Fantasy is a speculative game. Predict the future, and you look like a genius. Don’t, and you’re painfully human. Gazing into the crystal ball, here’s our view on six intriguing over/unders for Week 3.
Donning the DFS cap, what commodity is terribly UNDERVALUED in Week 3?
Dalton – MELVIN GORDON ($22). He’s looked great this year and should be more active in the passing game with Danny Woodhead out for the season. The Colts have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing backs this year, making Gordon a steal at this price.
Brandon – TYRELL WILLIAMS ($13) – The unheralded Charger stepped up last week with Keenan Allen out and delivered a TD to go with 61 yards. This week, Williams will face a banged-up Colts defense that allows 299 passing yards per game and a QB Rating north of 106. And, if TE Antonio Gates can’t play because of a hamstring injury, that means an even bigger role for Williams and Travis Benjamin in the passing game. Williams has a great shot at 75-plus yards and another score this week.
Brad – CHRISTINE MICHAEL ($14). “Shot out of a cannon,” according to Pete Carroll last week, Michael amassed 6.0 yards per carry against a rock solid Rams front. This week facing a kinder, gentler foe in San Francisco (4.5 ypc allowed to CAR RBs in Week 2) and with Thomas Rawls unhealthy, the metrics darling is on track to head up the timeshare. Projecting 15-plus touches, the No. 6 ranked RB in evaded tackles weaves his way to 80-plus yards and a score.
Scott – This is probably your last chance to get STEFON DIGGS at $17. Please do so. They didn’t even ask me this question, but I wanted it on the board.
Conversely, what DFS option is the most OVERVALUED in Week 3?
Brandon – RUSSELL WILSON ($35) – Wilson is the fourth-highest priced QB this week – I have him ranked 13th, and I feel like my homerism may have even gotten the better of me by ranking him that high. With the high ankle sprain, there’s just no real hope at the moment that he can pad his stats on the ground. I do think Seattle will spread out the offense more this week and do more from passing formations, which will lead to serviceable passing numbers, but he’d need to also have the ability to hurt the 49ers with his legs for me to even consider him top 5 QB worthy.
Brad – DEMARYIUS THOMAS ($21). Thus far, Adam Jones and Dre Kirkpatrick have placed a stranglehold on the opposition allowing a combined 20.5 passer rating. DT and Emmanuel Sanders have openly complained about their lack of highlight-worthy catches. Usually, the squeaking wheel gets the grease, but in a hostile environment and given the unfriendly opponent, DT is 10,000 percent avoidable.
Scott – I don’t see how anyone can play RUSSELL WILSON ($35) at his big ticket until we know his ankle is sound. And you know how the high-ankle injuries go, that’s a multiple-week problem. And while I’m generally a JORDAN REED fan ($30), it’s hard to trust him while Kirk Cousins is in this current funk.
DUMPSTER DIVING. With shovel in hand, what player under 25-percent started should fantasy owners insert into their lineups?
Brad – CHRIS IVORY. On track to return from his brief, yet for unknown reasons, hospitalization, he should instantly be thrust into the the lead role for a Jags team desperate to establish balance after “Total Junk” Yeldon set new marks in inefficiency (2.7 ypt). The Ravens front is better than what the numbers bear, but Ivory, who forced 5.3 missed tackles per game last year and averaged 4.3 yards per carry, has a good shot at 70 yards and a score.
Scott – PHILIP DORSETT is ready to spike now that Donte Moncrief is out of the way in Naptown. Don’t let Indy’s Week 2 crash get you down, the Broncos defense (at home) does that to a lot of opponents.
Liz – QUINCY ENUNWA. After scoring in Week 1 and amassing over 90 receiving yards in Week 2, Enunwa is off to a promising start. With Brandon Marshall banged up, the WR/TE hybrid has a chance to shine again at Arrowhead. Gaining confidence in the offense and an uptick of targets, Enunwa figures to benefit from softer coverage and produce WR3 stats for fantasy managers.
Ryan Tannehill has come out firing in Adam Gase’s aggressive vertical attack, ranking No. 11 in fantasy points per game. Standard fantasy points this week against visiting Cleveland, 19.9.
Scott – OVER. I was actually going to use Tannehill for the above question until I realized he was a featured item here. Can we trust Miami’s running backs? Heck no. Can we get well off Cleveland’s spotty secondary? Heck yes. And with DeVante Parker back in the mix, Tannehill has multiple options to look for.
Liz – UNDER. It’s close. Yes, the Browns are that bad. No, Miami can’t run the ball. And yes, Tanny has a cadre of above average pass catchers at his disposal. But I just can’t project him throwing for over 300 yards. I’d rather have Philip Rivers @ IND for the same price in DFS this week.
Andy – UNDER. I’m willing to give Tannehill a 280-yard, 2-touchdown, 1-INT projection against the Browns, which ain’t bad. You can certainly win a fantasy matchup with a line like that. But my forecast doesn’t quite get him to 20 standard fantasy points. I honestly cannot imagine using Tannehill in a non-bye week, unless you’re playing in a jumbo league.
Golden Tate has been fantasy pyrite thus far, failing to surpass the 50-yard mark in his first two games. Receiving yards for the clawless Lion this week at Green Bay, 69.5.
Liz – UNDER. After Jim Bob Cooter was installed as the Lions’ offensive coordinate in Week 8 of last year, Tate averaged just 55 yards per game. That pattern appears to have carried over into the current season. In possession of an impressive ability after the catch, Tate has the talent to break off a big play at any moment. However, the plethora of short yardage weapons in this offense make it hard to bank on Tate’s upside.
Andy – UNDER. You basically never want to bet the over on yardage with Tate. Last season he averaged just 9.0 yards per reception. Detroit simply doesn’t use him as a field-stretching deep threat. He’s really only of interest to the PPR community (where I assume he is adored).
Dalton – OVER. Marvin Jones has emerged as Detroit’s clear No. 1 option in the passing game, but Tate did see nine targets last week. This game projects to be a shootout (the over/under is 48), with the Lions likely playing from behind, so there should be plenty of pass attempts. Green Bay has allowed the seventh-most yards to opposing wide receivers this season, so I’m expecting a nice bounce back game from Tate.
What overturned backfield will yield the strongest fantasy performance in Week 3 — MIAMI, MINNESOTA or CAROLINA? Also, please include which rusher leads the way with a projection.
Dalton – All three of these situations are mostly a mess for fantasy owners, but I’ll go with MINNESOTA, with Matt Asiata scoring from the goal line and Jerick McKinnon totaling 80 yards with a handful of catches.
Andy – I’ll take the VIKINGS, with little confidence. I’m assuming MATT ASIATA will get, say, 13 carries for 19 yards and three touchdowns, because that’s the story of his career.
Brandon – MIAMI. None of these backfields excite me this week, but I’ll go with Miami because I think game flow (read: getting a comfortable lead against a Kessler-led Browns offense that loses top receiver Corey Coleman) will best serve the Dolphins RBs. I don’t think Jay Ajayi is anything special, but volume should be there for him, and might also be there for rookie backup Kenyan Drake.