Bayern Munich heavily favored to beat Borussia Dortmund in UEFA Champions League Final

Shahan Ahmed

Saturday’s UEFA Champions League Final features the top two clubs in Germany, and Bayern Munich is a clear favorite over Borussia Dortmund for odds-makers and AccuScore's simulation computer.

Considering Bayern has dominated domestically and continentally, it is easy to see why Las Vegas bookmakers are offering only about $40 for every $100 bet on Bayern winning Saturday. To put that into percentages, AccuScore calculated a 68 percent probability of Bayern flying back to Germany with the Champions League trophy in hand.

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Head to head, Dortmund has won five of the last nine meetings between the clubs, but this season, Bayern broke Dortmund's spell. Bayern faced Dortmund in four matches during the 2012-13 campaign and recorded two wins, two draws and no losses.

In the season-opening German Super Cup, Munich defeated Dortmund 2-1 with the attacking trio of Mario Mandzukic, Robert Lewandowski and Thomas Muller each earning a tally on the score sheet. It was no coincidence that the trio of forwards highlight AccuScore’s most likely goal scorers for the Champions League Final at Wembley Stadium in London.

Both of this season's league matches between the Bundesliga giants ended in 1-1 draws, and the latest encounter featured watered-down lineups for both sides with several key players spectating from the sidelines.

Dortmund and Munich also met in the quarterfinal of the German Cup this season. Arjen Robben played hero at the Allianz Arena to lead Munich to a 1-0 win, and Dortmund, which won the domestic cup the previous two seasons, was eliminated as a result. Along with the aforementioned trio of forwards, Robben is another name likely to find his way onto the score sheet.

[Related: Bayern Munich finally embracing its anti-Nazi past]

Robben and company went on to advance to the final of the German Cup, and that match will be played the weekend following the Champions League Final. If Bayern wins its final two matches before the summer break, it will cap a perfect season of four trophies from four competitions: German Super Cup, German Bundesliga, German Cup and UEFA Champions League.

To highlight its special season, Bayern dominated the domestic league and finished an astronomical 25 points ahead of second-place Dortmund – a record. The Bavarian giants also set Bundesliga records for clean sheets (21), most wins (29), most away wins (15) and overall points (91). In all, Bayern Munich equaled or broke enough Bundesliga records during the 2012-13 campaign that tabbing the list of records Bayern did not break is an easier endeavor than listing all the records the 2012-13 Bayern Munich squad now holds.

In Europe, Bayern played a perfect quarterfinals and semifinals en route to Saturday’s final. The Germans defeated Juventus, the Italian champion, and Barcelona, the Spanish champion, by an aggregate score of 11-0 over four matches.

Leading up to Saturday’s final, Bayern Munich has already convinced the world that it is the best team in Germany and Europe, but if Dortmund was to walk away as an upset winner, Munich’s dream season of success would quickly transform into a nightmare campaign of failure.


Player, Team


Mario Mandzukic, Bayern Munich

35 percent

Robert Lewandowski, Borussia Dortmund

34 percent

Arjen Robben, Bayern Munich

32 percent

Thomas Muller, Bayern Munich

26 percent

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