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NFL betting lessons: The Packers are on a ridiculous streak for bettors

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  • Green Bay Packers
    Green Bay Packers

Everyone in the NFL generally finishes close to the middle of the pack against the spread. Part of that is oddsmakers making sure no team wins or loses too much against the number, and part is the parity of the league. 

The Green Bay Packers are a big exception. 

The Packers are the only team in the NFL with double-digit wins against the spread at 10-2. That's even more impressive when you remember they were blown out in Week 1 by the New Orleans Saints. Since that dud of an opener, they've covered in 10 of 11 games. 

The Dallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals are the only other NFL teams with fewer than four losses against the number. They're both 8-3 ATS, according to Covers.com

We have talked often this season about how no contender is trustworthy. Maybe we're just ignoring the Packers for some reason. They are strangely underrated (which is a reason they've covered so many times). It was odd that they were underdogs at home last week against the Los Angeles Rams, who haven't been very good against the best teams on their schedule. But most people were happily betting the Rams, ignoring the Packers' streak against the spread. 

The Packers have covered in all ways. They covered at Arizona when they were without multiple receivers and their defensive coordinator. They covered at the Kansas City Chiefs when Aaron Rodgers was out, even though they didn't win straight up. They didn't make bettors sweat at all last week against the Rams. 

This streak won't last forever. No ATS streak does, especially in the NFL. But bettors who caught on early to the Packers being really good this season have already cashed a bunch of tickets. 

Davante Adams and the Green Bay Packers have been great for bettors. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
Davante Adams and the Green Bay Packers have been great for bettors. (Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Unders have been the way to go

Last season there was an explosion of points. This season that has pulled back a bit. 

If you just bet the under in every NFL game this season, you'd have hit 56.4 of your bets. The under is 101-78 to this point in the season, according to Covers. Points spiked from 45.6 per game to 49.6 last season. That was a record. That has come back to 46 this season. Having no fans in the stands clearly helped offenses. 

It seems unlikely that scoring is going to have a bump late in the season when the weather gets worse. 

Seattle's unders have been a best bet

The Seattle Seahawks can't score. It's a problem. And they have the most extreme over/under record in the NFL. The under has hit 10 times in the Seahawks' 11 games. The Seahawks' unders are never too low, because Russell Wilson is their quarterback, but Wilson hasn't looked the same since coming back from a finger injury. The over/under on Monday night was 47 and even with the Seahawks' last-minute touchdown, there were only 32 points scored. 

The Seahawks have also failed to cover in all three games since Wilson returned from injury.