for the bettor.
The bettor then started to perspire. The Cowboys lost the overtime coin toss before forcing a punt and winning the game. The Steelers were also forced into overtime and punted on their first possession of overtime before T.J. Watt forced a fumble that set up a winning field goal.
In his 8-team against-the-spread parlay, the bettor included all teams listed above except the Colts, Raiders and Steelers.
Leaving the Steelers off the spread parlay was a pivotal and parlay-saving decision. Pittsburgh won the game but they failed to cover as a 5.5-point favorite.
The bettor was also extremely fortunate from a spread point of view in the aforementioned Cowboys game. Once the Cowboys forced a punt in overtime, all they needed to win the game was a field goal. A field goal would have failed to cover the 3.5-point spread, but Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb made that a moot point.
Should they hedge?
The bettor in question is risking over $2,000 dollars total on 8- and 11-leg parlays, so it might seem like money isn't a real issue for them.
For us common folk, the obvious question becomes if and how the bettor should hedge their parlay in order to ensure maximum profits.
There are three scenarios that could unfold on Monday night:
Bills win and cover the spread: Bettor wins $338,562
Bills win and don't cover the spread: Bettor profits $143,887
Titans win: Bettor loses $2,100
There are two ways to hedge this potential bet: Betting the Titans on the moneyline at +210 or betting the Titans to cover the 6-point spread.
If the Bills win the game, the bettor is guaranteed at least $143,887. If the bettor put $46,450 on the Titans to win the game at +210, they would win $97,545. They would be costing themselves around $46,000 in potential profit in order to guarantee a win of about $97,000.
Maybe the bettor is confident the Bills will win the game but isn't sure if they'll cover the spread. If the Bills win the game and cover the spread, the bettor will make $338,562. In order to guarantee a profit of $161,000, the bettor would need to bet $177,000 on the Titans to cover the current 6-point spread.
Risk tolerance is different for everyone, so the bettor may just let the parlays ride. However, they have two very solid tickets that can easily be hedged for a lucrative profit.
Good luck to the bettor in question.