Next Gen Stats say Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa among best deep passers in NFL
Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t exactly been credited for his deep-passing ability since entering the NFL as a first-round pick in 2020.
Most say he excels in completing passes underneath and letting his playmakers do the work. That’s not necessarily untrue, as he’s been hitting Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle with impressive efficiency. However, his long balls are working as well.
NFL’s Next Gen Stats show that Tagovailoa had the second-best deep-passing numbers in the league in 2022. He’s higher on the list than Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and a number of other quarterbacks who are typically considered elite deep-ball throwers.
Here’s what the Next Gen Stats had to say about Tagovailoa’s deep passes in 2022:
Deep attempts: 27-of-50, 891 yards, 10:2 TD-INT, 122.1 passer rating
Deep comp: 54%
Deep xComp: 43.6%
Deep CPOE: +10.4%
PASSING SCORE (on deep attempts): 99
“The first half of Tagovailoa’s season sure was special. In Weeks 1-9, Tagovailoa completed 15-of-25 deep attempts for 480 yards, a 5:2 TD-to-INT ratio, a 110.4 passer rating, a 97 passing score and a CPOE of +14.7%. His EPA per deep-pass dropback was an eye-popping +1.27.
This is where you’re expecting me to tell you everything fell apart, given the additional time Tagovailoa missed with concussion issues and Miami’s reduced output over a 3-5 stretch to finish the season. But the QB’s numbers don’t quite fit that narrative: It turns out his performance didn’t vary significantly when comparing the two halves of 2022. The biggest difference in his deep-passing stats the rest of the way ended up being in CPOE, in which Tagovailoa dropped by more than eight percentage points. Otherwise, he posted a perfect 5:0 TD-to-INT ratio from Week 10 on. In other words, he was good — really good — at throwing deep throughout the season, finishing as the only qualifying quarterback in the entire NFL with a deep passing EPA per dropback over 1.
If not for the spectacular year of the top QB on this list, Tagovailoa would have been No. 1. Second place isn’t too bad, either.” – Nick Shook
Only one quarterback was listed above Tagovailoa – the Seattle Seahawks’ Geno Smith. What were his numbers?
Deep attempts: 24-of-51, 719 yards, 13:2 TD-INT ratio, 116.6 passer rating
Deep comp: 47.1%
Deep xComp: 33.8%
Deep CPOE: +13.2%
PASSING SCORE (on deep attempts): 99
Completing deep passes with efficiency isn’t something that’s only on the quarterback. Tagovailoa has also been getting help from two of the league’s top wideouts in Hill and Waddle, who have really been his first weapons that can consistently get open down the field.
We’ll see more of this deep success if Miami’s offensive line finds consistency, as they played a lot of the 2022 season with backups at both tackle spots and left guard. If new offensive line coach Butch Barry can help keep the line together and playing well, Tagovailoa will be able to air it out even more than he already is.
