NFL betting, odds: Don't rip up your 49ers future tickets just yet

The San Francisco 49ers have now won five straight games, improving their record to 8-4, and sit on top of the NFC West. Before Week 13 got underway, the 49ers were viewed as one of the top contenders in the NFL to win a Super Bowl this season. They have a head coach who is described by many as a genius in Kyle Shanahan. They have elite skill players with the likes of Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. They have arguably the best defense in football.

However, in San Francisco's 33-17 win over Miami on Sunday, the 49ers lost Jimmy Garoppolo for the rest of the season due to a broken foot. Brock Purdy entered the game with San Francisco trailing 7-3 and went 25-for-37 for 210 yards and two touchdowns in the eventual victory. It was a solid performance, but can a team with Brock Purdy under center really be considered a Super Bowl contender?

San Francisco still near the top

Entering the weekend of action, the San Francisco 49ers were +600 to win the Super Bowl. Those odds were tied with the Philadelphia Eagles for third-best in the league. Only the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills had better odds to win it all. At +600, it's implied that San Francisco had a nearly 14.3% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

After Week 13, the 49ers are down to 11-to-1 to win the Super Bowl at BetMGM. Those odds suggest just an 8.3% chance of success. While it's a notable drop, the 49ers are still viewed as one of the top contenders in the league. Only the Chiefs, Bills, Eagles and Dallas Cowboys have better odds to win a title. At 11-to-1, the 49ers are tied with the Cincinnati Bengals for the fifth-best odds.

You can argue the injury to Garoppolo moves the 49ers down a tier. Previously, they were viewed as the favorites to potentially come out of the NFC. Now, they have the third-best odds in the conference. Rather than being near the top of the league with the Chiefs and Bills, the 49ers are closer to teams such as the Bengals, Dolphins, Vikings and Ravens. While that's not terrible company to be in, those teams aren't at the level of Kansas City or Buffalo.

Do the 49ers need Jimmy G?

When the San Francisco 49ers went all-in to move up and select Trey Lance in the 2021 draft, it was certainly a public statement about their feelings on Jimmy Garoppolo. The takeaway was that they viewed Garoppolo as a potential hinderance in reaching the ultimate goal of winning a Super Bowl. Lance had a much higher ceiling, and he could raise the level of the 49ers; meanwhile, it felt like Garoppolo was more or less "along for the ride."

However, when Lance was injured earlier in the year, some thought Garoppolo might be the better option for winning the Super Bowl this season. San Francisco wouldn't have to deal with young QB growing pains, and Garoppolo had won in the playoffs in the past, going to the Super Bowl in 2020 and the NFC championship game last season.

Now, it appears that neither quarterback will be an option this season. Enter Brock Purdy from Iowa State, the final pick of the 2022 draft. It's clear he won't be "Mr. Irrelevant" down the stretch. Unless the 49ers claim Baker Mayfield off waivers or some other quarterback option becomes available out of nowhere, Purdy will be expected to lead the team into the playoffs.

Nobody is saying Purdy is nearly as good as Garoppolo, but the questions the 49ers faced entering this week are the same questions they face now. Will their quarterback play be enough for them to make a run? The defense, coaching and rest of the roster are all there. Will Purdy be able to hang with the likes of Dak Prescott or Jalen Hurts in the NFC playoffs? What about Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen in the Super Bowl? The answer leans toward no, but that was also the case entering the week with Garoppolo under center.

Shanahan will scheme the ball into the hands of McCaffrey, Samuel, Kittle and Aiyuk. He would've had the same game plan with Garoppolo. Maybe there's less confidence in Purdy, but the overall confidence wasn't high in Garoppolo to begin with. They showed that in the 2021 draft, and they showed that in training camp when Garoppolo wasn't even given an opportunity to compete against Lance.

The shift in odds shows that it's likely a slight downgrade, but based on how this team is built, it's far from a death knell for San Francisco's Super Bowl hopes. The 49ers are 3-point favorites over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers next weekend.

Yes, Brock Purdy is favored against Tom Brady. That just highlights how good this 49ers team can be, even with a relative unknown under center.