Forde's Fab Four: Mississippi State still in picture despite loss to Alabama
Every week, I will play Selection Committee member, take a look at the College Football Playoff picture and offer my bracket as if today were Selection Sunday. Feel free to agree or disagree, starting with this question: does the SEC merit two teams in the bracket while evicting the Big 12?
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Mississippi State in the Sugar Bowl
Look who’s back in the field – and back large. It’s Alabama, which flexed its muscle in beating Mississippi State and jumped all the way up to No. 1. That’s the Crimson Tide’s signature victory, but there are plenty of other solid wins to stack alongside it: West Virginia, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Tennessee and LSU. And the lone loss is by six points at No. 10 Mississippi. This Alabama team isn’t as dominant as some of the recent national champions, but in a year without truly great teams, it may be the best of a flawed bunch. Stat: The Tide has been a demonstrably stronger team at home this year, and from late in the third quarter against Florida on Sept. 20 through late in the second quarter Saturday against Mississippi State, ‘Bama scored 99 unanswered points in Bryant-Denny Stadium: the final 21 against Florida, all 59 against Texas A&M and the first 19 against the Bulldogs. Next: breather against Western Carolina while surreptitiously preparing for Auburn on Nov. 29.
Mississippi State fell hard in Tuscaloosa, but doesn’t fall out of the Fab Four. The Bulldogs were on the verge of being run out of Bryant-Denny Stadium but regrouped and made a game of it, showing their mettle. Even though all three of their quality wins took a hit Saturday – Auburn lost to Georgia, LSU lost to Arkansas and Texas A&M lost to Missouri – they still have more on the resume than Baylor, TCU and Ohio State. (TCU’s “differentiating” non-conference victory over Minnesota was diminished a bit by Ohio State beating the Gophers, almost assuring that Minnesota will drop out of the CFP selection committee top 25. Baylor was off and closes with home games against unraveling Oklahoma State, awful Texas Tech and Kansas State. Ohio State no longer has the chance to play a one-loss opponent in the Big Ten championship game, after Nebraska was trampled by Melvin Gordon and Wisconsin.) Stat: Quarterback Dak Prescott’s 108.3 efficiency rating against Alabama was his lowest of the season and his three interceptions tied his career high. Next: Vanderbilt comes to Starkville. Not sure the Commodores are good enough to do it, but this is a classic trap-game scenario coming off a deflating loss and with arch-rival Mississippi waiting on Nov. 29.
No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 3 Florida State in the Rose Bowl
On a day when three other one-loss teams fell – Arizona State, Nebraska and Duke – the Ducks enjoyed not playing and held on to the No. 2 spot. The Sun Devils’ upset loss to Oregon State means Oregon is the only realistic Pac-12 playoff contender at this point. They still have quality wins over Michigan State and UCLA, and have recorded five straight dominant victories. But the next two opponents (Colorado and Oregon State) won’t help them much before playing USC, UCLA, Arizona, Arizona State or Utah in the league championship game. Stat: Oregon showed some killer instinct against Stanford and Utah its last two games, outscoring them by a combined 38-7 in the fourth quarter. Next: Colorado.
It was a typical week for the Seminoles: bad off-field headlines leading up to the game, risk of losing throughout the game, then pull out the victory. This time the issue was a New York Times story Friday on an October hit-and-run accident involving defensive back P.J. Williams, who for some reason received only two traffic tickets for the incident despite leaving the scene. Williams started Saturday against Miami – of course – and was part of a defensive effort that limited the Hurricanes to just three points over the final 41 minutes of the game after the Seminoles had fallen behind 23-7. This week’s lucky breaks for the 'Noles: a missed chip-shot field goal by Miami and a deflected Jameis Winston pass into traffic that landed in the hands of running back Karlos Williams, who ran it in for a touchdown. Combine the close calls, lucky breaks and continued diminution of Florida State’s victories over Notre Dame (lost to Northwestern) and Clemson (blown out by Georgia Tech), it’s not a hard call to drop Florida State to third. Undefeated is nice, but the Seminoles are just begging to be beaten.
Dropped out: Baylor.
Also considered: Baylor, TCU, Ohio State, Mississippi.
