Week 7 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Bear...UP! Trubisky to stay hot against Pats

Each week the Noise highlights under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week (Scoring thresholds – QB: 18 fpts, RB: 12 fpts, WR: 11 fpts: TE: 10 fpts; .5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 7 Flames in the comments section below.

Mitchell Trubisky, Chi, QB (12% started; Yahoo DFS: $26)
Matchup: vs. NE
Vegas line/total: NE -3.5, 49.5

When Ryan Pace unnecessarily traded up for a one-year college wonder in 2017, Bears Nation was left perplexed. The GM passed on Deshaun Watson. He also didn’t reach for Patrick Mahomes. Under the gun Weeks 1-3, Trubisky and his string of dreadful performances only increased the negative rhetoric. He was indecisive, inaccurate and largely lacking confidence in those matchups — nowhere near the caliber of passer his fellow ’17 draftees were.

Then the Tampa game happened. Possessed by the ghost of Sid Luckman, Trubisky transformed into everything Bears fans hoped and dreamed. His six-TD performance was the single greatest franchise effort in 60-plus years. Following up with a laudable 316-3-1-47 line in a loss at Miami, the sophomore suddenly and remarkably has the look of a cornerstone.

Credit to Matt Nagy’s diligence and formation creativity. Occasional mental miscues will continue, but Trubisky’s increased downfield aggressiveness, accuracy and near-impeccable protection (75.8 clean pocket%) point to additional spectacular fantasy outputs. His opponent this week, New England, ranks seventh in fantasy points allowed to signal callers. Thus far, the Pats have given up 7.1 pass yards per attempt, 277.7 pass yards per game and 15 total touchdowns to QBs. Specifically, Jason McCourty and Stephen Gilmore have only surrendered a combined 82.4 passer rating and 1.18 yards per snap.

Still, in a game with shootout appeal, Chicago’s signal-caller is a highly recommended bye-week filler for Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger and Russell Wilson owners.

Fearless Forecast: 304 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 2 interceptions, 36 rushing yards, 25.8 fantasy points

Kenyan Drake, RB, Mia (41% started; Yahoo DFS: $19)
Matchup: vs. Det
Vegas line/total: OFF

We’re officially living in bizarro world. Patrick Mahomes is the unrivaled QB1 of QB1s. Odell Beckham isn’t even a top-15 fantasy receiver. James Conner is currently the fifth-most valuable RB in the game. Brock Osweiler is doing celebratory Michael Jordan shoulder shrugs against one of the league’s best defenses. And the Jags got trounced by a Dallas team full of Division II-level WRs.

Seriously, what’s next? Josh Gordon churns out repeated top-five performances (we can only hope)?! The only predictable outcomes: Todd Gurley scoring and Amari Cooper sucking.

Drake’s loathsome production is another one of the virtual game’s strangest turns. After posting a December to remember last year and setting the pace for all RBs in yards after contact per attempt, the versatile rusher had the appearance of a reliable RB2. Weirdly, though, he’s mostly taken a backseat to Frank Gore, who I’m growing increasingly convinced is a real-life vampire.

Through six weeks, Drake has tallied a mere 54.6 percent of the opportunity share, ranking RB28 in fantasy points per game. His YAC number (2.63), missed tackle rate (23%, RB10) and propensity for explosive runs (No. 8 in breakaway run rate) lend encouragement, but a sharp dip in yards created per carry and his general under-utilization say otherwise.

However, in the virtual game’s first cumbersome bye week, he’s very employable. For the second straight week, Miami hosts an NFC North foe — this time, the much friendlier Lions. On the season, Detroit has conceded 5.98 yards per carry, 195.4 total yards per game, five total touchdowns and the sixth-most fantasy points to RBs. Yes, he’ll continue to work in tandem with the Prince of Darkness, but the matchup is too alluring to ignore. Look for the redeemable RB to finish on a high note this weekend.

Fearless Forecast: 12 attempts, 51 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 27 receiving yards, td, 15.8 fantasy points

Kerryon Johnson, RB, Det (38% started; Yahoo DFS: $21)
Matchup: at Mia
Vegas line/total: OFF

After an extended period presumably filled with beard oiling, pencil sharpening and deep reflection, one can only hope Matt Patricia has finally come to his senses; Johnson needs the ball. When granted opportunities, the rookie from Auburn has shined brightly. He ranks RB14 in yards created per carry (1.40), RB1 in catch percentage (86.7) and RB21 in YAC per attempt (2.86).

LeGarrette Blount, meanwhile, is nowhere close to the top-40 in any of those categories. In this fantasy story — a likely different outcome than Aesop’s — the veteran is very much the tortoise; the rookie, the hare.

Similar to many backfield situations throughout the league, Detroit is unpredictable to say the least. Johnson, who’s seen a stacked front 12 percent of the time, should make the most of his touches in Week 6. With Miami forced to account for Golden Tate, Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, he’s likely to take advantage on his customary 12-15 grips.

Space eater Vincent Taylor has excelled in gap coverage this season, but no other Dolphin defender ranks inside the top-45 in run-stop percentage according to Pro Football Focus. As a unit, Miami has given up 4.06 yards per carry, 166.8 total yards per game, eight touchdowns and the fifth-most fantasy points to RBs on the year. Do the right thing, Patricia. Feed the youngster.

Fearless Forecast: 13 attempts, 57 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 16 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.8 fantasy points

Pierre Garcon, SF, WR (7% started; Yahoo DFS: $12)
Matchup: vs. LAR
Vegas line/total: LAR -10, 52.5

Last season, when C.J. Beathard first gazed upon No. 15 it was a true coupe de fourde. In three games together, the QB targeted Garcon 23 times, connecting on 12 receptions for 121 yards and no scores. Sparks haven’t cooled in the moments since. After Jimmy Garoppolo succumbed to an ACL injury four weeks ago, Beathard immediately rekindled his on-field romance with the receiver, tossing him 25 passes in three games. The workload would set any fantasy owner’s heart aflutter, but the results haven’t exactly been bursting.

Since Week 4, Garcon ranks WR74 in .5 PPR per game output, the lowest placed receiver with the highest targets yield over that stretch. Can you say “inefficient?” Overall, his 5.7 yard per target (WR91), 48.5 catch percentage (WR90) and 1.05 fantasy points per target (WR98) leave much to be desired.

Still, in these lean weeks any receiver generating target volume is worth serious consideration at WR3, especially when matched against the freehanded Rams. Wonderfully charitable post-Aqib Talib injury, L.A. has allowed eight touchdowns and the most fantasy points to WRs over the past three weeks.

Garcon’s likely dance partner, Marcus Peters, is far from formidable. On 193 snaps, he’s allowed a 74.1 catch percentage, five touchdowns, 133.6 passer rating and 1.53 yards per snap. Among the 74 corners who’ve played at least 50 percent of his team’s snaps, Peters ranks No. 72 in overall coverage according to PFF. If you’re in dire need, fire up Frenchy.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 62 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.7 fantasy points

David Njoku, TE, Cle (48% started; Yahoo DFS: $18)
Matchup: at TB
Vegas line/total: TB -3, 49.5

This past summer, many fantasy fans were introduced to the stunning potential of Njoku through the power of documentary television. On “Hard Knocks,” the tight end exhibited a confident and infectious personality. Catching balls from a JUGS machine shirtless certainly played into that. His alarming number of drops throughout the summer once again raised questions about consistency, but since Baker Mayfield supplanted Tyrod Taylor as the Browns starter, Njoku has finally tapped into his immense upside.

Over the past three weeks, the pair have formed a chemistry not seen in Cleveland seemingly since the Bernie Kosar/Webster Slaughter days. Despite his undulated play, Baker is the franchise’s solution to its long-running QB riddle. When on, he’s accurate and judicious. On the surface, his 81.4 passer rating and 58.9 completion rate paint another picture, but the kid has moxie and will only continue to attack defenses (7.8 ypa).

Without much to work with, Mayfield has made Njoku his favorite target. Lined up in the crosshairs 30 times the past three weeks, the tight end has posted the eighth-most valuable line at the position, collecting 18 receptions for 176 yards and a TD. Also No. 11 among TEs in total yards after the catch and No. 5 in average target separation, he’s definitely found a groove. Slated to exchange pleasantries with a Tampa defense that’s allowed 7.2 receptions per game, 97.2 receptions per game and three total touchdowns to tight ends — equal to the most fantasy points surrendered — he’s a top-five option in a bye week for Jimmy Graham, Jared Cook and Vance McDonald.

Fearless Forecast: 7 receptions, 73 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.8 fantasy points

WEEK 7 SHOCKER SPECIAL (Under 10% started)

D.J. Moore, Car, WR (2% started; Yahoo DFS: $14)
Matchup: at Phi
Vegas line/total: Phi -4.5, 45.5

Formulating and executing fair trades in fantasy is paramount to sustaining long-term success. No one should fleece their opponent, but chasing rest-of-season upside is everything. Last week, while hanging in the green room prior to “Fantasy Football Live” yours truly and Andy Behrens agreed to the swap of the century, one that rivaled the fabled exchange of beads by Dutch settlers to the Lenape for Manhattan.

I sent Larry Fitzgerald. Behrens reciprocated with Moore. Earth-shattering, we know. On the surface, many will say “The Reverend” took me to vacation Bible school, but strip away names for a minute. Moore has outpaced Fitz in per game average, though unspectacularly. The rookie, whose role continues to expand with each passing week — his 17 routes run in Week 6 set a new benchmark — is about to throw a coming out party. Carolina is blessed with THE easiest remaining fantasy schedule for WRs. Currently No. 4 in yards per target (12.5) and No. 6 in fantasy points per target (2.68), he’s on the precipice of a breakout.

It may happen this week in Philadelphia. The Eagles, clipped often by the pass, have allowed 7.3 pass yards per attempt and the seventh-most fantasy points to wideouts. Pulling back the veil, Ronald Darby, Jalen Mills and Sidney Jones have yielded a very generous 1.32 yards per snap to their assignments. The versatile Moore, who’s played at least 25 percent of his snaps at every receiver position this year and is deployed occasionally as a rusher, is worth spinning the wheel at WR3 in 12-team and deeper leagues.

Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 53 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 12 rushing yards, 14.5 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 7 FLAMES (Under 50% started)

RB: Marlon Mack, Ind (vs. Buf; $17) – Cue Mark Morrison…Return of the Mack. There it is! Return of the Mack. C’mon. Shaking off the rust the past two weeks, it’s become abundantly clear that the Indy rusher has noticeable fantasy appeal. Against the Pats and Jets he logged 48.1 percent of the opportunity share, tallying 3.8 YAC per attempt and 3.08 yards created per carry. The Colts rank in the bottom half in run-blocking efficiency, but they should displace multiple Bills. Buffalo has coughed up the 12th-most fantasy points to RBs. Get Mack back up in the game. (FF: 13 atts, 54 yds, 1 rec, 6 yds, td, 12.5 fpts)

RB: Royce Freeman, Den (at Ari; $17) – When it comes to RB matchups, the Arizona Cardinals are the Kanye 00000 passcode. No defense has surrendered more fantasy points to the position. On the year, the deep-fried desert birds have yielded 4.55 yards per carry, 195.3 total yards per game and eight total TDs to RBs. Yes, Royce has failed to live up to my mammoth expectations, but it’s not due to mistranslated skills. He’s one of four RBs who ranks top-10 in YAC per attempt missed tackle percentage and yards created per carry. Start him and Phillip Lindsay with supreme confidence at RB2/FLEX. (11 atts, 68 yds, 2 recs, 8 yds, td, 14.6 fpts)

RB: Nick Chubb, Cle (at TB; $12) – Hue Jackson would struggle constructing a peanut butter and jelly sandwich. The man’s coaching incompetence makes Vance Joseph or Mike McCoy seem like Vince Lombardi. His latest presumed fabrication: “We need to get Chubb more carries.” An ongoing narrative uttered by Jackson the past couple weeks, the rookie remains fixed in Carlos Hyde’s shadow (9.3 opportunity%). Will he emerge? This week it’s possible. Tampa has given up 136.0 total yards per game, eight scores and the eighth-most fantasy points to RBs in five contests. Hyde, who flopped last week against the Chargers, shouldn’t carry the rock 19 times per game. (FF: 9 atts, 61 yds, td, 12.1 fpts)

WR: Sterling Shepard, NYG (at Atl; $21) – Outside of thighs god Saquon Barkley, the New York Giants offense is dead and bloated. Odell Beckham’s interactions with inanimate objects have made more headlines than his numbers. Mouth agape Eli Manning pics continuously flood social media streams. And the normally reserved Shepard has started to express his frustrations openly. Welcome to rock bottom, G-men. This week, however, presents a prime opportunity to reverse course. Atlanta, down multiple defensive starters, is a very beatable team vertically. Against slot corner Brian Poole, who’s allowed 1.21 yards per snap, a 121.1 passer rating and 71.4 catch percentage this year, Shepard leads the flock. (FF: 6 recs, 76 yds, td, 15.6 fpts)

WR: Mike Williams, LAC (at Ten (London); $17) – For the slumping TD-dependent wide receiver, Week 7 presents the perfect opportunity to wash off the funk. It’s shocking, but Titans defender Malcolm Butler is a Costco free sample dispenser in corner form. Through six weeks, he’s conceded 2.31 yards per snap, 139.2 passer rating and 70.7 catch percentage to assignments – all top-10 among 111 DBs tracked by Pro Football focus. Because Williams lines up left over 40 percent of the time, he should tango with Butler most often (82.2% right alignment). (FF: 3 recs, 67 yds, td, 14.2 fpts)

DST: Indianapolis Colts (vs. Buf; $17) – Raked over the coals by this blathering dolt, the Colts defense hasn’t been as feeble as originally believed. Thanks to Darius Leonard and Margus Hunt, Indy has tallied the third-most sacks in the NFL (19) and ranks middle of the pack in fantasy points per game. Buffalo, which will trot out turnover Santa Claus Nate Peterman Derek Anderson with Josh Allen ailing (elbow), is a primo matchup. Bills passers have absorbed 24 sacks this season. Also, Buffalo has served up 11 turnovers. Saddle up the ponies.

#TEAMHUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK
Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their “Flames” (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Tuesdays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader record: 16-28

Brad record: 26-40 (WK6 3-7 W: Andy Dalton, Dallas D/ST, Cameron Brate, L: Baker Mayfield, Josh Gordon, Wendell Smallwood, DeSean Jackson, Mike Davis, Isaiah Crowell, Courtland Sutton, DNS: Josh Reynolds, Alfred Morris)

Want to bull rush Brad? Follow him on Twitter @YahooNoise. Also check out his TV show, “The Fantasy Football Hour,” now available in 91 million households on various regional sports networks, and his award-nominated podcast, “The Fantasy Record.”