Football by the Numbers: Matchup Decider

These rankings are for the purpose of predicting how many fantasy points defenses will allow to offensive players this week.


If you have other questions relating to matchups, feel free to ask them via Twitter @MichaelSalfino. I cannot emphasize enough that these defensive rankings have nothing to do with which defense to play in fantasy.
This week's highlighted matchups follow after the chart. But first a word about the categories. Only "Red Zone" is a little tricky. We're not talking efficiency there, but rather red zone possessions allowed. Red zone possessions have proven over many years to be more useful in predicting future defensive performances. RYPG is rushing yards per game. RTD/G is rushing TDs per game. PYPG is passing yards per game. PTD/G is passing TDs/per game. Yardage allowed is more reliable than touchdowns allowed for predictive purposes. Ideally, the two correlate. But some teams really can be break but don't bend, e.g., teams that blitz a lot.
Defensive Power Rankings


Teams are sorted by cumulative rankings in all categories. Lowest total number is best; highest is worst.

Rank

Team

RZ

RYPG

RTD/G

PYPG

PTD/G

POWER

1

San Francisco

1

6

2

2

2

13

2

Houston

4

2

1

7

17

31

3

Chicago

8

8

2

11

4

33

3

Seattle

8

12

8

3

2

33

5

Pittsburgh

13

4

11

1

5

34

6

Detroit

2

16

2

8

16

44

7

Arizona

7

21

8

5

10

51

8

San Diego

3

3

6

19

25

56

9

Denver

13

5

8

12

22

60

10

Dallas

17

13

20

6

5

61

11

Green Bay

6

11

14

21

13

65

12

Atlanta

5

26

24

10

5

70

13

Philadelphia

19

18

2

13

22

74

14

Miami

25

9

6

27

8

75

15

NY Giants

8

15

11

25

17

76

15

Tampa Bay

12

1

14

32

17

76

17

Carolina

18

19

14

17

10

78

18

NY Jets

8

30

24

4

13

79

19

Cincinnati

13

20

24

15

8

80

20

Minnesota

25

14

14

16

17

86

21

St Louis

22

17

29

14

10

92

22

New England

13

10

11

30

31

95

23

Washington

22

7

14

29

27

99

24

Baltimore

28

27

24

23

1

103

25

Kansas City

30

25

14

9

27

105

26

Cleveland

25

24

20

22

17

108

27

Indianapolis

19

22

28

20

22

111

28

Oakland

19

23

30

24

27

123

29

Buffalo

22

31

32

18

25

128

30

Jacksonville

31

29

30

28

13

131

31

Tennessee

29

28

22

26

27

132

32

New Orleans

31

32

22

31

31

147



Games of note:
49ers (1) at Saints (32): Colin Kaepernick is a top five QB this week if he starts. Boost Vernon Davis into a starting role even if Alex Smith goes, given how Davis had Smith's back when everyone else bailed. So maybe Smith will finally butter Davis's bread. Or Davis butters Smith's bread? How about we just say they'll go together this week like turkey on rye. Make sure you play Michael Crabtree, too.
I do think the Niners will have to score. Note how San Francisco is really in a class of its own in our rankings. But also note my belief, which has been confirmed to me by the stat people in the know, that offense tends to control outcomes. So the gravity is stronger for the Saints offense, which will pull the Niners defense closer toward it than vice versa. Remember, there really is no defense for a perfectly executed offensive play. And Drew Brees executes superbly. At New Orleans, with a playoff spot now in sight after the terrible start, I would not bench any of my usual Saints as much as I respect/fear the 49ers defense against more ordinary offenses/quarterbacks.
Titans (31) at Jaguars (30): We're licking our wounds still from recommending the Dolphins players against the Titans a couple of weeks ago. Let's not make that mistake again. The point here, similar to the one above, is that offense matters more than defense so garbage offenses move closer to average but not likely above it no matter how bad the opposing defense is. So do not go out of your way to play Titans and Jaguars who you usually avoid (the ones not named Chris Johnson).
Bills (29) at Colts (27): Here's the exception to the point in the Titans-Jaguars write up, and the value of this Matchup Decider. The Bills and Colts are okay offenses that play terrible defenses and thus get upgraded pretty significantly. So expect at least 50 combined points in this game.
Happy Thanksgiving to all and enjoy all the extra games along with the turkey sandwiches throughout the weekend. I like mine on a Verp's roll with bacon, iceberg lettuce, a firm but juicy tomato and Hellman's mayonnaise.

What to Read Next