Week 13 Fantasy Flames: Kaepernick likely goldmine in Chicago

Every week the Noise highlights 12 under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Thresholds – QB: 18 fpts, RB: 13 fpts, WR: 11 fpts: TE: 10 fpts; .5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 13 Flames in the comments section below.

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Colin Kaepernick, SF, QB (20 percent started, $32 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: at Chi
At this current moment in time, who’s more trustworthy: Cam Newton or Kap? What about Matt Ryan or Kap? Serious question. And, no, my judgement isn’t impaired by an adult beverage. In terms of floor, the Gold Panner’s is arguably the highest in Fantasyland. His wayward throws, imperfect touch and membership on arguably the NFC’s worst team, disguise an otherwise highly reliable fantasy producer. Because of his ability to tuck and run (62.2 rush yards per game), he’s a regular 20-point contributor in standard Yahoo leagues. In fact, since Week 9, he’s averaged 25.7 in such formats, outpacing the likes of Cam, Drew Brees and even Tom Brady. Throw in his strangely solid 34.6 deep-ball completion rate and Kaepernick has transformed into one of the virtual game’s finest multi-category assets, despite an unattractive 6.9 YPA. Another across-the-board bonanza should be expected this week. Chicago, which nearly blew its opportunity to land the No. 2 overall pick last week vs. Tennessee, is going through the motions. Down several integral bodies on offense and defense, the Bears are placing themselves in position to land Clemson QB DeShaun Watson. On the year, they’ve surrendered 17.7 fantasy points per game, 7.2 pass yards per attempt and four multi-TD passers in their past five games. More specifically, starting corners Tracy Porter and Cre’von LeBlanc have given up a combined 90.7 passer rating. Folks, it’s time to embrace Kaepernick as a viable weekly QB1.

Fearless Forecast: 253 passing yards, 1 passing touchdown, 73 rushing yards, 1 rushing touchdown, 1 turnover, 26.4 fantasy points

Theo Riddick, Det, RB (58 percent started, $20)
Matchup: at NO
Only a few short weeks ago, almost everyone in the greater Detroit area, fantasy enthusiasts or not, were more than willing to strum the washboard in Jim Bob Cooter’s jug band. The offense, humming along almost uninterrupted, sliced and diced opponents with surgical precision. From Weeks 1-6, the Lions averaged 25 points and 349.3 total yards per game. Since then, however, they’ve been mostly off key, particularly Riddick. Over his past three games, the rusher hasn’t ventured inside the position’s top-20, averaging an uneventful 72.3 total yards per game. In a similar vein as Duke Johnson, Dion Lewis and Darren Sproles, Riddick, despite the downturn, remains one of the league’s better scat backs. He’s caught 78.7 percent his passes and ranks top-12 in fantasy points per opportunity at his position. This week, in a matchup likely to overwork the scoreboard operator, he should be relied upon even in 10-team leagues. The Saints D has turned a corner in recent weeks, but, as witnessed last Sunday vs. L.A., Brees typically presses visitors into high volumes. To keep pace with Bayou Rambo, Matthew Stafford will chuck it upwards of 50 times, a workload that’s sure to benefit Riddick. It’s also important to note, New Orleans has allowed nearly 5.0 receptions per game to RBs. It’s been a rocky stretch for the Lion, but this is the week he breaks loose.

Fearless Forecast: 10 carries, 43 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 68 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 20.1 fantasy points

Kenneth Dixon, Bal, RB (8 percent started, $13)
Matchup: vs. Mia
For weeks the fantasy community has waited with bated breath for the Dixon breakout. During that time, we’ve witnessed multiple missed PATs, several Cam costume changes, senseless excessive celebration penalties and one Browns wi … err … persistent Cleveland futility. But there are clear-cut signs the rookie is about to finally live up to the hype. Last week, he out-snapped (31-23) and out-touched (17-16) sluggish complement Terrance West for the first time, an occurrence that’s sure to become a regularity as we sprint toward the finish line. The LA Tech product is, frankly, superior to the veteran in most categories. He’s more elusive (No. 2 in tackles avoided per attempt among qualifying RBs), a more dynamic pass catcher and tougher after initial contact (3.1 YAC last three weeks). Anyone with functional eyes realizes it, including the Ravens coaching staff. Up to speed on protections, he should command more of the opportunity share starting in Week 13, possibly surging past 20 touches. His opponent, Miami, has tightened screws over its past six games. During that span, the ‘Fins have allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. However, they also surrendered 4.1 yards per carry and 4.8 receptions per game to the position, promising vulnerabilities for an ultra-versatile back. Even if he falters, additional opportunities are on the horizon (at NE, PHI, at PIT). If he gains the upper-hand, the youngster has substantial fantasy hero potential. Don’t stop believin.’

Fearless Forecast: 13 carries, 57 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 28 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.5 fantasy points

Sammy Watkins, Buf, WR (25 percent started, $21)
Matchup: at Oak
Not long ago, Watkins’ season hung in the balance. A broken foot forced him to injured reserve, a projected eight-week absence which promptly caused fantasy owners to feed him to the wolves. Even right before his activation uncertainty loomed. Disputing reports about his true health left many bewildered. Essentially, most viewed him as a stab in the dark. But last week’s triumphant return answered questions. He played on just 25 snaps, but he caught all three of Tyrod Taylor’s intended looks, dialing up 80 yards, including a beautiful 62-yard connection on a sideline streak. Endurance and conditioning were clear issues, but when on the field he showcased the down-field burst and separation that last year made him one of the most feared long-range receivers in the league. With the rust removed and expected to see a massive uptick in snap/targets share, he needs to find a way into your lineup. Oakland has made strides in several defensive categories over the past few weeks. In fact, since Week 6, the Raiders rank No. 9 in fewest fantasy points conceded to WRs. Cover man Sean Smith, who over the first third of the season yielded a 100-plus passer rating to his assignments, under 60 since, is the primary reason for the turnaround. Still, Watkins’ explosiveness and anticipated volume arrow to strong WR2 numbers, especially in a game with shootout appeal (50 over/under in Vegas). Get Buff.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 89 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 17.4 fantasy points

[Week 13 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]

Tyreek Hill, KC, WR (12 percent started, $18)
Matchup: vs. Atl
Hill spins his wheels with the fervor of a Red Bull-charged hamster. The dude can seriously fly. Showcasing serious multipurpose skills against Denver’s suffocating defense, he joined the legendary Gale Sayers as the only player in NFL history to record a receiving, rushing and return touchdown in the same game. Unreal. His lightning quicks (4.34 40-yard), rabbit cuts and reliable hands (78.3 catch rate) are almost beyond comprehension. In tequila terms, he’s Don Julio 1942; Tavon Austin, Pepe Lopez. With his targets share and scoring variability on the rise, he’s a near irrefutable WR3 for the homestretch, including this week vs. visiting Atlanta. Down Desmond Trufant, the Falcons are a highly exploitable opponent. Remaining DBs, Robert Alford and Jalen Collins, have yielded a combined 10.1 fantasy points per game to their assignments. Overall, only eight WRs have tallied at least 10 fantasy points against Richard Smith’s secondary. Again, Trufant’s absence is a major blow. Kansas City’s offensive game plan is stupid conservative, but given Hill’s uniqueness, growing role and the potential absence of Jeremy Maclin another week, he’s a legit top-24 option in season long and a recommended DFS buy.

Fearless Forecast: 6 receptions, 55 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 11 rushing yards, 15.6 fantasy points

WEEK 13 SHOCKER SPECIAL (Under 10 percent started)

Marquess Wilson, Chi, WR (3 percent started, $16)
Matchup: vs. SF
Remember this guy? Last year, Wilson was a waiver wire leviathan. Rising to the surface in Weeks 4 and 5, he took advantage of increased opportunities with Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal temporarily sidelined. During that brief stint, Jay Cutler leaned heavily on the versatile weapon, connecting with him 12 times (on 17 targets) for 145 yards and a touchdown. Though he only reached the 60-yard mark one additional time and failed to find the end zone, his abbreviated effort left a lasting impression. Shelved on the PUP due to a foot injury over the regular season’s first 10 weeks, Wilson has again become a valuable replacement. With Jeffery serving his suspension, the passed over wideout drew the start Week 12 versus Tennessee, this time becoming the object of Matt Barkley’s affection. On 11 targets, he snagged a career-high eight passes for 125 yards and a touchdown. If not for a couple of horrendous drops, his day would’ve tasted even sweeter. That performance was no anomaly. Sans Jeffery and Zach Miller, Barkley is sure to lock, load and fire in No. 11’s direction often again. San Francisco, an overly forgiving defense that made Ryan Tannehill look good last week, is a highly combustible club. Corner Tramaine Brock has performed suitably at times, but, as a whole, the Niners have surrendered a staggering 14 double-digit WRs this year, the most in the league. Debate Wilson’s WR3 merits in deeper leagues.

Fearless Forecast: 6 receptions, 84 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 17.4 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 13 FLAMES

#TEAMHUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK
Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their “Flames” (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Tuesdays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader record: 28-56

Noise season record: 50-80 (Week 12: 5-6; W: Rishard Matthews, Dak Prescott, Carson Wentz, Tim Hightower, Oakland D/ST; L: Rashad Jennings, Tyler Boyd, Dion Lewis, Bilal Powell, Zach Ertz, James Starks; DNP: Mike Gillislee)

Follow Brad on Twitter (@YahooNoise) and check out his new TV show, ‘The Fantasy Football Hour,’ Wednesdays on Altitude TV (Channel 681 on DirecTV, 412 on DISH).