Football by the Numbers: Matchup Decider

These rankings are for the purpose of predicting how many fantasy points defenses will allow to offensive players this week.


If you have other questions relating to matchups, feel free to ask them via Twitter @MichaelSalfino. I cannot emphasize enough that these defensive rankings have nothing to do with which defense to play in fantasy.
This week's highlighted matchups follow after the chart. But first a word about the categories. Only "Red Zone" is a little tricky. We're not talking efficiency there, but rather red zone possessions allowed. Red zone possessions have proven over many years to be more useful in predicting future defensive performances. RYPG is rushing yards per game. RTD/G is rushing TDs per game. PYPG is passing yards per game. PTD/G is passing TDs/per game. Yardage allowed is more reliable than touchdowns allowed for predictive purposes. Ideally, the two correlate. But some teams really can be break but don't bend, e.g., teams that blitz a lot.
Defensive Power Rankings


Teams are sorted by cumulative rankings in all categories. Lowest total number is best; highest is worst.

Rank

Team

RZ

RYPG

RTD/G

PYPG

PTD/G

POWER

1

San Francisco

1

2

1

2

3

9

2

Seattle

4

10

5

4

1

24

3

Pittsburgh

10

5

9

1

8

33

4

Chicago

10

12

5

6

3

36

5

Denver

9

6

3

7

20

45

6

Cincinnati

7

11

15

10

6

49

6

Houston

2

3

1

19

24

49

8

San Diego

4

4

3

22

24

57

9

Detroit

2

20

12

13

18

65

10

Arizona

10

30

12

5

10

67

10

Dallas

18

16

15

8

10

67

12

Green Bay

10

15

15

17

15

72

13

Carolina

17

21

15

12

10

75

13

NY Jets

7

29

26

3

10

75

15

Atlanta

6

23

28

16

3

76

16

Miami

25

9

9

26

8

77

17

NY Giants

10

22

5

27

15

79

18

New England

10

8

15

29

20

82

19

Minnesota

18

14

15

18

18

83

20

St Louis

25

13

29

11

6

84

21

Cleveland

16

18

15

21

15

85

22

Philadelphia

22

17

5

15

27

86

23

Tampa Bay

18

1

15

32

24

90

24

Baltimore

25

25

23

23

1

97

25

Washington

24

7

9

31

31

102

26

Indianapolis

22

19

23

20

20

104

27

Kansas City

30

27

12

9

27

105

28

Buffalo

18

28

31

14

20

111

29

Jacksonville

31

31

31

24

10

127

29

Tennessee

28

24

23

25

27

127

31

Oakland

28

26

30

28

27

139

32

New Orleans

32

32

26

30

31

151



Games of note:
Buccaneers at Saints (31): New Orleans has sunk to last place in our rankings, supplanting the Raiders, who don't even seem to care anymore. There are no strengths on the Saints' defensive ledger. Josh Freeman is a top five QB this week. Doug Martin and Vincent Jackson are poised to be world beaters. Dallas Clark could be a sneaky play and I doubt many teams have three receivers who should be started over Mike Williams this week.
Chiefs (27) at Raiders (31): It's always dangerous to start the bad offensive teams no matter how good the matchup appears to be. So be judicious here. I don't trust Denarius Moore this week; Rod Streater actually led Oakland in targets last week. Jamaal Charles may be the most productive back this week and should at least be top five.
Jets at Titans (29): Forget about all Jets. But those New York run defense splits are very inviting for Chris Johnson owners, if any made it this far.
Patriots vs. 49ers (1): As we said last week, don't sweat the elite passing game against the top defense. No defense can stop a perfectly executed offensive play, and especially a passing play. Brady is not a matchup-sensitive player. Given the way New England executed this week, there should be plenty of scores to go around. That means you play Stevan Ridley despite facing the normally very stout San Francisco run defense.
Bills vs. Seahawks (2): Remember, this game is indoors. While Marshawn Lynch should be in full Beast Mode again this week, his counterpart, C.J. Spiller, faces a very stout run defense. But is Spiller matchup proof? I say yes, given that yards per carry average. He'll need a few explosive runs, though, to get his yards as they will not come with any consistency.

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