Olympics 2016: Day-by-day swimming predictions

Pat Forde

Who will be on the podium in every event at the Summer Olympics swimming competition? Yahoo Sports breaks it down, day by day, medal by medal:

SATURDAY, Aug. 6

Finals:

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Men 400 individual medley
Gold: Kosuke Hagino, Japan
Silver: Daiya Seto, Japan
Bronze: Chase Kalisz, USA

Spoiler: Jay Litherland, USA

Men 400 freestyle
Gold: Mack Horton, Australia
Silver: Sun Yang, China
Bronze: Connor Jaeger, USA

Spoiler: Park Tae Hwan, S. Korea

Women 400 IM
Gold: Maya DiRado, USA
Silver: Katinka Hosszu, Hungary
Bronze: Elizabeth Beisel, USA

Spoiler: Emily Overholt, Canada

Women 400 free relay
Gold: Australia
Silver: USA
Bronze: Netherlands

Spoiler: Canada

Race of the day: Women’s 400-meter individual medley. Hosszu, nicknamed the “Iron Lady,” has dominated this event from 2013 onward. She won gold at the World Championships in 2013 and ’15, and has the fastest time in the world this year as well. But ’15 Worlds silver medalist DiRado is surging, coming off a dominant Olympic Trials meet that could set her up for a dramatic showdown with Hosszu. Beisel swam a strong time in Atlanta in May but wasn’t in top form in Omaha last month. Then again, the three-time Olympian didn’t have to be to make the team and could get onto the podium in Rio.

SUNDAY, Aug. 7

Finals:

Women 100 fly
Gold: Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden
Silver: Kelsi Worrell, USA
Bronze: Dana Vollmer, USA

Spoiler: Penny Oleksiak, Canada

Men 100 breastroke
Gold: Adam Peaty, Great Britan
Silver: Kevin Cordes, USA
Bronze: Cameron Van Der Burgh, South Africa

Spoiler: Joao Gomes, Brazil

Women 400 free
Gold: Katie Ledecky, USA
Silver: Leah Smith, USA
Bronze: Brittany MacLean, Canada

Spoiler: Boglarka Kapas, Hungary

Men 400 free relay
Gold: Australia
Silver: France
Bronze: USA

Spoiler: Russia

Race of the day: Women’s 400 free. American freestyle monster Katie Ledecky gets her Olympics started in an event where she has been untouchable since 2013. The only question here is whether the 19-year-old breaks her own world record of 3:58.56. Closest competition looks like fellow American Leah Smith, who had a sensational Olympic Trials to distance herself a bit from the pack chasing Ledecky.

Katie Ledecky (R) is a heavy favorite to win gold in the women’s 400 freestyle. (Getty)
Katie Ledecky (R) is a heavy favorite to win gold in the women’s 400 freestyle. (Getty)

MONDAY, Aug. 8

Finals:

Men 200 free
Gold: Sun Yang, China
Silver: Conor Dwyer, USA
Bronze: James Guy, Great Britan

Spoiler: Paul Biedermann, Germany

Women 100 backstroke
Gold: Emily Seebohm, Australia
Silver: Katinka Hosszu, Hungary
Bronze: Mie Nelson, Denmark

Spoiler: Olivia Smoliga, USA

Men 100 back
Gold: Ryan Murphy, USA
Silver: Mitch Larkin, Australia
Bronze: David Plummer, USA

Spoiler: Ryosuke Irie, Japan

Women 100 breast
Gold: Ruta Meilutyte, Lithuania
Silver: Lilly King, USA
Bronze: Alia Atkinson, Jamaica

Spoiler: Viktoria Zeynep Gunes, Turkey

Race of the day: Men’s 100 back. American Aaron Peirsol’s world record of 51.94 seconds has stood since 2009, but expect it to fall here in what looks like a sizzling three-man showdown between Australian Mitch Larking and Americans Ryan Murphy and David Plummer. Larkin’s personal best time is 52.11, Plummer’s is 52.12 and Murphy’s is 52.18. If they’re all on top of their game, it could come down to a three-way lunge for the wall.

TUESDAY, Aug. 9

Finals:

Women 200 free
Gold: Katie Ledecky, USA
Silver: Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden
Bronze: Federica Pellegrini, Italy

Spoiler: Emma McKeon, Australia

Men 200 fly
Gold: Laszlo Cseh, Hungary
Silver: Daiya Seto, Japan
Bronze: Michael Phelps, USA

Spoiler: Chad le Clos, South Africa

Women 200 IM
Gold: Katinka Hosszu, Hungary
Silver: Maya DiRado, USA
Bronze: Siaobhan-Marie O’Connor, Great Britain

Spoiler: Ye Shiwen, China

Men 800 freestyle relay
Gold: USA
Silver: Australia
Bronze: Japan

Spoiler: Germany

Race of the day: Men’s 200 fly. Michael Phelps’ first individual race in his fifth and final Olympics will be a challenging one. If he can swim the time he did last summer in San Antonio, he could win his 19th lifetime gold medal. But his times this summer haven’t been fast enough to get on the podium. Phelps not only will be trying to beat the guy who shocked him in this event in 2012 (Chad le Clos), but also the guy he’s beaten repeatedly through the years (Laszlo Cseh). Might be time for Cseh to finally get the upper hand on his nemesis.

 

 

Will Michael Phelps get his hands on more gold medals at the 2016 Olympics? (Getty)
Will Michael Phelps get his hands on more gold medals at the 2016 Olympics? (Getty)

WEDNESDAY, Aug. 10

Finals:

Men 200 breast
Gold: Kevin Cordes, USA
Silver: Josh Prenot, USA
Bronze: Marco Koch, Germany

Spoiler: Anton Chupkov, Russia

Women 200 fly
Gold: Madeline Groves, Australia
Silver: Franziska Hentke, Germany
Bronze: Mireia Belmonte, Spain

Spoiler: Cammille Adams, USA

Men 100 free
Gold: Cameron McEvoy, Australia
Silver: Nathan Adrian, USA
Bronze: Jeremy Stravius, France

Spoiler: Kyle Chalmers, Australia

Women 800 freestyle relay
Gold: USA
Silver: Australia
Bronze: China

Spoiler: Netherlands

Race of the day: If she wins what should be a tightly contested 200 free Tuesday, Katie Ledecky could be going for her third gold medal of the Games while swimming the anchor leg on the U.S. 800 free relay. But she may need to bring the Americans back from behind when she goes into the water, because this will be a close relay.

THURSDAY, Aug. 11

Finals:

Women 200 breast
Gold: Rie Kaneto, Japan
Silver: Viktoria Zeynep Gunes, Turkey
Bronze: Rikke Pedersen, Denmark

Spoiler: Hilda Luthersdottir, Iceland

Men 200 back
Gold: Ryan Murphy, USA
Silver: Mitch Larkin, Australia
Bronze: Evgeny Rybv, Russia

Spoiler: Jacob Pebley, USA

Men 200 IM
Gold: Michael Phelps, USA
Silver: Ryan Lochte, USA
Bronze: Kosuke Hagino, Japan

Spoiler: Thiago Pereira, Brazil

Women 100 free
Gold: Cate Campbell, Australia
Silver: Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden
Bronze: Bronte Campbell, Australia

Spoiler: Ranomi Kromowidjojo, Netherlands

Race of the day: Men’s 200 IM. Something of a last stand for America’s dynamic IM duo of Phelps and Lochte against the Japanese star Hagino. Phelps has won gold in this event the last three Olympics, and Lochte has won two silver and one bronze in that time. But they will have to summon some old man strength to hold off Hagino, who has the fastest time in the world this year.

FRIDAY, Aug. 12

Finals:

Women 200 back
Gold: Emily Seebohm, Australia
Silver: Belinda Hocking, Australia
Bronze: Maya DiRado, USA

Spoiler: Katinka Hosszu, Hungary

Men 100 fly
Gold: Michael Phelps, USA
Silver: Laszlo Cseh, Hungary
Bronze: Joseph Schooling, Singapore

Spoiler: Tom Shields, USA

Women 800 free
Gold: Katie Ledecky, USA
Silver: Leah Smith, USA
Bronze: Jessica Ashwood, Australia

Spoiler: Brittany MacLean, Canada

Men 50 free
Gold: Nathan Adrian, USA
Silver: Cameron McEvoy, Australia
Bronze: Florent Manadou, France

Spoiler: Anthony Ervin, USA

Race of the day: How can you choose just one? Phelps in his last individual event. Ledecky possibly going for a fourth gold. But don’t miss the fastest show in H20, the men’s 50 free. This whitewater brawl could be the second individual photo finish between American Nathan Adrian and Aussie Cameron McEvoy.

American Nathan Adrian will have his hands full in the men’s 50 free. (Getty)
American Nathan Adrian will have his hands full in the men’s 50 free. (Getty)

SATURDAY, Aug. 13

Finals:

Women 50 free
Gold: Cate Campbell, Australia
Silver: Ranomi Kromowidjojo, Netherlands
Bronze: Sarah Sjostrom, Sweden

Spoiler: Bronte Campbell, Australia

Men 1500 free
Gold: Gregorio Paltrinieri, Italy
Silver: Mack Horton, Australia
Bronze: Connor Jaeger, USA

Spoiler: Jordan Wilimovsky, USA

Women 400 medley relay
Gold: Australia
Silver: USA
Bronze: China

Spoiler: Canada

Men 400 medley relay
Gold: USA
Silver: Australia
Bronze: Great Britain

Spoiler: China

Race of the day: Rio brings down the curtain on the swimming competition and on Phelps’ career with the final race, the men’s 400 medley relay. Technically, Phelps might not be swimming the butterfly leg in the championship final – but let’s be real, he will be there. This will not be a walkover; the Aussies will make Phelps and the Americans earn one final gold medal.

PREDICTED SWIMMING MEDAL COUNT
USA: 34 total (13 gold, 12 silver, nine bronze)
Australia: 20 total (10 gold, eight silver, two bronze)
Japan: 6 total (two gold, two silver, two bronze)
Hungary: 5 total (two gold, three silver)
Sweden: 4 total (one gold, two silver, one bronze)
China: 4 total (one gold, one silver, two bronze)
Great Britain: 4 total (one gold, three bronze)

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