If Jimmy Garoppolo shines in 4 games, who in NFL would make push for him?
This time one year ago, the NFL at large barely knew Brock Osweiler. Buried behind the Denver Broncos’ Peyton Manning, his draft dossier was collecting dust in opposing personnel departments, slowly decaying until an unexpected break changed everything.
But a few solid games and timing carried a quarterback from the bench in Denver to the starting job in Houston, with a promise of $72 million along the way.
New England Patriots backup Jimmy Garoppolo has that chance. That is what’s at stake inside the four-game suspension of Tom Brady, a window of guaranteed opportunity for Garoppolo. It’s a gift, offering Garoppolo the possibility to emerge as a legitimate starter, a valuable trade commodity, an eventual replacement for Brady. Or he could prove to be a flop, another career backup whose greatest security was the comfort of being the guy behind a certain Hall of Famer.
Garoppolo’s four starts won’t be easy. His road opener at the Arizona Cardinals was billed as a Super Bowl preview before Brady gave up the fight against his four-game deflate-gate suspension. And the home tilts against the Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills aren’t cakewalks, either. Indeed, the Cardinals and Texans should have two of the best defenses in the NFL. Miami has got enough pieces to be in that mix, too. And games between the Patriots and Bills are usually entertaining.
That lineup only guarantees that we’ll know something new about Garoppolo when it’s all over. Good, bad or mixed. With that in mind, there are a handful of teams or individuals who should be particularly interested in what Garoppolo can do.
Here are five of them …
1. Anyone aligned with the Patriots
Tom Brady turns 39 in August. He is still playing at a high level. But it would be naïve to believe it’s a lock that he has another three or four years left in the tank. As the 2013 season wrapped up, it also looked like Peyton Manning could trek another four or five years … and he lasted two. While Manning’s nerve damage certainly played a part in his slide, the point is there are no guarantees when it comes to quarterbacks approaching 40. Brady is late into the winter of his career. And history suggests the end will be a cliff rather than a slow, delicate decline.
With that in mind, Garoppolo’s performance early in the season will say a lot about how far he has come in two seasons, and how much room he has left to grow. He knows the offense. He knows the personnel. And thanks to Brady’s sense of security, Garoppolo will have an elite quarterback in his hip pocket for weeks before the season begins. That’s a big deal. Just ask the quarterbacks who didn’t get it (see: Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers).
If Garoppolo improves from his first to fourth game, that’s going to open up some possibilities for New England. One of which is considering a transition beyond Brady as early as 2018, when Garoppolo will be eligible for a new contract or his first franchise tag. If Garoppolo struggles significantly and doesn’t show signs of improvement, that will be a red flag. One that might jump-start a transition toward Jacoby Brissett as the future backup.
2. Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels
McDaniels has to be broken out of the previous group for one reason: There is a chance that he won’t be a Patriots coach after 2016. And for that reason, what he learns about Garoppolo could play a big part in McDaniels’ plans for life elsewhere.
Despite being shut out of head-coaching interviews last offseason, McDaniels is almost certain to get renewed interest on that carousel. Particularly if the Patriots put a solid offense on the field without Brady. In the short term, McDaniels stands to see his coaching profile bolstered with Garoppolo’s. Very much like how McDaniels reaped the rewards of Matt Cassel’s success in 2008. Cassel’s surprising development in his one year as a New England starter was an immense bullet point on McDaniels’ resume. A strong four-game showing with Garoppolo could have a similar impact.
In the longer view, getting a closer look at Garoppolo could do more than help land McDaniels another job. It could also be the audition tape for McDaniels’ next starting quarterback (should he actually get another NFL head coaching job). Lest anyone forget, McDaniels shredded his relationship with Jay Cutler when he took over the Denver Broncos in 2009, and his first salvo was kicking around a trade of Cutler for Cassel. If Garoppolo is worth his salt and McDaniels gets another coaching shot next offseason, there’s a high-percentage chance he’ll want to cast his lot with a known commodity. That makes Garoppolo’s four starts very valuable for McDaniels’ future plans.
3. San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers’ quarterback situation is in a flux season. They might have their answer on the roster if Chip Kelly can salvage something between Blaine Gabbert and Colin Kaepernick. But San Francisco has positioned itself to pivot elsewhere next offseason if that is necessary – or a significant opportunity presents itself.
Garoppolo makes a lot of sense here. The 49ers added some 2017 draft ammunition by acquiring extra picks in the fifth, sixth and seventh rounds. They also have the salary-cap room to build around a quarterback quickly. All they seem to lack is a candidate who fits into Kelly’s system. Garoppolo might be that player.
When Kelly was coaching the Philadelphia Eagles, Garoppolo was a subject of internal conversations prior to the 2014 draft. At that time, he was considered a good fit for Kelly’s scheme. Indeed, Garoppolo may not need to thrive in his stint as a starter to draw Kelly’s eye. If he can showcase enough of the traits Kelly liked before the 2014 draft (quick decisions, quick delivery and enough athleticism), he could be seen as a player who will blossom with added opportunity.
4. New Orleans Saints
The Saints are still trying to get an extension done with Drew Brees. But the cost to do it is going to be extremely prohibitive whether it’s now or next offseason, and there is some upside to the Saints waiting until next offseason. That upside? Like every other late-30s quarterback, there is no certainty what the next season will bring. Brees could hit a wall this year. And if that happens, head coach Sean Payton has plenty of long-term familiarity with Garoppolo, who pushed Payton’s name down the passing records at Eastern Illinois. Replacing Brees with Garoppolo in 2017 is a long shot, but one thing is clear right now: New Orleans isn’t certain that it has a long-term replacement on the roster. If Brees doesn’t sign an extension this season and subsequently shows some decline, that opens up some possibilities.
5. Washington Redskins/Cleveland Browns
The New York Jets and Buffalo Bills could be on this list, too, but it’s unthinkable that the Patriots would ever think of trading Garoppolo within the AFC East. That leaves the Redskins and Browns as the teams that are taking wait-and-see approaches with their quarterbacks this year.
The Redskins could have committed a concrete salary structure to Kirk Cousins this offseason, but decided to let one more year play out. If Cousins comes close to replicating last season’s numbers (and beats some teams that finish with a winning record), he’s going to get a major financial commitment. The Browns, on the other hand, are essentially wide open and could go in any direction next offseason. That includes committing to Robert Griffin III if he gets back on track. All things considered, the prospects seem far better for Cousins than Griffin at this stage.
All of that said, a door could be opened in either franchise for another quarterback in 2017. And while there could be some criticisms of scheme and coaching fits in both places for Garoppolo, he could show some new wrinkles in his skills this season, too. The 2017 draft class doesn’t look stellar where it concerns quarterbacks, either. That can always change, of course. But if it doesn’t, quarterback-needy teams could always look to tailor their scheme for a player like Garoppolo.
