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With Houston’s Bill O’Brien anointing himself as his own offensive coordinator, the coaching carousel has finally stopped spinning. At least we think. Who knows what side of the bed Jimmy Haslam will wake up on tomorrow. The point is, all 32 staffs are again set after seven teams hired new head coaches.
Unless you’re Haslam, coaching changes are not to be taken lightly. In no sport is the head man more important. Modern NFL coaches have 53 highly-paid egos to soothe, and two sides of the ball to manage … with no two-way players. It’s a game of chess, with rainstorms, torn ACLs and meddlesome owners thrown in for good measure. The right coach can put you halfway to a dynasty. The wrong coach can set you back five years.
Not that good coaches are always rewarded. Of the league’s 32 head coaches, six have had the same job since before Barack Obama was elected president. 14 have been hired within the past 14 months. It’s a “what have you done for me lately” business, and if you don’t have the right quarterback, business is rarely booming. So sometimes being good isn’t enough. You need to be great, and lucky, too. Like Tom Brady in the sixth round lucky. The great ones, of course, make their own luck.
Without further ado, here are the league’s top 32 coaches, with the caveat that existing coaches and new hires are ranked separately. Among the factors considered are:
— Who would I want coaching my team right now? Not five years ago, but now.
— What exactly does the coach do? Does he call plays, or just stand on the sideline and clap?
— Does he put his team in the best position to win? For example, does he hire the right assistants?
— What’s the effect, both tangible and intangible, he has on his team?
— Are his best days behind or ahead of him?
— Tenure, to an extent, does matter. For all his promise, Gus Bradley can’t yet be considered a top-10 coach.
1. Bill Belichick
Career Record: 199-105 (.655)
With The Patriots Since: 2000
You can call Bill Belichick an iconoclast, or you can call him a rogue. Thanks to one infamous incident, you could even call him a cheater. We’ll just call him the greatest coach of the modern era, if not all time. The last remaining coach truly serving as his own general manager, Belichick is also one of the rare head men to set the tone on both sides of the ball. Belichick has total control in a way no other coach does, and successfully executes on that total control in a way no other coach does. The Patriots are 88-24 (.786) since 2007. If you eliminate Tom Brady’s ACL and comeback years, the Pats are 117-27 (.813) since 2003. Even if you don’t eliminate those 11 and 10-win campaigns, they’re 138-38 (.784). The Browns/Ravens fired Belichick after the 1995 season. Since, Belichick has 18 playoff victories. The Browns have 77 total victories since rejoining the NFL in 1999. You can say it’s Brady, or you can say it’s cheating (and be wrong). Whatever it is, it’s winning in relentlessly dominant, historic fashion.
2. Pete Carroll
Career Record: 71-57 (.555)
With The Seahawks Since: 2010
Would Carroll and Jim Harbaugh be flip-flopped had the 49ers won the NFC Championship Game? Probably. Is part of Carroll’s greatness the fact that he’s been one of the few coaches to solve Harbaugh? Absolutely. Everything that makes Carroll elite was on display during the Seahawks’ Super Bowl run. His team is ruthless on the field, but lighthearted off of it. That’s because Carroll has eschewed the Belichick model in favor of letting his players be themselves. In actuality, that’s been his only true innovation. Carroll’s model of football is as ancient as the game itself. Run the ball, play strong defense and make plays on special teams. It’s his model of leadership that gives him an edge over the Greg Schianos of the world. In the age of the 24-hour news cycle, Carroll doesn’t care about what his players tweet or say to Skip Bayless. He just wants them to be willing to run through a brick wall for the team. Schiano would rather put up a brick wall between his team and the world. Carroll wins hearts and minds, then lets the rest take care of itself.
3. Jim Harbaugh
Career Record: 36-11-1 (.766)
With The 49ers Since: 2011
When it comes to pure football, Harbaugh is second only to Belichick. For all the deserved praise his coordinators — OC Greg Roman and DC Vic Fangio — have received since he burst onto the scene in 2011, has there ever been any doubt it’s Harbaugh who sets the A-Z tone for his team? He’s a relentless innovator on offense, and the meat-and-potatoes philosophy he’s allowed Fangio to install on defense would make Mike Ditka proud. Setting the tone on both sides of the ball is not where the Belichick comparison ends. The league hasn’t seen a bigger risk taker since Belichick first donned his hoodie. Whilst the hot-take crowd balked at Harbaugh benching “proven winner” Alex Smith mid-season in 2012, Harbs didn’t blink as Colin Kaepernick led the 49ers to within a goal-line stand of their sixth Super Bowl title. That is not to ignore the fact that trusting Smith in the first place was quite a leap of faith for a rookie coach. Harbaugh could afford to tone it down on the sideline, but everything else is in place for him to be “Super Bowl-winning coach” Jim Harbaugh in the not-too-distant future.
4. Sean Payton
Career Record: 73-39 (.652)
With The Saints Since: 2006
The Payton model has taken some lumps in recent years. There’s the whole “getting suspended for an entire year” thing, and the fact that his Fourth-of-July offense has too often resembled “just” an expensive box of mortar shells on the road. Neither changes the fact that Payton approaches football in a fundamentally-different way than the majority of his peers, and has had far-more success as a result. For many first-time coaches, the first thing they ask themselves is, “how can I fit this square peg into this round hole?” For Payton it was, “how can I maximize our home-field advantage and ability to score points?” Payton may have built the home dominance before the road competence, but that didn’t stop him from being at the helm for New Orleans’ first Super Bowl title in 2009. And for all the hand-wringing over the Saints' “struggles” away from the Superdome, Payton has as many road playoff victories as Bill Belichick since 2006. It’s hard for any team to win away from home, not just Payton’s. An idiosyncratic leader in a league full of followers, Payton is going to oversee an above-average team for as long as he remains in New Orleans.
5. John Harbaugh
Career Record: 62-34 (.646)
With The Ravens Since: 2008
Harbaugh’s effect can be hard to pin-point. A former special-teams coordinator and DBs coach, he’s never overseen an offense or defense. His results have been crystal clear, however. Harbaugh has never had a losing season, and not only guided the Ravens to the playoffs in each of his first five years on the job, but a playoff victory. That’s not easy to do in the salary-cap era, especially when your quarterback is Joe Flacco. Harbaugh has cycled through coordinators, losing three to head-coaching vacancies and one to ineffectiveness (Cam Cameron). Thanks to Harbaugh’s leadership and preparation, it hasn’t been an issue for one of the league’s model franchises. It is true this list finds Harbaugh coming off a “low” moment: His first .500 season. But considering the circumstances — the Ravens were moving on from the Ray Lewis/Ed Reed era, adjusting to life without Anquan Boldin and missing Dennis Pitta — even that was an accomplishment in the rugged AFC North. Harbaugh may not call plays, but few are better at calling the shots.
6. Chip Kelly
Career Record: 10-6 (.625)
With The Eagles Since: 2013
Kelly has spent exactly one of his 50 years on this earth roaming an NFL sideline. As recently as 2006, he was the New Hampshire Wildcats’ offensive coordinator. He earned his first head-coaching job at the age of 46. So how could he possibly be so high on this list? Because he has something nearly all his peers lack: Clarity of vision. From what kind of offense he runs to what kind of music he plays at practice, Kelly knows exactly what he wants to do as a football coach. Others might think they know, but others spend nearly as much time scapegoating assistants as they do winning football games. And unlike say, Greg Schiano, Kelly is not only a man with a plan, but a man who treats his players like men. He’s not a dictator, but a leader. Maybe Kelly will wind up the flash in the pan many are still certain he is. But if he does, it will be on his terms, doing things no one else has done before. He's literally changing the way the game is played. How many coaches, in any era, can say that? In a copycat league, Kelly is himself. It’s a philosophy more should abide by.
7. Andy Reid
Career Record: 141-98-1 (.590)
With The Chiefs Since: 2013
Andy Reid has been an NFL coach for 15 seasons. He’s won at least 10 games in nine of them. He’s missed the playoffs only five times, and is coming off arguably the finest year of his career. So why isn’t he higher? Because while we know Reid’s strengths, we also know the weaknesses that have prevented him from calling himself “Super Bowl winning coach Andy Reid.” Reid’s Achilles’ heel — clock and timeout management — was just as evident in last month’s Wild Card loss as it was in Super Bowl XXXIX. In terms of weaknesses, that’s not as bad as, say, “can’t win.” But the fact that Reid even has such a well-known blind spot puts him a tier below the league’s truly-elite coaches. For the vast majority of his 15 years as a head coach, Reid has been slow and steady. Too often, however, he’s been too slow, too unsteady at the game’s most pivotal moments. We know Reid’s ceiling. We also know that after 15 years, he’s unlikely to ever break through it.
8. Bruce Arians
Career Record: 10-6 (.625)
With The Cardinals Since: 2013
Two Januarys ago, Arians was forced out as the Steelers’ offensive coordinator. A 59-year-old man, it should have ended any realistic shot he had at becoming an NFL head coach. Two years later, Arians has earned a Head Coach of the Year award, and been at the controls for two remarkable turnarounds. Like Kelly, Arians’ rank is based on much as future potential as past accomplishment. Also like Kelly, Arians’ arrow is pointed skyward because he has the sense of mission so many other coaches lack. Arians’ philosophy isn’t a bunch of boilerplate clichés. He puts the pedal to the metal, going deep again and again on offense, and dialing up the heat again and again on defense. Not that Arians is unwilling to adjust. Working with the league’s worst offensive line last season, Arians not only dialed up an uncharacteristic amount of three-step drops for lead-footed QB Carson Palmer, he stuck with a rushing attack that wasn’t always easy to stick with. It’s just one of the reasons Arians has made the transition from coordinator to coach seem so … seamless. He has a vision that goes beyond empty sound bites — something a shocking amount of coaches lack — but isn’t afraid to go outside his comfort zone. He has a system, but if the players don’t fit it, he’ll change his ways, not theirs. That’s something a lot of NFL coaches could learn from.
9. Tom Coughlin
Career Record: 158-130 (.549)
With The Giants Since: 2004
Coughlin is an old-school perfectionist. That’s what makes his team’s uneven play — not just year to year, but often week to week — so hard to figure sometimes. Coughlin has led the Giants to the promised land twice in seven years. He’s also been outscored 69-7 over the course of two games, as he was in Weeks 3 and 4 last season. Twice, Coughlin has won 11 or more games as the Giants coach. Those two years amounted to zero playoff wins. Coughlin’s two Super Bowl-winning clubs? A combined 19-13. That’s Coughlin in a nutshell. Maybe Coughlin is too intense, too exacting. You can only grind on your players for so long before you grind them into dust. Coughlin’s gift is that he can get his players to come back even after he crosses the rubicon. At this point, we’re never going to get a perfect season from the league’s oldest coach. But a moment of Super Bowl winning perfection? Now that’s much more likely.
10. Mike McCarthy
Career Record: 82-45-1 (.646)
With The Packers Since: 2006
McCarthy has only known success as a head coach. He’s also only known Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers as his quarterbacks. McCarthy can be unimaginative, and slow to adjust. His defenses have consistently underperformed. The San Francisco 49ers can attest to all three points. That’s why the timing couldn’t have been better than 2013 for McCarthy to remind people that he’s not just a push-button coach. McCarthy did some of the best work of his career in the seven games Rodgers missed with a broken collarbone, managing and manipulating Matt Flynn just enough that the Pack could eke out two wins and a tie. It was a reminder of the success Flynn had during Rodgers’ previous absences — and a reminder that Flynn has been utterly futile as an NFL quarterback everywhere else he’s been. McCarthy is never going to be a fearless leader, blazing new trails and trends. But he’s been the right coach at the right time for the Packers, and that’s harder to find than you think.
11. Rex Ryan
Career Record: 42-38 (.525)
With The Jets Since: 2009
There have been a lot of problems during Ryan’s time as head coach. His coaching has rarely been one of them. Surviving one of the worst GMs in football (Mike Tannenbaum), and a ridiculous lack of talent and vision on offense, Ryan has nevertheless suffered just one losing season in five years. Ryan is not blameless in Gang Green’s continued struggles on offense. It was he who hired Tony Sparano, and remained too loyal to Mark Sanchez. But it’s Ryan’s mastery on defense that has kept the Jets from plunging to the depths Tannenbaum had them destined for before he was replaced by John Idzik. Ryan lost Darrelle Revis to trade and Antonio Cromartie to ineffectiveness in 2013. He responded by coaching up Sheldon Richardson to Defensive Rookie of the Year heights, and overseeing the league’s No. 3 run defense. If Ryan wasn’t so famous for running his mouth, he’d be known for leading one of the league’s most consistent bands of overachievers. If Idzik can find Ryan a quarterback, Ryan just might find the Jets their first world championship since 1968.
12. Marvin Lewis
Career Record: 90-85-1 (.514)
With The Bengals Since: 2003
At this point, Lewis is more Mack Brown-style CEO than head football coach. Both his offense and defense were autonomous units under now departed coordinators Jay Gruden and Mike Zimmer, respectively. Lewis paints in broad strokes for an owner in Mike Brown who obviously has complete faith in his coach of 11 years. Many would point to Lewis’ 0-5 record in the playoffs and say Brown’s faith is misplaced, but even consistency of Lewis’ somewhat mediocre nature is hard to find in the NFL. That’s especially true for a franchise that’s not exactly known for opening its wallet. You could say Lewis should have won more in recent years and be right. You could also say the fact that he’s gone from nine to 10 to 11 wins with a stagnant Andy Dalton under center is more than his teams should have accomplished. At this point, Lewis is just a steady hand, and nothing more. Lest you think that’s an insult, ask the Browns or Raiders how easy it is to find a steady hand.
13. Marc Trestman
Career Record: 8-8 (.500)
With The Bears Since: 2013
There’s no reason to sugarcoat it: Trestman has major room for improvement. The Bears’ once-proud defense completed its precipitous fall under its first-year head coach, while Trestman’s team couldn’t cash in on the opportunity of a lifetime to win a wounded NFC North. It also led the NFC in points, averaging 27.8 per game in a year in which Josh McCown made five starts. Trestman created a town big enough for the both of Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, and coaxed a career year out of 28-year-old back Matt Forte. Trestman knows offense, and is going to have an elite one for as long as the Bears will have him. Provided he learned the right lessons elsewhere as a rookie coach, he should prove to be a home-run hire for an organization with only three playoff wins in the 21st century.
14. Jeff Fisher
Career Record: 156-137-1 (.532)
With The Rams Since: 2012
There are two things preventing Fisher from falling into the same “steady hand” category as Lewis. 1. His hand isn’t always steady. Fisher’s Titans teams were known more for their late hits than discipline. The personal fouls have followed Fisher’s mustache to St. Louis. 2. Fisher’s ceiling is higher. Fisher has won at least 11 games five times since 1999. You could say Fisher has had better quarterbacks than Lewis, but Kerry Collins was under center for Fisher’s 13-win squad in 2008. The problem is, Fisher hasn’t won a playoff game since 2003, while his young Rams team made fewer strides than expected in 2013. That can partly be attributed to playing in the best division in football. It can also be blamed on Fisher’s allegiance to vanilla OC Brian Schottenheimer, and the fact that the duo didn’t install a realistic offense until Sam Bradford tore his ACL in Week 7. Fisher has been there before, but it’s been over a decade. By the time he gets back, he might not remember how to act like it.
15. Mike McCoy
Career Record: 9-7 (.563)
With The Chargers Since: 2013
Maybe McCoy’s 2013 was simply lightning in a bottle. A one-off confluence of events no one man could have possibly orchestrated. If so, that was some lightning. In no particular order McCoy: Fixed Philip Rivers (with the help of Ken Whisenhunt), fixed Ryan Mathews, overcame the loss of his No. 1 and 2 receivers, guided Keenan Allen to one of the best seasons by a rookie receiver in recent memory and watched a patchwork defense play above its head. McCoy’s Chargers were the only team to beat the Broncos in Denver, or the Bengals in Cincinnati. An elite game planner, McCoy won’t be expecting lightning to strike twice in 2014: He’ll be orchestrating it.
16. Mike Tomlin
Career Record: 71-41 (.634)
With The Steelers Since: 2007
As head coach of the Steelers, Tomlin has three annual goals: Win the Super Bowl, win the AFC North and beat the Ravens. It’s with the Ravens’ John Harbaugh that Tomlin shares the most similarities as a coach. Like Harbaugh, Tomlin leads neither his defense nor his offense. He leads men. He was extremely successful at it his first four years on the job, guiding the Steelers to two Super Bowl appearances and one title. Management has made his job much tougher since. Tomlin was infamously forced to part ways with successful OC Bruce Arians, while the state of his roster has steadily aged and deteriorated thanks to dubious cap management from GM Kevin Colbert. Tomlin has done all that’s been asked of him and more, but with little say over his personnel and offensive and defensive philosophies, it’s grown harder to pin-point what exactly he’s allowed to do. That would make it hard for any coach to exert his influence. It also makes it easier for the Steelers to find their scapegoat if things continue to trend downward in 2014.
17. Ron Rivera
Career Record: 25-23 (.521)
With The Panthers Since: 2011
Rivera would be on the street and off this list had he not embraced something so few coaches do: Reinvention. Sitting at 1-3 after the Panthers’ 22-6 loss to the Cardinals in Week 5, Rivera decided he wasn’t going to take it anymore. Fighting the hot seat fire with fire, Savings Bond Ron morphed into Riverboat Ron, deciding there were punts you could pass up. Winning the game took precedence over winning the field-position game. Buoyed by Rivera’s gut — and defense — the Panthers ended the year on an 11-1 tear, downing the 49ers, Patriots and Saints in the process. Rivera’s hot finish can’t be questioned. What can be questioned is if “Riverboat Ron” is here to stay. If Rivera’s truly found religion, winning will remain his church. If not, he’ll go back to being just another John Fox without a Peyton Manning.
18. Gus Bradley
Career Record: 4-12 (.250)
With The Jaguars Since: 2013
Working with the league’s most talent-barren roster — the Jaguars literally used their 2012 third-round pick on a punter — things went about as poorly as you’d expect for Bradley in his first eight games on the job. The Jags went 0-8, offering little resistance as they got out-scored 264-96. Somehow, some way, Bradley flipped the switch after Jacksonville’s bye week, overseeing a 4-4 finish and seven close games for a team that had no business being in close games. His team took on his personality — hard-nosed and feisty — shoring up on defense while running the ball more effectively on offense. The Jags finished with as many road wins, three, as the Saints, Bengals and Bears. Real results could be another 2-3 years away, but Bradley’s process appears to be right.
19. Mike Smith
Career Record: 96-60 (.625)
With The Falcons Since: 2008
On the surface, there’s nothing more than nits to be picked with Smith’s Falcons résumé. A team that had never had back-to-back winning seasons before his arrival has reached the playoffs in four of six years. The Falcons have emerged as a competent, stable organization befitting their competent, stable owner Arthur Blank. But you don’t have to dig deep to find Smith’s flaws. The biggest? His philosophy is as bland as his name. Smith only stands out when he’s making the wrong decision, which is often. For Smith, the field-position battle is a hundred-years war that’s won one punt at a time. Timeouts? He hasn’t met one that can’t be squandered. The only time Smith rocks the boat is when he’s trying not to. You could argue that Smith’s near-paralytic caution is an asset. But slow and steady rarely wins the NFL race. Smith, who owns a 1-4 career playoff record, can attest to that. Even Smith’s lone postseason victory was marred by his lack of imagination. The Falcons went into halftime of last year’s Divisional Round game up 20-0 on the Seahawks. They only emerged victorious 30-28 after a last-second field goal propelled them to the NFC Championship Game, where this time they coughed up a 24-14 halftime lead. In both games, Smith’s tactical mistakes were numerous and amateur. Not that it surprised anyone who has watched him coach since 2008. Smith keeps the trains running on time. That’s great … until the others start flying by. For six years, Smith has had a locomotive at his disposal. Too often, he’s treated it like a Ford Focus.
20. John Fox
Career Record: 107-85 (.557)
With The Broncos Since: 2011
Fox is nothing if not a kindred spirit to Mike Smith. Fox has been with the Broncos for three seasons, in which time he’s had two defining moments. The first was a kneel down. The second, a punt. Sometimes coaches make decisions that increase their team’s win probability by 5-6 percent. Other times they literally punt from their opponents’ 39-yard line down 29-0 in the third quarter of the freaking Super Bowl. Like Smith, Fox is never going to be accused of not having his files in order. Like Smith, Fox coaches not to lose, even when he has the most-prolific offense of all time. You play to win the game. Unless you’re Fox, in which case, you’d rather sleep at night.
21. Chuck Pagano
Career Record: 22-10 (.688)
With The Colts Since: 2012
This ranking may seem harsh — or stupid — but ask yourself: Have the Colts succeeded because of Pagano, or in spite of him? Pagano’s work on defense has been fine, but that’s to be expected of a former defensive coordinator. It’s the negative impact he’s had on offense that’s thus far defined his tenure. With OC Pep Hamilton doing his bidding, Pagano has insisted on a run-heavy scheme that highlights the Colts’ weaknesses and obscures their strengths. Andrew Luck attempted fewer passes than Ryan Tannehill and Andy Dalton last season. Meanwhile, Trent Richardson was allowed to slam into a brick wall 157 times. Running the ball and stopping the run is a formula that still works — just ask Seattle and San Francisco — but Indy did neither in 2013. That didn’t stop Pagano from sticking with his plan until the very end, or at least until Indy fell behind 38-10 in the Wild Card round to the Chiefs. Only then was Luck was fully unleashed, and the full brunt of Indy’s offensive firepower felt. Pagano has the best passing prospect since Peyton Manning at his disposal. Until/if he realizes that, he won’t be maximizing his team’s chance to win. That’s a cardinal sin for any head coach.
22. Doug Marrone
Career Record: 6-10 (.375)
With The Bills Since: 2013
Marrone flashed promise as a rookie coach — the Bills were as feisty as they’d been in years — but may have already sealed his fate by hitching his wagon to the wrong quarterback. E.J. Manuel was fragile and inaccurate as a first-year starter, injuring his knee nearly as often as he threw touchdowns. With the Bills’ defense in fine shape even after the departure of DC Mike Pettine, Marrone’s offseason boils down to one task: Fix Manuel. If Manuel makes strides as a sophomore, the long-suffering Bills might finally have something cooking in the shadow of Lake Erie. If not, Marrone will be on the fast track to a Big 10 or ACC job.
23. Dennis Allen
Career Record: 8-24 (.250)
With The Raiders Since: 2012
Allen isn’t the problem in Oakland, but he isn’t necessarily the answer. Allen’s squad overachieved early in 2013, but crumbled in ugly fashion down the stretch. The blame mostly lies with GM Reggie McKenzie’s bizarre, inept roster, but Allen didn’t do himself any favors by refusing to evaluate Terrelle Pryor. Instead he rolled with undrafted rookie Matt McGloin, who at times resembled a fan who had won a contest. Allen has done a lot of things right in his two years on the job, but if his roster is as bad in 2014 as it was in 2013, the “right” decisions may be harder and harder to identify. It could still happen for Allen as an NFL coach, but it might not be in Oakland.
24. Jason Garrett
Career Record: 29-27 (.518)
With The Cowboys Since: 2010
Jason Garrett is perhaps the NFL’s most affable gent. Relentlessly positive, he never lets the world — or Jerry Jones — get him down. The problem? Aside from that, it’s entirely unclear what he does. He doesn’t call his own plays. He doesn’t get to choose his own assistants. He definitely doesn’t lead the Cowboys to the playoffs. He does get to call timeouts and manage the clock, which he frequently does poorly. Of course, it’s possible he doesn’t even do that. Maybe ‘ol Jer has a set of levers and buttons he controls from the owner’s box. The point is, if you asked Garrett “what would you say … you do here?”, he wouldn’t have a good answer. Which means he isn’t the answer for the Cowboys. Which means Cowboys fans will be forced to endure another year of a failed marriage in 2014. Which means that for all his affability, all Garrett is really providing is pain and suffering.
25. Joe Philbin
Career Record: 15-17 (.469)
With The Dolphins Since: 2012
You might think that, like Garrett, it’s not clear what Philbin does. You’d be wrong. It is clear. Nothing. Philbin does nothing. Philbin is a former offensive coordinator who didn’t call plays even when he was an offensive coordinator. He doesn’t know how to hire assistants. He doesn’t know who to feature on offense. He doesn’t know how to handle a PR crisis. He does know how to project the personality of a cantaloupe that’s learned how to talk. Maybe Philbin’s value added to the Dolphins is immense behind the scenes. His starring role on Hard Knocks wouldn’t suggest that, but work with me. But even if that were true, could it possibly be worth the ineptitude he’s shown on the sideline? Hiring Mike Sherman? Featuring Daniel Thomas? Having no clue how to get to the ball to his No. 1 receiver or keep his quarterback upright? With a playoff berth on the line, Philbin’s team combined for seven points in Weeks 16 and 17. It generated 24 first downs. That would get you fired five times in Cleveland. In Miami, it wins you a power struggle with the general manager. Philbin’s off-the-field victory will ultimately prove pyrrhic for the Dolphins on it.
1. Lovie Smith, Buccaneers
Career Record: 81-63 (.563)
Smith headlines what was ultimately an underwhelming group of new hires. Amongst three retreads, three coordinators and one college coach, there were no Marc Trestmans, let alone a Chip Kelly. But there were no outwardly bad hires, and if you’re going to recycle a coach, it might as well be someone like Lovie. A true master of the 4-3, Tampa 2 defense, Smith produced four 10-win campaigns in nine years in Chicago. His downfall was his utter inability to find competent hands on offense. He’s rolling the dice on novice NFL OC Jeff Tedford, who was a quarterback guru at Cal. Smith’s defense will be fine. If Tedford can whip up a good offense — and not get plucked away in the process — Smith should be in for a long stay on the gulf coast of Florida.
2. Mike Zimmer, Vikings
Career Record: ---
The NFL’s preeminent coaching-search bridesmaid, Zimmer is finally the bride. A true defensive guru, Zimmer should instill more base-level discipline and competence than any Vikings coach since Bud Grant. The question is whether his brusque manner will eventually backfire with his front office and players. “Tellin’ it like it is” is an often successful tactic as a coordinator. As a head coach? Let’s just say Rex Ryan hasn’t said anything interesting since 2011. Zimmer has the tools. Now he must show the self-restraint.
3. Ken Whisenhunt, Titans
Career Record: 45-51 (.469)
Whisenhunt was showered with (deserved) plaudits for his work as the Chargers’ offensive coordinator, but is inheriting a situation similar to the one that eventually got him run out of town in Arizona. Whiz has plenty of talent on defense, a couple good receivers and … no quarterback. The Whiz who was in San Diego seemed capable of making any situation work. The Whiz who was in Arizona was never the same after he lost Kurt Warner. Whisenhunt must either fix Jake Locker — an extremely tall task — or hope GM Ruston Webster passes on a Max Hall when he sees one.
4. Bill O’Brien, Texans
Career Record: ---
You could argue O’Brien was the jewel of this coaching class and not be wrong. You could also argue he ultimately hasn’t proven himself as a play-caller at the NFL level, or as a head coach at any level. O’Brien had Tom Brady and Bill Belichick to fall back on at New England, while his “leadership” at Penn State consisted of saying all the right things in public, but seemingly plotting from Day 1 to escape an undesirable situation. O’Brien learned from the best in New England and made the best of a rough situation in Happy Valley. Now he needs to prove he’s able — and willing — to put it all together in Houston.
5. Mike Pettine, Browns
Career Record: ---
For rankings purposes, Pettine and Jay Gruden are interchangeable. Pettine stepped out of Rex Ryan’s shadow and into one of the league’s most underrated, aggressive defenses last season. It would have been nice to see him repeat the performance in 2014, but he’s not a regrettable hire, even if the circumstances he was hired under were. Pettine’s dilemma is the same as it’s been for every man to coach the reincarnated Browns. Where’s the stability, and where’s the quarterback? Pettine will be chewed up and spit out if one or the other isn’t found, but there’s no obvious reason he can’t be the guy to finally calm the waters in Cleveland.
6. Jay Gruden, Redskins
Career Record: ---
When Gruden was hired, the Redskins labeled him a “proven winner,” citing not only his time as the Bengals’ successful, if vanilla, offensive coordinator, but stints in the UFL and AFL. The attempted compliment inadvertently highlighted the main factor working against Gruden: At this point in his NFL career, he’s still more name (Jon’s brother) than game. Gruden improved as a play-caller and game-planner during his three years in Cincinnati, but did little to stand out. Andy Dalton stagnated. A No. 2 receiver never stepped up. Gruden had trouble making the most of his running back and tight end duos in 2013. Now he’s tasked with taking on an entirely different kind of signal caller in Robert Griffin III. Maybe Gruden will spread his wings and fly in Washington, but it won’t exactly be a surprise if he ends up another spare part on tyrannical owner Daniel Snyder’s coaching scrap heap.
7. Jim Caldwell, Lions
Career Record: 26-22 (.542)
Here’s the deal. Caldwell is a nice man who came highly recommended by one of the modern era’s best coaches, Tony Dungy. He did an excellent job turning around the Ravens’ offense in 2012. Aside from that? He’s a coach who’s never won without Peyton Manning, and oversaw one of the most embarrassing seasons in recent memory, the 2011 Colts. Caldwell’s Ravens offense did not take a step forward in 2013, instead regressing across the board. You could look on the bright side and say injuries tanked Caldwell’s offense last season, and that Bill Polian was to blame for 2011. Either way, it’s hard to imagine a more uninspiring hire, especially since the mild-mannered Caldwell’s most pressing tasks are overhauling a stubborn Matthew Stafford’s mechanics and reining in the Lions’ embarrassingly undisciplined defense. Maybe Caldwell will get Stafford to fall in line and kill Ndamukong Suh with kindness. Much more likely is a couple of 6-10 seasons before the Lions embark on a full rebuild.