NFL 2019: Win total over and under tips for new season including New England Patriots, Cleveland Browns and Dallas Cowboys

Andrew Brocker
The Independent

The NFL season may still be just over two months away, but in this article we post our early pre-season team rankings. Our rankings are half art, half science, statistically based with a touch of experienced intuition taking into account off season player and coaching staff movements.

After crunching the numbers and taking player movement into account, our ratings are converted to a points advantage for each team. A team with a plus mark is above average, a minus mark below average with an average team earning a mark of 0.0.

So for example, the New England Patriots are rated first with a rating of +6.7 meaning they are considered 6.7 points better than an average NFL team. At the other end of the table, the Arizona Cardinals have a rating of -7.1.

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If the Patriots were to play the Cardinals today, the Patriots would be considered 13.8 points to the better. If the game were played in New England, we would add the standard 3 points for home field advantage, giving us a predicted margin for the game of New England by 16.8 points. If the game were played in Arizona, we would add 3 points for home field advantage to the Cardinals, making the predicted margin New England by 10.8 points.

Once we have determined each teams rating, we can play out the entire NFL season schedule and come to our own expected win totals for each team. Of course, when there is only a matter of points separating a top half team from a bottom half team, the balance of good or just plain bad luck can determine much of a team’s fortunes across the span of an entire NFL season.

Below are the projected standings for each NFL division based on our projected win totals for the 2019 NFL season.

But we’re not so much concerned with how each team will perform this season. What we are interested in is how our expected win totals compare to those posted, in this case, at bet365.

So without further ado, here are our win total over under bets for every team this coming NFL season.

Odell Beckham Jr has brought glitz to the Browns (AP)
Odell Beckham Jr has brought glitz to the Browns (AP)

BEST BETS

Cleveland Browns

Projected wins: 8.3

Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds 5/6

Minnesota Vikings

Projected wins: 8.6

Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds 5/7

Pittsburgh Steelers

Projected wins: 8.6

Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds 10/13

Green Bay Packers

Projected wins: 8.6

Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds 5/ 6

Arizona Cardinals

Projected wins: 4.7

Bet: Under 5.5 wins at odds 5/7

Quinnen Williams will be a New York Jet (Getty Images)
Quinnen Williams will be a New York Jet (Getty Images)

GOOD BETS

Washington Redskins

Projected wins: 6.4

Bet: Over 5.5 wins at odds ⅝

New York Jets

Projected wins: 7.5

Bet: Over 6.5 wins at odds 5/9

Buffalo Bills

Projected wins: 7.2

Bet: Over 6.5 wins at odds 10/13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Projected wins: 5.7

Bet: Under 6.5 wins at odds ⅚

Cincinnati Bengals​

Projected wins: 5.6

Bet: Under 6.5 wins at odds ⅝

The Rams face a tough ask to come back after losing to Brady and the Patriots (Getty)
The Rams face a tough ask to come back after losing to Brady and the Patriots (Getty)

DECENT BETS

Los Angeles Rams

Projected wins: 11.1

Bet: Over 10.5 wins at odds 4/ 5

Jacksonville Jaguars

Projected wins: 7.7

Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 20/27

Chicago Bears

Projected wins: 8.6

Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds ⅚

Indianapolis Colts

Projected wins: 8.8

Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds Evens

Detroit Lions

Projected wins: 5.8

Bet: Under 6.5 wins at odds 20/27

ONLY FOR A FLUTTER...

Carolina Panthers

Projected wins: 8.0

Bet: Over 7.5 wins at odds 5/6

Tennessee Titans

Projected wins: 7.8

Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 4/6

Kansas City Chiefs

Projected wins: 10.9

Bet: Over 10.5 wins at odds Evens

New Orleans Saints

Projected wins: 11.0

Bet: Over 10.5 wins at odds Evens

Philadelphia Eagles

Projected wins: 9.7

Bet: Over 9.5 wins at odds 10/13

Los Angeles Chargers

Projected wins 9.1

Bet: Under 9.5 wins at odds Evens

New York Giants

Projected wins: 6.6

Bet: Over 6.5 wins at odds 6/5

Atlanta Falcons

Projected wins: 8.1

Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 20/21

Baltimore Ravens

Projected wins: 8.2

Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 10/13

San Francisco 49ers​

Projected wins: 8.0

Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 10/13

Houston Texans

Projected wins: 8.1

Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 10/11

Dallas Cowboys

Projected wins: 8.5

Bet: Under 8.5 wins at odds 6/5

Denver Broncos

Projected wins: 7.5

Bet: Over 7.5 wins at odds 6/5

Miami Dolphins

Projected wins: 5.3

Bet: Under 5.5 wins at odds 5/7

New England Patriots

Projected wins: 11.8

Bet: Over 11.5 wins at odds Evens

Oakland Raiders

Projected wins: 5.5

Bet: Under 5.5 wins at odds 11/10

Seattle Seahawks

Projected wins: 8.6

Bet: Over 8.5 wins at odds 20/21

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