NFL odds: Let's fade teams that have played a weak schedule for a Week 4 teaser

My NFL teasers moved to 2-1 on the season, with both the Falcons and Cowboys winning last week as outright underdogs. Week 4 could be more volatile with weather concerns and player injuries playing a role in some of the tighter spreads. There are nine games with spreads of 3 points or less. With a few options on the board, a Week 4 teaser is in play.

As a reminder, here are some general guidelines to follow if you are wagering on NFL teasers to keep risk in check.

  • Stick to six-point teasers (you need to win more consistently to offset the higher price).

  • Keep it to a two-team teaser (the more pieces you add, the greater the risk).

  • Target lower-totaled games (the more points expected, the more variance involved).

  • Tease through the key numbers of three and seven (this approach is at the heart of all proven winning strategies).

Current Week 4 teaser-leg options

New Orleans Saints +8.5 vs. Minnesota Vikings, 43.5 (London)

Atlanta Falcons +7.5 at Cleveland Browns, 47.5

Arizona Cardinals +8 at Carolina Panthers, 43.5

Denver Broncos +8.5 at Las Vegas Raiders, 45.5

Los Angeles Rams +7.5 at San Francisco 49ers, 43

NFL Week 4 teaser bet: Cardinals +8 and Rams +7.5

The Carolina Panthers are not comparable to the Kansas City Chiefs or the Los Angeles Rams. That’s two Super Bowl opponents the Cardinals faced and lost. Panthers quarterback Baker Mayfield just breaks the top 30 for passing yards per game, ahead of QBs in Cowboys’ Cooper Rush and Bears’ Justin Fields.

Meanwhile, the Carolina defense has faced Jacoby Brissett, Daniel Jones and Jameis Winston. This could be a big game for Cardinals QB Kyler Murray and RB James Conner on the ground. The Panthers' rushing defense gave up 141 yards to Browns RB Nick Chubb in a 26-24 loss in Week 1. Against a mobile QB in the Eagles' Jalen Hurts, the Panthers gave up two rushing scores in a 21-18 loss last season. Murray and the Cardinals' ground game keep this matchup within the teaser spread.

San Francisco is 4-7 both straight up and against the spread as a home favorite since the 2020 season. Rams QB Matthew Stafford is coming off his best game, throwing for 10.0 yards per pass despite having touchdowns dropped by Allen Robinson and Cooper Kupp. The 49ers defense is first in league for passing yards allowed but has faced Justin Fields and Geno Smith, two quarterbacks averaging 240 passing yards or less per game.

Two of the last three times Stafford faced the 49ers the game has been decided by one score. The one outlier was a 31-10 Rams loss on the road in Week 10 last season. That came the week after Stafford sprained his ankle against the Titans and after having a lower back injury the two weeks prior. With Stafford coming off a solid performance, all signs point to him being healthy, which could make this a competitive matchup once again.