Randall Cobb Fantasy Value in 2017

During the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers era Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and James Jones all regressed in touchdowns after they reached double-digit touchdowns for the first time.

So for those fantasy owners who think Davante Adams (who just put up double-digit touchdowns for the first time) will have another big touchdown year…well they may want to reconsider.

Both Adams and Nelson will regress in touchdowns in 2017 and Randall Cobb will be the biggest beneficiary.

Cobb disappointed most fantasy owners in 2016, as he finished the year outside of the top 50 wide receivers in both standard and point-per-reception leagues formats.

Cobb only had over 100 yards receiving once and played in less than 65 percent of the offensive snaps for the Green Bay.

Cobb was battling injuries throughout the year but is entering 2017 fully healthy and more importantly with a healthy Jordy Nelson.

In 2015, without Nelson, Cobb led the team in both red zone targets and overall targets. However, Cobb only finished as the 28th and 25th wide receiver in standard and point-per-reception leagues respectively.

Transversely, Cobb’s best season by far was in 2014, when Nelson finished better overall as the number one receiver on the team. Cobb finished as the 6th and 8th wide receiver in standard and point-per-reception formats respectively.

This is important because it shows that Cobb really performs his best in fantasy when he is complementary number two receiver. But last year, he ended up as the number three and if he ends up behind Adams again, this raises some concern for Cobb’s fantasy value.

However, there are many reasons to believe that Cobb will be back as the number two receiver for the Packers in 2017.

Fantasy owners will see a regression from Nelson and Adams in terms of total touchdowns. Since 2012 only one pair of wide receiver teammates (Eric Decker and Demaryius Thomas) have gone back to back seasons scoring double-digit touchdowns.

This happened under extreme circumstances when Peyton Manning averaged 47 passing touchdowns over those two seasons.

Rodgers is an excellent quarterback, but he has only averaged 35.5 touchdowns over the last two seasons and has a career high of 45 passing touchdowns, so it unlikely Rodgers can match those numbers.

Additionally, Nelson has never had back to back seasons with double-digit touchdowns, and Adams just had his first season with double-digit touchdowns.

Nelson has been consistent throughout his career and has shown great chemistry with Rodgers, which is why his regression will not be too drastic.

Adams’ situation is slightly different though, as wide receivers’ touchdown totals after their first season scoring double-digit touchdowns show eye-opening information that does not work in his favor.

Of the 54 wide receivers who scored double-digit touchdowns for the first time in their careers since 2004, only four of them scored more touchdowns the following season (Demaryius Thomas Denver Broncos, Dez Bryant Dallas Cowboys, Odell Beckham Jr. New York Giants, and Plaxico Burress New York Giants).

One player scored the same amount of touchdowns (A.J. Green Cincinnati Bengals), and three players had fewer touchdowns, but still had double-digit touchdowns (Antonio Brown Pittsburgh Steelers, Eric Decker Denver Broncos, and Roddy White Atlanta Falcons).

Overall the table shows that once a wide receiver scores double-digit touchdowns for the first time in their career there is a regression of about 5.8 touchdowns or 50 percent of touchdown totals the followings season.

Only 15 percent of players were able to repeat the feat of double-digit touchdowns, making it very unlikely that Adams will be able to achieve that feat in 2017.

With regression in touchdowns from Nelson and Adams, fantasy owners should expect Cobb to get back into the end zone more because somebody will have to be on the receiving of those 35-40 Rodgers touchdowns.

With his teammates’ touchdowns going down, Cobb’s touchdowns will have to increase.

Aside from touchdowns, Cobb also benefits greatly from having Rodgers as his quarterback.

Rodgers is one of the few quarterbacks that can keep three wide receivers relevant in fantasy.

In the past, Rodgers twice has helped produce three wide receivers that have all ended up within the top 50.

In 2011, with Nelson, Greg Jennings, and James Jones and then again in, 2012 with Nelson, Cobb, and Jones.

It is also worth noting that Cobb easily would have cracked the top 50 last year if he had not gotten hurt and was forced into missing three games.

It really is hard to not like a guy when Rodgers is throwing him the ball.

It is even harder to not like a guy when said guy catching passes from Rodgers is going late in fantasy drafts.

Cobb’s average draft position has him going anywhere between the eighth and tenth round in twelve team leagues.

Drafting him this late, slots him as a wide receiver three, four or FLEX depending on if the draft strategy involves taking a quarterback or tight end later. If the latter is true, Cobb can definitely be drafted as a wide receiver four on a roster, which is a great value.

His floor is exactly that as a wide receiver three or four, but it comes with the tremendous upside of playing alongside Rodgers that not many other receivers have.

In conclusion, Cobb is a guy that fantasy owners cannot overlook. With a nice floor, high upside, and favorable draft position Cobb is a player that will satisfy fantasy owners like corn on the cob on a hot summer day.

Minus the annoying part, where the corn gets stuck in one’s teeth of course!

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