The History of No. 1

Gabe DeArmond, Publisher
Power Missouri

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Small forward

5 STARS

Missouri
Seattle

RR:

Ht: 6'9.0"

Wt: 220.0

Class: 2017

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POSITION

NATIONAL

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STATE

Commitment status:

verbal

Missouri

You may have heard by now that Missouri landed the No. 1 basketball recruit in the country last week. Michael Porter Jr. has been atop the 2017 Rivals150 for a while now, and is expected to retain that spot after his performance at the McDonald's all-American Game this week.

It is the first time in the Rivals.com era that Mizzou has landed the country's top player. The previous highest-ranked recruit was Linas Kleiza, who was No. 17 in 2003 (Tony Mitchell was No. 12 in 2010, but did not qualify). So what can Tiger fans expect? Here is a look at the previous top-ranked prospects, along with some perspective on their impact on their college teams.

We listed the player's statistics, along with the team's performance the year before the prospect arrived and during his first (and only) year on campus. We tracked players beginning in 2006, the first year after the NBA instituted the rule that players must be a year out of high school before entering the draft.

Rivals.com Top Basketball Prospects

Year

Player

Team

Stats

Record Before

Record After

2016

Josh Jackson

Kansas

16.3 ppg, 7.4 rpg, 30.8 mpg, all-Big 12

33-5, Lost in Elite Eight

31-5, Lost in Elite Eight

2015

Skai Labissiere

Kentucky

6.6 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 15.8 mpg

38-1, Lost National Semifinal

27-9, Lost 2nd Round

2014

Jahlil Okafor

Duke

17.3 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 30.1 mpg, ACC POY, all-American

26-9, Lost 2nd Round

35-4, National Champions

2013

Andrew Wiggins

Kansas

17.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg, 32.8 mpg, all-Big 12

31-6, Lost in Sweet 16

25-10, Lost in 2nd Rd

2012

Shabazz Muhammad

UCLA

17.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 30.8 mpg, all-PAC 12, 2nd-team all-American

19-14, no postseason

25-10, Lost First Round

2011

Austin Rivers

Duke

15.5 ppg, 3.4 rpg, 33.2 mpg

32-5, Lost Sweet 16

27-7, Lost First Round

2010

Josh Selby

Kansas

7.9 ppg, 2.2 rpg, 20.4 mpg

33-3, Lost 2nd Round

35-3, Lost in Elite Eight

2009

John Wall

Kentucky

16.6 ppg, 6.5 apg, 4.3 rpg, 34.8 mpg, SEC POY, All-American

22-14, NIT Quarters

35-3, Lost in Elite Eight

2008

B.J. Mullens

Ohio State

8.8 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 20.3 mpg, Big 10 6th man of yr

24-13, NIT Champions

22-11, Lost First Round

2007

Michael Beasley

Kansas St.

26.2 ppg, 12.4 rpg, 31.5 mpg, Big 12 POY, All-American

23-12, lost NIT 2nd Rd

21-12, Lost 2nd Round

2006

Greg Oden

Ohio State

15.7 ppg, 9.6 rpg, 28.9 mpg, All-Big 10, Big 10 DPOY, All-American

26-6, Lost 2nd Round

35-4, Lost National Final

The average record of teams that the top prospect joined was 28-8. Seven of the 11 teams had made the NCAA Tournament the season before and only one, UCLA, did not make the postseason the year before signing the top national prospect. The Bruins won 19 games, which was the fewest among the 11 teams we looked at here.

The average record of teams the year after the No. 1 prospect arrived was 29-7. All ten teams made the NCAA Tournament. Two made the Final Four and one (Duke with Jahlil Okafor) won the national championship. Seven teams went further in the postseason and one reached the same point, though four of them actually had a worse record.

The overall impact of the top recruit was technically only one win. Of course, that is skewed by five of those players joining teams that had already won at least 31 games the season before they arrived.

In other words, no top prospect has ever joined a team (in this era) like Missouri. The Tigers won just eight games last season and have won only 27 in the previous three (fewer than four of the teams in this table won in a single season prior to adding the top prospect in the country).

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Greg Oden and Jahlil Okafor both helped their teams improve by nine wins in year one. Okafor won the national title and Oden finished as a runner-up. John Wall helped Kentucky jump by 13 wins, though that also had plenty to do with John Calipari replacing Billy Gillispie.

The least impact was felt from Skai Labissiere. Kentucky won 11 fewer games.. B.J. Mullens had a marginal impact on Ohio State. The record was almost identical, but Mullens was not a starter on the Buckeyes' NCAA Tournament team. Kansas actually won more games with Josh Selby than the previous year, but his contribution was limited due to suspension and injury and he did not even play in Kansas' NCAA Tournament loss that season.

Of course, the previous experience of the top players is simply a guideline. Porter is none of those players. How his college career will go is an unknown. Rivals.com national basketball analyst Eric Bossi lent some perspective on Porter compared to prior top prospects.

"Michael is a kid who's pushing 6-10 has an unbelievable skill level and I think what separates him is you see so many kids with that size and skill who are really power forwards who are trying to be wing players," Bossi said. "The class of 2016 has proven to be an incredible class and I think he has the potential to be better than any of them.

"Not all number ones are built the same. This guy is number one because of pro potential and because of his potential the day he arrives on campus."

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