NFC Championship preview: How the 49ers can beat the Rams
And then, there were two.
NFC West rivals square off Sunday with a trip — or at least a short excursion — to Super Bowl LVI on the line. When the Los Angeles Rams kick things off against the San Francisco 49ers, it will be the third meeting this year between these two franchises.
Unfortunately for the Rams and their fans, the first two meetings did not go their way.
Back in Week 10, the 49ers won in dominant fashion, topping the Rams by a final score of 31-10. That game was perhaps notable for how the 49ers began the game, putting together an 18-play drive that covered over 11 minutes of game time, nearly the entire first quarter, that gave the 49ers an early 7-0 lead.
San Francisco followed that with a Pick-Six of Matthew Stafford on the Rams’ ensuing possession, and things were trending in their direction early.
Then in Week 18, with quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo dealing with a thumb injury and the 49ers needing a win to get into the playoffs, San Francisco pulled out a three-point win in overtime, setting the stage for their playoff run.
So how does the third meeting between these teams play out? Do the 49ers make it a perfect 3-0 against the Rams on the season, or does Los Angeles become the second-straight team to play a Super Bowl in their home stadium?
Here is what the 49ers have to do to beat the Rams.
Limit the damage from Cooper Kupp.
(Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports)
A first order of business for DeMeco Ryans and the San Francisco defense this week? Limiting the damage done by standout wide receiver Cooper Kupp.
Kupp has been sensational for Los Angeles this season, catching 145 passes for 1,947 yards and 16 touchdowns, all of which are career-high numbers for the fifth-year receiver. His elite level of production continued into the postseason, as he caught five passes for 61 yards and a touchdown against the Arizona Cardinals in the wild-card round, and followed that up with an epic performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, catching nine passes for 183 yards and a touchdown, including a critical reception late to set up the game-winning field goal.
He has also been impressive against San Francisco this season, catching 18 passes for 240 yards and a touchdown in two games against the 49ers.
While Kupp operates primarily out of the slot, a large selection of his plays this season generally — and against the 49ers — have come with him working downfield off a vertical stem. For example, on this play from Week 18 you see him aligned in the right slot, and release vertically against Dontae Johnson before breaking late towards the boundary:
Now, part of a reason the 49ers advanced to the NFC Championship game is how they limited the damage from another big-play receiver, Davante Adams of the Green Bay Packers. As outlined in this piece, the 49ers relied on a combination of safety help, brackets and true double-teams, and the ability to create some stalemates in one-on-one situations to limit what Adams could do on Saturday night.
You can expect some of those same elements to be in play this weekend. In fact, we have seen the 49ers incorporate some of those ideas into their previous meetings with Kupp. Take a look at this play from Week 18, which finds Kupp aligned as the outside receiver on the left in the Los Angeles empty bunch set. Pay attention to linebacker Fred Warner, who aligns in blitz posture over the left side of the offensive line:
On this play, the 49ers are in Cover 4 (Quarters) coverage but use a cone call on the backside over Kupp. Instead of safety Jimmie Ward working to the three-receiver side and the 49ers leaving Emmanuel Moseley in a “MEG” — man everywhere he goes — technique over Kupp, Ward and Moseley bracket him inside-outside. Ward opens right to Kupp’s route, and only when the ball is thrown to the checkdown does Moseley come off the receiver.
Kupp is going to be a problem for Ryans and the 49ers defense to solve, but having done a good job of limiting the damage from Adams, there is a good chance they can replicate that success in the NFC Championship game.
Neutralize the Rams' pass rush, and good luck with that.
(Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports)
The next step towards earning a spot in the Super Bowl for the 49ers?
Limiting the damage from the imposing Rams defensive front.
You know the names. Aaron Donald, Von Miller and Leonard Floyd. Three players who have combined for 28 sacks this season, and have the ability to destroy pockets — and frankly worlds — on a given snap.
If the 49ers are going to win this game, they will need to find ways to limit what these three can do. That might take the form of a two-pronged approach.
The first prong? Not giving them time to get home. Part of the reason that Kyle Shanahan likely trusted Jimmy Garoppolo in San Francisco’s must-win season finale against the Rams (despite his career 5-0 record against Los Angeles) was the face that Garoppolo is consistently one of the quicker throwers in the league. In his six games last season, Garoppolo had the 12th-quickest time to throw in the league, averaging just 2.52 seconds from snap to release according to Pro Football Focus.
This year? Garoppolo was just as quick, posting an average of 2.55 seconds from snap to release, which ranked fourth in the NFL in 2021.
Drilling down into this a bit more, in Garoppolo’s two games against the Rams this season (Weeks 10 and 18) he posted an average time to throw of 2.33 seconds, even lower than his season average.
The game plan in those games, and in this one, was clear: Get the ball out quickly and do not give those guys a chance to get home. Even when you have to get to a secondary read, like on this completion to Trent Sherfield from Week 18:
Williams was sidelined for the Week 18 meeting with an elbow injury, but we saw some of this in the Week 10 contest. On this third-down conversion to Deebo Samuel, the 49ers use a four-man slide up front, as four blockers slide towards Miller and Donald on the right side. That leaves Williams alone on the left to deal with Floyd, but he has help.
From George Kittle.
A similar scenario played out on this play, with Kittle waiting to release until he is sure that Williams has things handled on the edge:
San Francisco needs to limit the damage done by the Rams defensive front. By getting the ball out of Garoppolo’s hands quickly, and offering help to the tackles left in one-on-one situations, they can accomplish that goal.
Avoid the big Jimmy Garoppolo mistake.
(Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)
This might be the critical piece to the San Francisco 49ers advancing to the Super Bowl.
Jimmy Garoppolo needs to avoid the big mistake.
In the last three games, while dealing first with a thumb injury and now with a shoulder injury, Garoppolo has not exactly played mistake-free football. He threw an interception in the fourth quarter against the Rams with the game knotted at 17, and while Jalen Ramsey did make an incredible juggling catch to secure the turnover, Garoppolo’s throw was behind Kittle and created the opportunity for the turnover.
Against the Dallas Cowboys in the wild-card round, not only did Garoppolo miss a wide open Brandon Aiyuk on a throw that could have gone a long way towards sealing that game, but he also threw an interception in the fourth quarter that gave the Cowboys a chance to mount a late comeback.
Then against the Packers this weekend, Garoppolo threw an interception late in the first half, denying the 49ers a chance to put some points on the board before the halftime break.
Thankfully for San Francisco, the 49ers found ways to overcome those mistakes and win all three games. But if they are going to advance to the Super Bowl, Garoppolo has to avoid making the critical error.
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