Predicting the 49ers win total in 2016
Though the season is still far enough in the future that things could change between now and then, prognosticators are predicting that the San Francisco 49ers will finish near or at the bottom of the NFL in terms of games won in 2016. Las Vegas oddsmakers have set the 49ers over/under for total wins at 5.5 wins at best and the Football Outsiders have predicted that the 49ers will finish with the worst record in the NFC at 4-12 in 2016. We have no idea whether these estimates will come to fruition but we can take our own best guess by looking at the schedule.
The 49ers are tied with the Atlanta Falcons for the toughest strength of schedule in 2016, as pointed out by Chris Biederman of ninerswire.com, facing teams that combined for the toughest opponents’ winning percentage at .555, presenting a significant challenge to surpassing the prognosticators predictions. But let’s take a look at each individual game of the 49ers 2016 season and assess for ourselves.
AROUND COVER32
Fantasy Football: Ranking the top ten wide receivers
Kick Returns: Devin Hester hates new touchback rule
PEDs: League to talk with three stars in June
2016 Preview: Predictions for the NFC East division
Latest 49ers News: Key Position Battles Will Determine 49ers Fate in 2016
Latest 49ers News: From the Gridiron with the 49ers to Tech Start-Up
Sep 12 vs Rams: Last season, the 49ers beat the Rams in an overtime game in the last game of the season at Levi’s stadium in January by the score of 19-16, and the Rams beat the 49ers soundly in St. Louis by the score of 27-6 in early November. Rams ranked 23rd in total defense and 32nd in total offense in 2015. Pro Football focus gives the Rams a ‘B-‘ offseason grade with their splashiest acquisition being a rookie quarterback who is not likely to shine in his first game on Monday Night Football. The past few years have seen these games play out very closely and the home field advantage and extra enthusiasm surrounding Chip Kelly’s first game coaching the 49ers might give them an edge. Prediction: 49ers win.
Sep 18 @ Panthers: Even though the 49ers beat the Panthers the last time they played in the NFC playoffs following the 2013 season, the teams went in very different directions since then, with the Panthers reaching the Super Bowl last year and the 49ers circling the drain. The 49ers were a terrible road team last year, winning only a single game on the road the entire 2015 season, and I don’t see that changing much this year and certainly not against the defending NFC champs. Prediction: 49ers lose.
Sep 25 @ Seahawks: When was the last time the 49ers won in Seattle? On December 24th, 2011 the 49ers eeked out a 19-17 victory at CenturyLink Field, and that is the 49ers only win in Seattle in their last 8 games there. Prediction: 49ers lose.
Oct 2 vs Cowboys: The 49ers surprised many the last time they played the Cowboys in the opening game of the 2014 season by earning a fairly easy 28-17 win in Arlington, Texas. The teams went in opposite directions over the course of that season with the Cowboys making the playoffs that year. Much of the reason that the Cowboys had an off-season last year was due to the injury to Tony Romo and departure of DeMarco Murray. If Tony Romo is healthy and plays in this game and Ezekiel Elliott plays up to his ability behind that offensive line, the Cowboys have too much talent for the 49ers to overcome at this stage in their rebuilding process. Prediction: 49ers lose.
Oct 6 vs Cardinals: The 49ers were able to keep it close against the Cardinals when they played them at Levi’s in the 2015 season, losing 19-13 in a defensive battle. But this is another situation where the teams are headed in opposite directions, with the Cardinals ascending while the 49ers made their descent. Arizona led the league in total offense in 2015 and their additions to defense this offseason, including first round pick DT Robert Nkemdiche and free agent DE Chandler Jones and S Tyvon Branch should help their defense improve. The Cardinals are in contention to win the NFC West again and that does not bode well for the 49ers. Prediction: 49ers lose.
Oct 16 @ Bills: Pro Football Focus offseason assessment of the Buffalo Bills suggests that they are a possible contender for the playoffs, which puts them in a different class than the 49ers by that possibility alone. The Bills QB, RB and WR1 have shown more talent over the past season than their counterparts on the 49ers. When you factor in that Rex Ryan in his 2nd year will likely be able to impress more of his defensive toughness to a team that added DE Shaq Lawson and LB Reggie Raglan in the draft, taken together with one of the better home field advantages in the NFL that happens to be in the eastern time zone, it’s hard to see the 49ers leaving Buffalo with a victory. Prediction: 49ers lose
Oct 23 vs Buccaneers: Tampa Bay ranked 5th in total offense in 2015, and their offense figures to improve with Jameis Winston entering his second year under the tutelage of Dirk Koetter, a coach that Jameis liked so much it may have been a factor in Lovie’s relatively early dismissal. And while the Buccaneers offense may be significantly better than the 49ers, the Bucs defense was no slouch in ranking 10th in total yards allowed in 2015. Though Lovie Smith’s departure may adversely affect the defense, the Buccaneers made a point of building their defense this off season by signing DE Robert Ayers and drafting CB Vernon Hargreaves and DE Noah Spence. And let’s not forget that the 2015 Bucs went into Philadelphia to face Chip Kelly’s Eagles and manhandled them to the tune of a 45-17 drubbing, suggesting that they were not fazed by Chip Kelly’s offense. Though this will be a different season and the 49ers will be playing at home, the Bucs seem to have substantially more talent on their roster and that should make the difference. Prediction: 49ers lose.
Nov 6 vs Saints: Saints are a team that has been in decline for the past two seasons and their lack of cap space in the offseason hampered their ability to improve a team that ranked 31st in total defense (worse than the 49ers). Drew Brees will always be a threat to put up big numbers but he is entering the twilight of his career as well. This is likely to be a close game, but we will give the benefit of the doubt to the 49ers due to home field advantage. Prediction: 49ers win.
Nov 13 @ Cardinals: Remember what happened the last time the 49ers went to Arizona? It may not be a 47-7 demolition, but there is very little chance the 49ers win this game for the reasons mentioned above: Prediction: 49ers lose.
Nov 20 vs Patriots: It’s Tom Brady coming home to play and he’s bringing his coach Bill Belichick and his team the Patriots. Prediction: 49ers lose.
Nov 27 @ Dolphins: The Dolphins are coming off a 6-10 season and new GM Chris Grier walked into a tight cap situation which led to significant turnover of their roster, all of which was hard to replace even with a fairly good draft that netted them Laremy Tunsil with the 13th pick. Dolphins’ total offense and defense were both slightly better than the 49ers in 2015, but the Dolphins defense could be worse than last year. This could be another close game but the improved offensive line and the arrival of offensive-minded Adam Gase as head coach should be an upgrade that might help Ryan Tannehill find a way to win this one at home. Prediction: 49ers lose.
Dec 4 @ Bears: Since taking over as GM of the Bears last season, Ryan Pace has shown that he is not like Trent Baalke when it comes to making moves. The Monsters of the Midway have long been known for tough defense and linebackers and they are trying to continue this legacy by adding LBs Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman in free agency and drafting LB Leonard Floyd. The Bears defense was significantly better than the 49ers last season, ranking 14th in the NFL, and their offense looks to improve with 1st round pick from 2015, WR Kevin White, being able to finally take the field and join WR Alshon Jeffery to form a potentially formidable receiving duo. One the highlights of the 49ers 2015 season was an overtime victory at Soldier Field, but the chances of that happening again do not look good. Prediction: 49ers lose.
Dec 11 vs Jets: The Jets had a promising 2015 campaign under first year head coach Todd Bowles, finishing 10-6 and with the 4th ranked defense and 10th ranked offense in the NFL. The Jets defense is significantly better than the 49ers on paper and the Jets have superior receivers but their quarterback situation makes this game harder to predict. If Ryan Fitzpatrick re-signs with the Jets, they have a much better chance of winning this game, but since Geno Smith currently sits atop the Jets QB depth chart, taken together with the fact that Chip Kelly was able to find a way to win against the Jets in 2015, we will give a very generous nod to the 49ers for now. Prediction: 49ers win.
Dec 18 @ Falcons: Blaine Gabbert and the 49ers were able to barely beat the Falcons at home by a 17-16 score in the 2015 season. Atlanta ranked 7th in total offense and 16th in total defense in 2015 and bolstering their offensive line to a potential top 5 unit and improving their linebacker corps has Pro Football Focus suggesting that they may return to their first-half of 2015 form and maybe even contend for a wild card spot. Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and Devonta Freeman will find a way to make the Georgia Dome a bit too inhospitable for the 49ers. Prediction: 49ers lose.
Dec 24 @ Rams: The last two years has seen the 49ers and Rams split each of the season series. Based on that trend, the fact that we have the 49ers winning the first game of the 2016 season against the Rams and the likelihood that Jared Goff will have had more time to develop his game near the end of the year, we will concede a home win to the Rams in this spot. Prediction: 49ers lose.
Jan 1 vs Seahawks: Bottom line, until the 49ers can show that they can beat the Seahawks at Levi’s Stadium, or anywhere for that matter, it’s really hard to feel confident that the 49ers can win this game. I expect this one to be closer than the last two 20-3 and 19-3 victories for Seattle at Levi’s, but when another team enjoys Thanksgiving dinner on the 50 yard line of your home stadium and you still can’t beat them in your home stadium, you don’t get the benefit of the doubt. Prediction: 49ers lose.
Based on our game-by-game assessment, the 49ers are estimated to win approximately 3 games next season, which comes close the 4-12 prediction made by the Football Outsiders. The Football Outsiders use statistical analysis to estimate win totals and predicted that the 49ers would go 7-9 in 2015 (actual 5-11) and predicted that the 49ers would go 9-7 in 2014 (actual 8-8), suggesting that they overestimated the 49ers win totals for the past two years, make 3-13 for the 2016 49ers a very real possibility.
While many 49ers fans are hoping for the same turnaround that Chip Kelly had when he went to the Eagles or when Jim Harbaugh first took over the 49ers, they should remember that those teams had talent on their roster, and no single NFL roster has seen as significant a depletion of talent than the 49ers over the past two season. Yes, they had a decent draft but didn’t make any free agent moves to significantly upgrade skilled positions, suggesting that a miracle turnaround is unlikely in the league’s best and most physical division. Sure, the NFL can always surprise and I hope that Chip Kelly and the 49ers exceed expectations, but there’s a reason Vegas gives them the worst odds to win the Super Bowl in 2016, and they don’t mess around when it comes to money.
The post Predicting the 49ers win total in 2016 appeared first on Cover32.
