Football by the Numbers: Matchup Decider

These rankings are for the purpose of predicting how many fantasy points defenses will allow to offensive players this week.


I understand with all the byes this week that you have to play someone and may not be able to avoid all of those who have bad matchups. But maybe you can pick some players who have easier matchups, as indicated below.
If you have other questions relating to matchups, feel free to ask them via Twitter @MichaelSalfino. I cannot emphasize enough that these defensive rankings have nothing to do with which defense to play in fantasy.
This week's highlighted matchups follow after the chart. But first a word about the categories. Only "Red Zone" is a little tricky. We're not talking efficiency there, but rather red zone possessions allowed. Red zone possessions have proven over many years to be more useful in predicting future defensive performances. RYPG is rushing yards per game. RTD/G is rushing TDs per game. PYPG is passing yards per game. PTD/G is passing TDs/per game. Yardage allowed is more reliable than touchdowns allowed for predictive purposes. Ideally, the two correlate. But some teams really can be break but don't bend, e.g., teams that blitz a lot.
Defensive Power Rankings


Teams are sorted by cumulative rankings in all categories. Lowest total number is best; highest is worst.

Rank

Team

RZ

RYPG

RTD/G

PYPG

PTD/G

POWER

1

San Francisco

1

10

4

1

1

17

2

Seattle

12

6

4

8

1

31

3

Chicago

7

2

2

16

5

32

4

Houston

4

5

1

5

23

38

5

Detroit

2

16

2

6

14

40

6

Arizona

9

20

11

4

1

45

7

Dallas

9

15

19

3

10

56

8

Minnesota

16

12

12

11

8

59

9

Pittsburgh

17

9

12

2

20

60

10

Philadelphia

20

14

4

15

10

63

11

St Louis

12

11

22

14

5

64

12

San Diego

7

1

4

25

29

66

13

Green Bay

6

17

12

18

19

72

14

NY Giants

3

23

8

21

18

73

15

Miami

22

4

10

28

10

74

16

Atlanta

4

28

26

12

5

75

17

Denver

22

18

12

10

21

83

17

New England

9

8

8

29

29

83

19

NY Jets

12

30

25

9

8

84

19

Tampa Bay

17

3

19

31

14

84

21

Carolina

27

19

12

19

14

91

22

Cincinnati

12

22

27

17

14

92

23

Oakland

17

13

23

22

21

96

24

Indianapolis

20

26

27

7

24

104

25

Baltimore

28

27

27

23

1

106

25

Washington

26

7

12

32

29

106

27

Kansas City

29

21

19

13

28

110

28

Cleveland

24

24

12

26

27

113

29

Jacksonville

32

29

27

24

10

122

30

Buffalo

24

32

32

20

24

132

31

Tennessee

29

25

23

27

29

133

32

New Orleans

31

31

27

30

24

143



Matchups to exploit
Colts at Titans (31): This is a great matchup for Andrew Luck and his receivers, for sure. So empty your bench, especially if they're needed on the bye. Vick Ballard should be started in every league, too. He's in line for the bulk of the carries and the Titans are only slightly more stout versus the run. Expect another big game from Chris Johnson, who is up to 4.5 yards per carry now, against one of the poorer run defenses in the NFL in allowing both yards and rushing touchdowns. Johnson, remember, had two scores and was also tackled twice inside the Bills one-yard line.
Packers vs. Jaguars (29): Notice how poor the Jaguars run defense is and make sure you start Alex Green, who should be very productive. As hot as Aaron Rodgers is now, you obviously will play all Packers receivers, even chronically disappointing tight end Jermichael Finley.
Chargers vs. Browns (28): Cleveland is especially poor against the pass. And I don't want anyone lecturing me in the comments about how Joe Haden is back now. Big deal: he's been average at best thus far in his career (actually below average in QB rating allowed when targeted – 79 this year and 87.2 in 2011). So don't wory so much if he is matched up against Malcom Floyd. Start Philip Rivers with confidence.
Matchups to avoid
Panthers at Bears (3): This game is not likely to be good for Cam Newton's increasingly fragile psyche. Forget about Steve Smith, too, unless you are really in a pinch. The Bears are just really nasty, especially in Chicago.
Lions (5) vs. Seahawks (2): Bad news not just for the Lions of course but for the Seahawks, too. Matthew Stafford's rough season continues. Bench him for a backup or a waiver-wire addition. Remember, he's banged up, too. You have to play Megatron, but this will not be the breakout game even though I admit that skills like his can be matchup defying. You're not playing any Seattle receivers, right? That would be unwise given how stingy Detroit is in permitting passing yards.
49ers (1) at Cardinals (5): Of course you're not going to play any Cardinals except Larry Fitzgerald (with fingers crossed for one TD). But on the other side, you don't want to roll marginal receivers and quarterbacks out against Arizona, either. I know that Vernon Davis is a premium talent. But it's hard to trust him against a good pass defense when you remember that he wasn't even targeted one time against the Seahawks. There is just no imagination in the design of the San Francisco passing game when it comes to dictating mismatches with their best player. Expect another rough day for Alex Smith, too.

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