The NFL season just ended last night, but that doesn't mean we just move on from football. Over the next two and a half months, we'll have the combine, free-agency and the NFL draft. The Denver Broncos are a team expected to have an active offseason.
The betting odds for next year's Super Bowl are already posted at BetMGM. A lot of the familiar names are near the top, but there's one team that clearly doesn't belong based on their current roster and this past season's performances. What are the oddsmakers trying to tell us about the Broncos?
Denver has sixth best Super Bowl odds
There's no real surprises at the top of the Super Bowl odds for 2022-23. You have the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills at the top of the leaderboard at +750 odds. Both teams have tremendous offenses, solid defenses and elite coaches. Next, you have the Los Angeles Rams (11-to-1) and Cincinnati Bengals (12-to-1). Both just appeared in the Super Bowl.
At 12-to-1, the Dallas Cowboys might feel a little high. However, that can easily be explained. They have a very talented roster and they play in a weak division. They're also the most popular team in the country, so bettors will bet them at any price.
The first real surprise is the Denver Broncos, who are currently 16-to-1 to win it all. These are the fifth best odds in the league and it puts them on par with the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers.
The Broncos are coming off a 7-10 season that saw them finish in fourth place in the AFC West. There are some solid players on the roster, but the roster is far from a Super Bowl contender as presently constituted. This current version of the Broncos should probably have odds near 50-to-1. They belong in a tier with teams like the Raiders, Dolphins, Panthers and Commanders.
But by placing the Broncos near the very top of Super Bowl contenders, the speculation picks up. Obviously, oddsmakers are not expecting this team to be led by Teddy Bridgewater or Drew Lock next season.
Broncos have been linked to Aaron Rodgers
We know all about the Aaron Rodgers situation in Green Bay. He wanted out of Green Bay last offseason before agreeing to return for this past season. However, the Rodgers rumors are back in full-force again this year after the Packers won zero playoff games.
The Broncos hired Nathaniel Hackett as their new head coach this offseason. Hackett served as the Packers' offensive coordinator over the past three seasons and by all accounts had a good relationship with Rodgers.
Will the Broncos end up acquiring Rodgers? That remains to be seen. However, based on the current odds, you can see the oddsmakers certainly believe it's a real possibility. At the very least, it's enough of a possibility where the oddsmakers don't want to hang a large number and open themselves up to a potential large liability.
Are the Broncos a good bet even if they acquire Rodgers?
So let's say that you bet on the Broncos to win the Super Bowl next year at the current price of 16-to-1. If Denver does end up completing the trade for Rodgers, their odds will certainly move down. From that perspective, you can celebrate beating the market and getting the best of the number.
However, even if Denver does acquire Rodgers, they'll certainly be overvalued in the market. I could argue that the current price of 16-to-1 is a fair price if they had Rodgers, not just based on the speculation that they could acquire Rodgers.
Even if Denver acquires Rodgers, they won't be favored to win their division over the Chiefs. Justin Herbert and the Chargers have $68 million in cap space this coming offseason. The Raiders just made the playoffs and hired one of the most coveted coaching candidates. That's just their division.
The Titans just finished atop the conference in the regular season. The Bengals represented the AFC in the Super Bowl. The Bills might have won the championship if a coin-flip went their way. The Patriots will only get better in the second year of Mac Jones. The Ravens and Browns were highly regarded teams that fell apart due to key injuries this past year.
The AFC is loaded with talent, and while Rodgers would certainly elevate the Broncos, I'm still not rushing to back Denver next season. The 16-to-1 price on the Broncos is intriguing from a speculation point of view, but definitely not intriguing from a betting perspective.