Once again we’re taking a look at the first round of the 2013 NBA Draft – this time picks 16-30, some notables and finally we’re breaking down the draft day trades.
* Note: For clarification purposes when I use the term ‘Shallow’ leagues I’m generally referring to 8-10 teams and the rest are as follows: Standard (12), Deep (14-20), Super-Deep (20-25) and Massive (25-30 teams). It’s not an exact science as you have to figure how many roster spots you have, etc.
FIRST ROUND 16-30
16. Lucas Nogueira, Spain – C – Hawks (from Celtics)
‘Bebe’ took the basketball world by storm when he fit his oversized NBA team hat onto a massive afro, and if all goes right for the Hawks he’ll be taking that same world by storm with his potentially elite skills protecting the rim. DraftExpress.com calls him “as mobile of a 7-footer as you’ll find on this side of the ocean” (whatever that means), but weighing just 220 pounds there are serious doubts about his ability to patrol the paint at an NBA level.
Offensively he is well-below average with only dunks and putbacks to his repertoire, and his decision-making is only average at best. His experience in Spain has been colored by a lack of playing time and an unregimented environment. Some have also questioned his commitment to the game and in the weight room, and at 20 years old there’s a pretty good chance that he’s not going to find the bulk he desperately needs. Chris Mannix reported on draft night that he would likely be stashed overseas for the upcoming season. Though the Hawks could use somebody to move Al Horford out of the center position, Bebe is a project for at least another year and probably more.
Recommendation: Worth a look in super-deep Dynasty leagues only
17. Dennis Schroeder, Germany – PG – Hawks
Schroeder started his surge up draft boards following the Nike Hoops Summit in April, as the 19-year old took control of his squad’s offense and also took a leadership role with his younger teammates – a reflection of the experience he has gained playing in the German League. His jumper is good enough to convince scouts that he has 3-point potential, but his first step and overall quickness on both sides of the floor are the real draws here.
His smallish 6’2/165 frame is a big concern, but his on-ball defense provides a nice counter to any talk that he will be a defensive liability. Schroeder still needs to address his turnovers, which are a function of his constant attacking, and scouts think it’s within his grasp to get it under control. He lands in Atlanta, where middle-tier starter Jeff Teague is a restricted free agent and should see good interest from potential suitors.
With only a handful of point guards on the market this summer it would be surprising to see Danny Ferry let Teague walk unless he receives a way-over-market offer. Still, with practically no depth in Atlanta behind Lou Williams (ACL surgery) there is plenty of room for Schroeder to earn a 15-25 minute role early on, and some upside beyond that if everything breaks the right way.
Recommendation: Worth owning in deeper Dynasty leagues and worth a look in deeper redraft formats
18. Shane Larkin, Miami – PG – Mavs (from Hawks)
Larkin impressed talent evaluators after a solid sophomore campaign running the show for Miami, proving he can operate the pick-and-roll and hit outside jumpers with regularity. Standing just 5’11” tall, size is going to be an issue against larger point guards, and he will have to take big steps on that end to make any full-time signal calling job a reality.
The son of MLB star Barry Larkin, he’s shown excellent work ethic and combined with his impressive ball-protection and playmaking skills he profiles as a guy that can earn a coach’s trust, albeit with some rough edges to smooth out still. He will likely push Darren Collison for a time-share at some point during the year, and that moment could be sooner rather than later. In a best-case scenario he can topple Collison, who was on the wrong end of Rick Carlisle’s tirades a few too many times last season.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deep Dynasty leagues and drafting today he’s worth owning in super-deep redraft formats.
19. Sergey Karasev, Russia – SF – Cavs
Karasev was predicted by both of our mock drafters to land in Cleveland at No. 19, and he profiles as a 3-point shooter and perimeter-based small forward with major defensive issues. He is also an average athlete at best, and combined with a below average dribble-drive game he’s going to be a one-trick pony early on in his career.
Still, he’s just 19 years old and already has significant professional experience playing internationally and he could make some quick leaps to address those shortcomings. Alonzo Gee is the only real small forward in competition with Karasev for minutes and the Cavs reportedly view Gee “as a backup.” Karasev could leap-frog him right away if he can prove he’s not a total defensive liability. Considering the Cavs have very little depth on the wing in their group of Dion Waiters, C.J. Miles, and RFA Wayne Ellington, the rookie could emerge with some job security if the Cavs don’t acquire a free agent small forward.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deep redraft leagues if the Cavs don’t acquire a small forward, and a player to own in super-deep Dynasty leagues, regardless.
20. Tony Snell, New Mexico – SF – Bulls
The Bulls showed their lack of depth last season and the one major knock on Tom Thibodeau has been the costly culture of playing through injuries he has created in Chicago. Luol Deng, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah are in those injury cross-hairs, and recently Deng has landed in the trade rumor mill though nothing appears to be in the hopper right now.
With Derrick Rose, Jimmy Butler and rumored-to-be-outbound UFA Marco Belinelli the only established wings, and only Butler capable of playing the 3, there is a real chance for Snell to gobble up some wing minutes if he can figure out Thibodeau’s defense. He is a solid 3-point shooter and has the physical tools to be a good defender, but he has suffered from a lack of focus on that end and a lack of aggression in general. Thibs doesn’t really do that, so like it was with Butler it will likely be an all-or-nothing situation with regards to a rotation slot.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper Dynasty leagues and massive redraft formats if Deng stays, and he’ll be worth a look in standard Dynasty leagues and deep redraft leagues if Deng somehow skips town.
21. Gorgui Dieng, Louisville – C – Wolves (from Jazz)
As mentioned before, Flip Saunders and Co. looked to be a bit flummoxed by the night’s events, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that Dieng isn’t a good NBA prospect. With good size and athletic ability for an NBA center, the Big East Defensive POY is well on his way to being a solid rotation player. Limited offensively to clean-up duty and the occasional short-range jumper, he struggles with his back to the basket but the small improvements he has made shooting give some hope that he can continue to develop.
A relatively good decision-maker on offense, too, he profiled as one of the better bets to jump in and give backup minutes immediately in this range of the draft. Nikola Pekovic looks like a good bet to stick around for next year, and it seems likely that Dieng’s selection would make Greg Stiemsma’s team option expendable. Don’t be surprised if during the year Pekovic gets hurt and Dieng becomes a useful source of boards and blocks.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper Dynasty leagues
22. Mason Plumlee, Duke – PF – Nets
The four-year center from Duke lands in Brooklyn as the only true center behind injury-risk Brook Lopez, but he’ll need to work on his lateral quickness and strength before he’s given any rotational minutes. Teams would regularly attack him on the pick-and-roll in college and that spells doom for him in the NBA if he can’t get it cleaned up. His offensive game is very limited and he struggles across most fantasy categories, which doesn’t exactly mesh with a lack of overall upside.
Recommendation: Only on the radar in truly massive formats
23. Solomon Hill, Arizona – SF – Pacers
The Pacers surprised many folks with this selection as Hill was pegged as a second round prospect in most drafts, but it’s clear that they liked what they saw from him as a mature 3-point shooter with good basketball IQ. He has lateral quickness deficiencies and defense will be an issue at the next level, but his work ethic and efficiency on both sides of the floor will go a long way toward covering that up.
A pick that serves as insurance for Danny Granger if he gets hurt or traded, it also bodes well for Hill that the Pacers have very little team-wide depth. His 3-point shooting and relative efficiency will give him a leg up providing fantasy value compared to other low-minute players if he can make the NBA leap.
Recommendation: Worth monitoring in deeper Dynasty leagues and a good preseason could put him on super-deep redraft radars.
24. Tim Hardaway, Jr., Michigan – SG – Knicks
Hardaway enters the league with perhaps a bigger name than his game, but in the end he still profiles as a guy with the chance to one day be a solid rotational player in the league. With middling to above-average attributes in most categories, and an improving shot with 3-point range, he has a shot to contribute if the Knicks can’t re-sign J.R. Smith. If the team is sitting on just Raymond Felton, Pablo Prigioni and Iman Shumpert after the free agency period, there could be some borderline deep league appeal for owners.
Recommendation: Worth a look in deeper redraft formats if J.R. Smith leaves and the Knicks don’t add a guard.
25. Reggie Bullock, North Carolina – SG – Clippers
In terms of a late-first round pick, Bullock is everything the Clippers could have asked for and then some as one of the draft’s best shooters and potential to be a serviceable defender. He was profiled as a spot-up shooter at North Carolina, and that’s where many draftniks believe his upside ends, but it’s possible that his surrounding cast kept him from profiling other parts of his game.
Indeed, he will need to bulk up a bit and work to advance beyond a Danny Green-like offensive skill-set, but with good intangibles he has a shooter’s chance as a role player next season if the last legs of Caron Butler don’t hold up.
Recommendation: Worth a look in massive re-draft formats and super-deep Dynasty leagues
26. Andre Roberson, Colorado – SF/PF – Thunder (from Wolves)
Roberson appears to be the Thunder’s draft day attempt to find a successor for Thabo Sefolosha on the defensive end, albeit more slanted to cover the 3s and 4s (think LeBron James). He can defend the shooting guard position, too, and is also a plus-rebounder for his position. The bad news is that he really struggled shooting the ball (55.1% FTs) and he’s a bit undersized for his offensive position as a power forward. With no clear shot at a rotation slot and a lack of fantasy upside, owners can safely ignore him.
Recommendation: Ignore in all formats.
27. Rudy Gobert, France – PF/C – Jazz (from Nuggets)
At 7’1” tall with a 12-foot max vertical leap, Gobert has upside as a defensive presence in the NBA but at just 237 pounds he has a long ways to go gaining the strength necessary to bang down low. Other than soft hands and a decent free throw stroke (70% last year), his offense is very limited and his athleticism is sub-par. Gobert will likely play overseas or in the D-League next season, and with the Jazz frontcourt stocked the upside equation doesn’t justify fantasy attention this year.
Recommendation: Ignore in all formats
28. Livio Jean-Charles, France – SF/PF – Spurs
When the pick was called the first words out of Doc’s mouth was “that was a very Spurs-like pick.” Known for their draft scouting and overseas work, Jean-Charles is a credible pickup in a section of the draft where the success rate is low. He took over the Nike Hoops Summit and subsequently got a promise from the Spurs, and did not work out for any other teams.
Ball-handling and building his strength are the areas he needs to work on, and he will likely be stashed overseas for at least a year. That means he should be available in almost all Dynasty leagues, so owners can watch his development from afar, but this is the type of player that does the little things and those guys have a knack for showing up on the floor under Gregg Popovich.
Recommendation: Worth a look in massive Dynasty leagues
29. Archie Goodwin, Kentucky – SG – Suns (from Warriors by way of Thunder)
Goodwin had a tale of two seasons last year as a freshman for Kentucky, and at 18 years of age he was the youngest American selected Thursday night. A prototypical upside pick, he has the athleticism and size to make an impact at his natural shooting guard position down the road, but overall inconsistency and some question marks about his mental makeup caused him to fall this far.
The good news is that he seemed to play better against good opposition before an in-conference slump dragged him down, and the Suns apparently view him also as a point guard. It wouldn’t be shocking to learn that they hope he can be the answer for disappointing Kendall Marshall as the backup to Goran Dragic. With Phoenix having some of the worst depth in the league, Goodwin is a stone throw’s away from deep league relevancy.
Recommendation: Worth a look in super-deep Dynasty leagues
30. Nemanja Nedovic, Lithuania – PG – Warriors (from Suns)
After a few small trades that saw Archie Goodwin and Malcolm Lee pass through the Warriors’ possession, they settled on Nedovic as a backup point guard with the last pick of the first round. Nedovic has good athleticism and playmaking ability, but his fundamentals, handle and decision-making need work and that will keep him anchored to the bench for most of this year.
That said, if the Warriors cannot re-sign Jarrett Jack then a late-season role as the swing backup at guard is within his reach, depending on who the Warriors may pick up to backup the point.
Recommendation: Worth a look in massive Dynasty leagues if Jarrett Jack skips town
31. Allen Crabbe, Cal – SG – Blazers
Crabbe faces more competition than he can handle from a fantasy perspective with Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Wesley Matthews and Nicolas Batum ahead of him. But he is one of the best 3-point shooters in this year’s draft and when one considers the lack of NBA-level talent on the Blazers’ roster, it’s conceivable he finds his way into the rotation at some point. Just keep his name in the Rolodex if injuries strike down the road.
Recommendation: Worth a look in massive Dynasty leagues
35. Glen Rice, Jr., NBADL – SF – Wizards
Rice will enter this season with very little chance at playing time in a loaded wing set that includes Bradley Beal, Otto Porter and Trevor Ariza. And there are plenty of red flags for Rice, who was kicked off his college team for disciplinary reasons and doesn’t play hard or smart. But like his father, he can shoot the lights out as he averaged a 40 percent clip from distance in the D-League, where he took over last season. If he can straighten out the deficiencies and keep from being a liability, and walk in a straight line off the court, then he could have some super-deep league value as a 3-point shooter.
Recommendation: Worth a look in super-deep Dynasty leagues and massive redraft leagues
37. Tony Mitchell, North Texas – SF/PF – Pistons
Mitchell had a first round grade by many and fell into the second round amidst concerns about his intangibles, and is your prototypical boom-or-bust prospect with plenty of athleticism. He won’t get any immediate access to playing time behind Greg Monroe and Andre Drummond, but beyond that he has just Charlie Villanueva to compete with on the current roster (Jason Maxiell is a free agent). He won’t likely make an impact in fantasy leagues of any type this season, but the lack of depth in Detroit puts him one injury away from relevancy – if he can hack it.
Recommendation: Worth a look in super-deep Dynasty leagues if he has a noteworthy preseason
39. Jeff Withey, Kansas – C – Blazers
Withey has a ways to go before he hits the fantasy radar – namely he has to make a name for himself during Summer League and training camp – but with J.J. Hickson’s future in doubt and LaMarcus Aldridge popping up in trade rumors, there could be an opening for a senior that averaged 13.7 points, 8.5 rebounds and a whopping 3.9 blocks per game last season for Kansas.
DraftExpress called him possibly the best defender in the NCAA last season, but noted his struggles on offense and the chance his sub-par athleticism has neared its ceiling as a senior. If he can beat out Joel Freeland for backup center duties, the next rung up on the ladder in Meyers Leonard is still more ‘potential’ than ‘productivity.’ There is upside for boards and blocks here but he’s going to have to address the physical issues before he will get enough minutes to accumulate any fantasy value.
Recommendation: Worth a look in massive Dynasty leagues
DRAFT DAY TRADE DIARY
***The Celtics traded Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce and Jason Terry for Gerald Wallace, Kris Humphries, MarShon Brooks and three first round picks, among other spare parts.
***The Sixers traded Jrue Holiday for No. 6 pick Nerlens Noel and the Hornets top-5 protected first round pick in 2014.
Gerald Wallace – Crash. As in 20-car pileup. It was hard to watch Wallace lose all of his confidence and wear his contract like a scarlet letter all season long, which was only exasperated by the Blazers grabbing Damian Lillard with the pick it cost the Nets to get him. Always prone to streaky shooting from year-to-year, it was still shocking to see him attempt just 6.6 shots per game last year in a sizable 30 minutes per contest (his lowest total since he played nine mpg for Sacramento in 2003-04).
Part of that was having heavy-touch guys all around him in Brooklyn, but the other part of that was him running away from the ball. With a history of his shot coming and going, and the potential that he is asked to do much more in Boston, fantasy owners shouldn’t outright ignore Wallace this year.
His defensive numbers didn’t slip much, if at all last season, and while a repeat of past top-50 campaigns is probably asking for too much – a bounce-back campaign likely sees him wander into the top-75 per-game rankings. Owners will want to adjust for the injury risk and chance he’s over the hill, but as of right now he looks like a good late-round value if he’s not overvalued by the crowd that thinks he’s still Bobcat Wallace.
Kris Humphries – If it's possible for Humphries to pull out of his lateral spin, a change of scenery playing for a team going through reclamation shock might be the way to do it. But still, it’s hard to ignore his disappearance last year and if we’re drafting today he’s well off the standard league radar. Don’t be surprised if he’s moved again, as Charlotte’s name continues to come up in the rumor mill.
MarShon Brooks – Brooks took a nosedive in Brooklyn last year when he proved his rookie season to be a fluke, as he was no longer one of the team’s only scorers and the Nets were no longer playing in a garbage-time environment every night. Yes, the Celtics are going to lack depth and they’ll need scoring, but they already have a defensive liability with poor shot selection in Jordan Crawford, among others, and there’s no guarantee Brooks can earn significant minutes. I’m waiting for multiple solid reports that he has turned the page before I’m paying too much attention here.
BROOKLYN NET WORTH
Kevin Garnett – KG dropped from a top 15-25 per-game play in 2011-12 to a top 35-50 guy last season, but playing in just 68 games he just missed being a true draft day win for fantasy owners. His numbers all stayed within a normal range with the exception of a seven-point drop in free throw percentage (78.6) over the past two seasons, but signs of decline were evident as he took incremental hits in many categories.
It comes with the territory for a 37-year old player, who will now get perhaps his last shot at a title playing in Prokhorov’s billion dollar playpen. The Nets have bodies in Mirza Teletovic and rookie Miles Plumlee to help spell Garnett during the season, but they could really use Andray Blatche (UFA) back next season and it’s unclear if they will want to pay him.
Either way it’s fair for owners to expect a similar 26-29 mpg role for KG, and with some injury risk he looks like a guy to start considering in the late-middle rounds. It’s not going to help that he’s surrounded by guys capable of cutting into his touches, but Garnett doesn’t need the ball in his hands to be effective and he may also see a rebounding bump playing next to phobic glass cleaner Brook Lopez.
Paul Pierce – Every year there is a group of older players that are undervalued in drafts because of the threat of decline, and as usual Pierce helped carry the torch for those of advanced age. He had a top-40 finish on a per-game basis and played in 77 games, though he often looked like he was falling apart in the process.
Moving over to Brooklyn he’s going to see a distinct change at the point guard position with willing scorer Deron Williams versus pass-happy Rajon Rondo. He’s also going to contend with open mouths to feed in Joe Johnson, Kevin Garnett and Brook Lopez. If the Nets are wise they move Johnson way off the ball and into spot-up position behind the arc, and while Garnett doesn’t demand many touches both Williams and Bropez will – so the days of Pierce dominating the ball like he did late last season are pretty much over. Targeting him somewhere in the later-middle rounds to start makes sense.
Jason Terry – The Jet gets out of Boston and it’s doubtful that either party is crying after the one-year experiment gone wrong. Terry is a long-shot to win any fantasy awards coming off the bench in a loaded lineup, but he is in striking distance of the top-75 if he can secure 27-30 mpg and add about 3-4 shot attempts per game over last year’s 8.2 mark.
Despite his often invisible role for the Celtics, his shooting numbers held strong and his value will be buoyed by his 3-point shooting. Like Gerald Wallace, there’s some value in the late rounds if your adversaries aren’t drafting him like he’s Dallas Terry.
NADS, THE SAM HINKIE STORY
It took some tweeting by our own resident Sixers expert Adam Levitan to chill me out on my empathy for Philly fans, who appeared to be gut-punched following the trade of Jrue Holiday to the Pelicans for the plummeting No. 6 pick Nerlens Noel.
It didn’t help that Adrian Wojnarowski originally tweeted that the first round pick was going from the Sixers to the Pelicans. He eventually set the record straight during the middle of the chaos, but still, the outcry from analysts everywhere (this guy included) was a dying trumpet sound.
As Levitan pointed out, however, hanging on the middle rungs of mediocrity is a sure path to nowhere in the NBA. Getting a potential big-time talent in Noel and a top-5 protected pick from a likely cellar dweller in the Hornets to be used in a loaded 2014 draft isn’t a bad call. And yes, Holiday is an above average point guard in the league on the upswing, but the net effect of this swap just positions them better as they tank the season – with the side benefit that Michael Carter-Williams gets a year to try and become a serviceable starting NBA point guard. They'll likely have the Hornets pick and their own lottery pick to reload with and they got younger in the process.
It's not a guaranteed success but hanging onto Holiday and winning 49 games wasn't bringing the next Julius Erving through that door. It's the same type of move the Sixers made with Andrew Bynum, which incidentally failed in spectacular fashion. And this move may not work out either.
It's a bold and ballsy decision, but as they say it's better to have lived than to never have gotten out of the first round (or so the legend goes).
As for Holiday’s value, he’s certainly not going to New Orleans to step aside for Greivis Vasquez or anybody else, and the only real concern I’d have about his value is that the Pelicans don’t ride him nearly as hard as Doug Collins did in Philly. Eric Gordon could also try to take the air out of the basketball (or take his ball and go home), but with relatively little depth there should be enough touches to go around. He’ll have plenty of weapons to space the floor with, too.
Owners can move into next year with the same expectations, as his improvement will likely outweigh any decrease in usage. As for Vasquez, he was a fantasy system guy in that turnover leagues killed him and his peripherals weren’t strong – keeping him in the 65-100 range on a per-game basis. Now that he’ll be moved into a swing backup guard role and off the ball, he’s going to struggle to maintain standard league value as long as injury-prone Gordon is healthy.