NFC Playoff Picture: Cowboys move out of dangerous 4-seed with Week 10 win
The Dallas Cowboys’ Week 9 loss could have been worse, all things being considered. After falling, embarrassingly, to the Denver Broncos in the early game last week, the Cowboys saw both the Los Angeles Rams and the Green Bay Packers go down in defeat. With three of the five teams in competition for the NFC’s No 1 seed losing, it was a good day for the Arizona Cardinals and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but it could have been really bad for Dallas if the Rams and Packers didn’t go down.
Arizona won their game, while Tampa Bay was on their bye week. The Cowboys fell to the No. 4 seed in the race, as the tiebreaker loser to the Bucs, among the four division leaders. The fourth seed, of course, is the seed to avoid as it will likely match up with the team that doesn’t win the NFC West between the Cards and Los Angeles. Not ideal for a team that looks on pace to have at least 12 wins on the season. Sunday’s Week 10 action gave the Cowboys a bit firmer ground to stand on with seven games left in their season.
Here’s how the action played out.
Cowboys 43, Falcons 3
The Dallas victory moved the team to 7-2 on the year and maintained their 3.5 game lead on Washington and Philadelphia in the NFC East as both of those teams won their contests as well.
The Cowboys’ win increased their odds of making the playoffs to 98% ahead of the Rams’ Monday night contest, according to the New York Times.
Dallas chances of earning the No. 1 seed and hosting the bye week is 19% should the Rams lose on the road to the 49ers and 16% should they pull out the expected victory.
Washington 29, Tampa Bay 19
Washington fans have to be sick that their victory is a great help to the Cowboys’ chances. Ron Rivera and company came off the bye week prepared, and even though they lost Chase Young for the season, have to feel pleased with their performance to improve to 4-6 on the season.
Dallas, quite simply, has to finish ahead of the Buccaneers in the standings after their Week 1 close loss. Head-to-head is the first tiebreaker so any scenario where it’s just Dallas and Tampa, the Bucs win out.
If there’s a multi-team tie, then common opponents comes into play, and Tampa losing to a team Dallas faces twice is important as well.
The loss drops them to 6-3 on the season. Tampa has a 88% chance of making the dance, but their shot at the No. 1 seed sits at just 3% with a Rams win, 10% with a loss.
Carolina 34, Arizona 10
The Cardinals are the only other top contender on Dallas’ 2021 schedule, with a Week 17 matchup at AT&T Stadium on the horizon. The Cardinals now are even in the loss column, falling to 8-2 on the year with their bye week yet to happen.
In their second consecutive game without Kyler Murray, the luster fell off of Colt McCoy and the Panthers – who had both Christian McCaffrey and Cam Newton back, ran all over Arizona.
The Cardinals shot at making the playoffs still sits at 99%-plus and they have a 27% shot of earning the bye prior to Monday night’s affair.
If Los Angeles wins, the Cards shot at home-field advantage falls to 24%, but if they fall then Arizona’s chances shoot up to 30%.
Green Bay 17, Seattle 0
Both clubs got their quarterbacks back with Aaron Rodgers missing a week due to COVID and Russell Wilson missing five games due to a broken finger. The difference in absence was apparent as Wilson made questionable throws all game.
The victory moves Green Bay to 8-2 on the year, now tied with the Cardinals who they own the head-to-head tiebreaker on by virtue of a Week 8 win.
The Packers also have over a 99% chance probability of making the playoffs and a 29% chance at homefield before the Rams contest.
A Rams victory actually increases Green Bay’s chance at the No. 1 seed to 31%, while a loss increases it even further, shooting up to 38%.
The Packers are now in the driver’s seat in the NFC.
The Rams currently have a 97% chance of making the playoffs and 13% chance of earning the bye. If they win, those chances move up to 99% and 19%, respectively. If they fall to the 49ers, their odds drop to 93% to get in and just 7% to get the No. 1 seed.
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