Champions League projections: The Final Four

Shahan Ahmed

After correctly picking seven of the eight quarterfinalists in the UEFA Champions League, AccuScore

simulated the first and second legs of each quarterfinal pairing 10,000 times to project that Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund will advance to the semifinals.

Of all the quarterfinal pairings, AccuScore predicted that the matchup between Bayern Munich and Juventus was the toughest to call. Bayern, however, was slightly preferred to advance at 53.6 percent. The Bavarians fueled the projections with a 9-2 Saturday slaughter of Hamburg to maintain their healthy 20-point lead and record-setting pace in the Bundesliga.

To accentuate Bayern’s depth and dominance, Claudio Pizarro scored four goals on Saturday, and he does not even expect to start against Juventus. Due largely to its superior talent level and domestic dominance, Bayern Munich is projected to advance over Juventus. Juve’s status as the best team in Italy also maintained pace with a 2-1 win over Inter Milan in Saturday’s Derby d’Italia.

Spanish giants Real Madrid and Barcelona both drew in league play over the weekend, but both are projected to advance to the semis. Of the two, Real Madrid faces slightly tougher opposition, as Didier Drogba, Wesley Sneijder, and Galatasaray are 35.7 percent to advance. However, the power and quality of Cristiano Ronaldo and the latest assembly of Madrid multi-millionaires are expected to expose the Turkish club over two legs.

For Barcelona, Zlatan Ibrahimovic poses a threat after having his ban lifted, but Paris Saint-Germain is also likely not mature enough as a familiar unit to overcome Lionel Messi and Barcelona. Incidentally, both Barcelona and PSG have also established comfortable leads in their respective domestic leagues, so the Champions League will get full focus from April 2 to April 10 for all teams involved.

[More AccuScore: Bayern Munich, Juventus collide in classic matchup]

Of the four pairings, the computer predicted Dortmund to have the easiest matchup. The black and yellow team from Germany advanced in 72.2 percent of simulations. Worth noting, however, is that Malaga was the one team AccuScore did not correctly project to advance out of the round of 16.

With two months remaining in the European football season, Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Juventus, and Paris Saint-German are all in position to win domestic titles this season. Only two of those four probable champions will make the Champions League semifinals.

At this stage in the Champions League, there is no question that this competition is aptly named.

Champions League Semi-Final Odds





Bayern Munich


Paris St-Germain






Real Madrid






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