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Forde's Fab Four: Which team deserves top seed in playoff bracket?

Every week, I will play Selection Committee member, take a look at the College Football Playoff picture and offer my bracket as if today were Selection Sunday. Feel free to agree or disagree, starting with this: who is No. 1?

No. 1 Mississippi State vs. No. 4 Auburn in the Sugar Bowl

The Bulldogs held their spot by a decreasing margin, needing a last-minute interception in the end zone by defensive back Will Redmond to beat Arkansas in Starkville. While not a rousing victory, it was a win – and that’s all State needs to stay in the bracket. The question is whether that’s what the Bulldogs need to remain ahead of Florida State for the top seed – and that matters. Top seed in this rodeo seems destined to play in the Sugar Bowl, which is much more desirable geographically for teams (and their fans) from the Southeast than being shipped to the Rose Bowl. There's a more detailed breakdown of the résumés of Mississippi State and Florida State below. It’s a close call, but for now the edge still belongs to Dan Mullen’s team. Stat: Arkansas’ 10-0 lead in the second quarter was the first double-digit deficit the Bulldogs have faced all season. Their immediate response was an 11-play, 75-yard touchdown drive that began a 17-0 run the rest of the way. Next: Tennessee-Martin, a glorified scrimmage that should allow State to rest its key players most of the game in preparation for the showdown at Alabama on Nov. 15.

(Yahoo Sports illustration)
(Yahoo Sports illustration)

There's something about November that triggers the Tigers’ inner drama queen. Going back to last year, their three games against ranked opponents have been won in the final minutes on plays that defy description and belief. There was the Prayer in Jordan-Hare to beat Georgia last year, followed by the miracle to beat Alabama. Now add the fracture-fumble fiasco for Mississippi that turned a near-certain defeat into a stirring Auburn victory in Oxford. Fortunate as the Tigers have at times been, they’ve also put themselves in position to win big games against quality teams, then made a play when it absolutely had to be made. Stat: Auburn has scored at least 21 points in every SEC game under Gus Malzahn (14 and counting). Prior to his arrival, Auburn hadn’t scored more than 21 against an SEC opponent in 10 straight games. Next: Texas A&M, a relative soft spot in the nation’s toughest schedule.

No. 2 Florida State vs. No. 3 Oregon in the Rose Bowl

The Seminoles survived what should be their last significant test of the regular season at Louisville on Thursday, rallying from a 21-point hole in the second quarter to win 42-31. It took FSU quite a while to get untracked against a Cardinals defense that was best in the nation in yards allowed – but when Jameis Winston got cranked up, there was no stopping the 'Noles. They scored 35 second-half points, and their 574 total yards was the most Louisville has allowed since 2008. Florida State got some breaks to come back – falling on a fumble in the end zone for one touchdown, and Winston threading a dangerous pass between colliding Cardinals for another TD – but mostly they made their own luck on the road in a raucous environment. Stat: A team that has been searching from some additional playmakers got a lift from a trio of freshmen in Louisville – running back Dalvin Cook and receivers Ermon Lane and Travis Rudolph combined for 284 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns. That tickled coach Jimbo Fisher. Next: Virginia, which has lost 11 of its last 12 road games and eight straight – but the Cavaliers did win their last visit to Tallahassee, a 14-13 shocker in 2011 as a 17-point underdog.

Oregon retained a place in my Fab Four and should enter the College Football Playoff selection committee’s bracket this week. Its win over fading, 5-4 Stanford won’t move the needle a lot in terms of power ratings, but it was a major victory for the Ducks. The Cardinal was Oregon’s season-wrecking nemesis the previous two seasons, punishing the Ducks and branding them with the damning “soft” label. They weren’t soft in rolling up 525 yards and 45 points Saturday, nor were they in September when they whipped physical Michigan State by 19 points. So consider that reputation dismissed for now. Stat: Since losing to Arizona on Oct. 2, Oregon has beaten four straight teams with winning records by convincing margins: 12 over UCLA; 25 over Washington; 18 over California; and now 29 over Stanford. Next: At Utah on Saturday, in a big matchup that could have been bigger had the Utes not bungled away a big win at Arizona State late Saturday night.

Dropped out: none.

Also considered: Alabama, Notre Dame, Kansas State, TCU, Michigan State.