Fantasy Values: Roto & DFS

Ryan Knaus
Rotoworld

With the regular season nearly over, every decision made by fantasy owners is magnified. Do you roll the dice on an injured stud, or play it safe with a healthy role player? Are three games from Jae Crowder superior to four games from Marquese Chriss? Should you make a final push to move up in assists in a roto league, or focus on sustaining your lead in big-man categories?   In last week's column, we looked at strength of schedule for every team, to determine how matchups might impact fantasy values (I'm also including an updated version of my strength-of-schedule tables...see below). This week we're putting individual value front and center, looking at 8-cat, 9-cat and DFS values for the top-200 players over the past three weeks.   Why three weeks? It averages out to about 10 games per player, which is sizeable enough to temper any fluky games (Devin Booker's 70-point explosion) but current enough to reflect recent trends. I'm avoiding past-10-game data for the player values because that also captures injured guys like Zach LaVine, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid, who aren't relevant for rest-of-season purposes.   Bear in mind this isn't a statement about what's to come, it's a reflection of what just occurred -- the values below are useful guidelines, but they're not the law. For instance, the Nuggets have the worst strength of schedule remaining, which could bump a guy like Markieff Morris below someone like Caris LeVert, since the Nets have the third-best SoS.   Speaking of strength of schedule, let's look at that first. This is 'updated' in the sense that it reflects each team's remaining games. I did not update the opposing-team values to include games from Mar. 22-Mar. 28, but they still offer a reliable sign-post for which teams have favorable or unfavorable rest-of-season matchups.


Editor’s Note: Get our MLB Draft Guide + Season Pass ($39.99 value) for FREE with your first deposit on FanDuel! Click here to claim now.


With that in mind, let's advance to the rankings. After collating recent stats for the entire league, I immediately tossed out any player who hasn't appeared in at least six games over the past three weeks. Player who haven't averaged at least 15 minutes in that span were also eliminated. That left 264 players under consideration. I calculated their values and dropped anyone outside the top-200 for 8-cat, re-calculated, then ran the numbers separately for 9-cat values and DFS values (the latter is based on FanDuel's scoring system, which is typical of the industry).  The DFS values can also be looked at as a proxy for points leagues and punt-percentages strategies, since it's based on raw volume of stats with no regard to offensive efficiency -- there's no penalty for shooting 3-of-11 from the free throw line or 4-of-16 from the field. More on that later.

You can follow me on Twitter @Knaus_RW

Rank (8-cat)

Name

8-cat

9-cat

DFS (FanDuel)

1

James Harden

13.38

8.38

57.99

2

Russell Westbrook

12.22

8.43

58.82

3

Stephen Curry

10.67

7.93

43.28

4

Damian Lillard

9.34

7.66

43.76

5

Karl-Anthony Towns

8.20

7.71

45.45

6

Paul George

8.16

6.59

41.23

7

Anthony Davis

7.98

7.61

49.02

8

John Wall

7.63

5.46

46.58

9

Rudy Gobert

7.28

6.66

44.80

10

Hassan Whiteside

6.76

6.51

41.01

11

Jimmy Butler

6.73

6.46

43.88

12

Ricky Rubio

6.50

4.93

38.05

13

Isaiah Thomas

6.48

5.10

34.66

14

Nikola Jokic

6.17

4.37

40.26

15

Klay Thompson

6.16

6.26

34.77

16

Kawhi Leonard

5.35

4.46

38.52

17

DeMarcus Cousins

5.21

3.02

42.10

18

Giannis Antetokounmpo

5.19

4.60

42.85

19

LeBron James

5.16

2.41

48.31

20

T.J. Warren

4.95

4.72

34.56

21

Mike Conley

4.94

3.38

35.34

22

Robert Covington

4.93

4.67

31.51

23

Al Horford

4.83

4.46

36.45

24

Kristaps Porzingis

4.79

4.29

35.32

25

Elfrid Payton

4.52

3.44

37.46

26

Chris Paul

4.36

3.28

34.23

27

Bradley Beal

4.14

3.65

33.78

28

Draymond Green

4.03

3.30

34.71

29

Nikola Vucevic

3.99

4.39

40.45

30

Dario Saric

3.92

1.92

33.50

31

Kyrie Irving

3.87

3.26

36.67

32

C.J. McCollum

3.80

3.70

32.95

33

Devin Booker

3.58

1.50

37.19

34

Dennis Schroder

3.47

0.28

35.35

35

Marvin Williams

3.33

4.57

32.55

36

Brook Lopez

3.24

1.67

33.17

37

Myles Turner

3.09

3.78

30.55

38

Gary Harris

3.00

3.27

27.62

39

Jusuf Nurkic

2.97

1.49

37.09

40

Goran Dragic

2.94

2.18

34.18

41

Kemba Walker

2.87

2.91

34.91

42

Jeff Teague

2.78

1.21

30.25

43

Trevor Ariza

2.64

3.93

27.12

44

Jrue Holiday

2.51

2.73

31.59

45

Gordon Hayward

2.33

1.44

31.64

46

Nikola Mirotic

2.29

2.69

27.53

47

Rajon Rondo

2.21

1.39

26.94

48

LaMarcus Aldridge

2.20

2.90

34.44

49

DeAndre Jordan

2.11

3.24

35.86

50

Victor Oladipo

2.06

1.70

27.87

51

Gorgui Dieng

2.02

2.07

24.59

52

D'Angelo Russell

1.75

0.78

30.01

53

Khris Middleton

1.70

0.72

25.87

54

Jae Crowder

1.69

1.44

27.51

55

Otto Porter

1.62

3.20

26.06

56

Danilo Gallinari

1.51

2.40

28.08

57

DeMar DeRozan

1.36

0.65

37.63

58

Richaun Holmes

1.25

2.05

27.28

59

T.J. McConnell

1.17

1.22

25.63

60

Tim Hardaway Jr.

1.14

0.97

25.65

61

Cody Zeller

1.10

2.01

25.45

62

Marc Gasol

0.89

0.10

32.86

63

Avery Bradley

0.80

0.44

25.46

64

Kevin Love

0.77

1.07

28.15

65

Patty Mills

0.76

1.45

22.91

66

Mason Plumlee

0.74

0.68

26.09

67

Carmelo Anthony

0.60

0.26

29.46

68

Julius Randle

0.58

-0.51

30.73

69

Willie Cauley-Stein

0.55

0.27

27.45

70

Jeremy Lin

0.53

-0.40

27.16

71

Jordan Clarkson

0.50

-0.23

30.12

72

James Johnson

0.48

-0.25

27.93

73

Malcolm Brogdon

0.38

0.60

24.14

74

Nicolas Batum

0.33

-0.42

29.26

75

Buddy Hield

0.26

0.41

24.32

76

Pau Gasol

0.04

-0.03

24.59

77

Derrick Rose

0.01

0.18

29.02

78

Evan Fournier

-0.21

-0.11

24.89

79

Lou Williams

-0.24

-0.49

23.53

80

Serge Ibaka

-0.29

-0.55

22.68

81

J.J. Redick

-0.30

0.29

20.87

82

Yogi Ferrell

-0.31

-0.09

19.78

83

Dwight Howard

-0.33

-1.88

34.06

84

Manu Ginobili

-0.37

-0.60

19.51

85

Blake Griffin

-0.37

-1.19

31.47

86

Jahlil Okafor

-0.38

-1.72

21.16

87

Nerlens Noel

-0.41

0.12

22.41

88

Tobias Harris

-0.47

0.32

26.70

89

Marquese Chriss

-0.55

-1.04

24.72

90

Andre Iguodala

-0.65

0.30

22.98

91

Greg Monroe

-0.69

-1.28

25.68

92

Solomon Hill

-0.75

-0.65

20.67

93

Wilson Chandler

-0.76

-0.06

26.39

94

Willy Hernangomez

-0.79

-1.16

27.11

95

Tyler Johnson

-0.82

-1.67

21.58

96

Clint Capela

-0.83

-0.13

28.10

97

DeMarre Carroll

-0.87

0.42

18.52

98

Eric Gordon

-0.88

-0.66

21.22

99

Taurean Prince

-0.89

-0.62

18.62

100

Enes Kanter

-0.97

-1.07

24.87

101

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

-0.98

0.58

20.85

102

Cory Joseph

-1.02

-2.26

23.54

103

Will Barton

-1.04

-0.45

24.82

104

Brandon Ingram

-1.07

-1.57

24.71

105

Robin Lopez

-1.08

-0.62

21.13

106

Dirk Nowitzki

-1.17

-0.47

25.17

107

Ersan Ilyasova

-1.20

-1.26

23.17

108

Jonas Valanciunas

-1.27

-0.69

24.75

109

George Hill

-1.36

-2.25

24.01

110

Tony Snell

-1.36

-0.27

18.26

111

Ivica Zubac

-1.38

-0.57

23.34

112

Darren Collison

-1.40

-1.23

24.49

113

Alex Len

-1.53

-1.63

23.64

114

Vince Carter

-1.54

-0.49

17.24

115

Terrence Ross

-1.58

-1.36

18.87

116

Harrison Barnes

-1.59

-1.13

24.97

117

Aaron Gordon

-1.62

-1.28

22.22

118

Danny Green

-1.64

-1.78

15.48

119

PJ Tucker

-1.69

-0.56

18.58

120

Allen Crabbe

-1.70

-0.51

18.60

121

Monta Ellis

-1.73

-1.15

20.52

122

Garrett Temple

-1.80

-2.07

18.48

123

Kris Dunn

-1.80

-1.00

14.39

124

JaMychal Green

-1.82

-0.89

20.15

125

Alan Williams

-1.82

-1.37

25.60

126

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson

-1.84

-1.25

23.13

127

Courtney Lee

-1.90

-1.56

21.17

128

Jamal Murray

-1.91

-1.75

18.65

129

Markieff Morris

-1.94

-1.13

21.57

130

Nene Hilario

-1.96

-1.27

20.94

131

Kelly Olynyk

-2.10

-1.76

19.68

132

Amir Johnson

-2.14

-1.92

16.59

133

Jamal Crawford

-2.16

-1.86

17.76

134

Tyler Ulis

-2.17

-2.77

27.96

135

Jameer Nelson

-2.27

-2.33

22.21

136

Jordan Crawford

-2.31

-2.09

19.33

137

Marcus Smart

-2.35

-2.84

21.49

138

Andre Drummond

-2.35

-2.45

34.06

139

Josh Richardson

-2.38

-1.45

19.12

140

Juan Hernangomez

-2.43

-1.47

15.94

141

Andre Roberson

-2.46

-0.97

18.84

142

John Henson

-2.51

-1.47

17.83

143

Andrew Wiggins

-2.52

-3.33

28.83

144

Patrick Beverley

-2.53

-2.66

18.74

145

Kosta Koufos

-2.53

-1.54

19.70

146

Larry Nance

-2.55

-1.62

18.87

147

Denzel Valentine

-2.62

-2.14

17.99

148

Thabo Sefolosha

-2.67

-2.10

17.84

149

Joe Ingles

-2.68

-2.34

20.09

150

Jeremy Lamb

-2.71

-1.58

19.03

151

Anthony Tolliver

-2.75

-1.79

14.69

152

Steven Adams

-2.76

-2.60

21.59

153

Jason Smith

-2.83

-1.59

15.82

154

Skal Labissiere

-2.89

-2.95

20.98

155

Joe Johnson

-2.90

-1.97

20.05

156

Seth Curry

-2.91

-2.74

17.44

157

Kenneth Faried

-2.92

-1.88

20.14

158

Tristan Thompson

-2.92

-1.90

20.32

159

Ish Smith

-2.98

-2.78

21.67

160

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot

-3.01

-2.85

15.98

161

Devin Harris

-3.02

-2.68

14.86

162

Matt Barnes

-3.12

-2.85

16.15

163

Channing Frye

-3.13

-1.84

14.08

164

Kent Bazemore

-3.19

-2.89

18.95

165

Delon Wright

-3.21

-2.94

15.11

166

Dante Cunningham

-3.23

-1.74

15.88

167

Georgios Papagiannis

-3.29

-2.30

16.10

168

Nik Stauskas

-3.31

-3.91

16.26

169

Ryan Anderson

-3.32

-2.11

16.29

170

Marco Belinelli

-3.32

-2.08

17.52

171

Caris LeVert

-3.35

-2.56

16.63

172

Marreese Speights

-3.36

-2.66

14.85

173

Tim Frazier

-3.42

-2.49

16.89

174

Ian Mahinmi

-3.49

-3.29

14.84

175

Zaza Pachulia

-3.53

-3.48

16.38

176

Iman Shumpert

-3.56

-2.60

16.26

177

David Lee

-3.57

-2.99

16.97

178

Frank Kaminsky

-3.61

-3.06

21.61

179

Jon Leuer

-3.70

-2.80

17.03

180

Dewayne Dedmon

-3.71

-3.23

14.41

181

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

-3.74

-2.84

18.50

182

Reggie Jackson

-3.75

-3.88

20.53

183

Bojan Bogdanovic

-3.75

-4.35

16.64

184

Quincy Acy

-3.76

-2.76

16.08

185

Isaiah Whitehead

-3.76

-3.85

15.77

186

Alex Abrines

-3.76

-2.41

12.27

187

Deron Williams

-3.77

-3.29

13.83

188

Sergio Rodriguez

-3.82

-3.36

17.49

189

Thaddeus Young

-3.83

-2.92

18.67

190

KJ McDaniels

-3.86

-3.06

13.04

191

Jason Terry

-3.97

-2.68

12.37

192

Noah Vonleh

-3.98

-3.48

17.50

193

Wesley Matthews

-4.00

-4.50

19.09

194

Tony Allen

-4.04

-3.35

19.54

195

Patrick Patterson

-4.08

-2.52

13.75

196

Norman Powell

-4.10

-3.84

16.69

197

Paul Zipser

-4.11

-4.01

14.14

198

Taj Gibson

-4.12

-3.69

17.61

199

Jared Dudley

-4.22

-3.74

16.35

200

Spencer Dinwiddie

-4.24

-3.94

17.14

Predictably, it's James Harden and Russell Westbrook who take top honors in all three scoring systems. Even their towering turnover totals can't knock them off the No. 1 and 2 spots in 9-cat, where they've edged out Stephen Curry, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard over the past 10 days.   We also see clearly the impact of efficiency (or a lack thereof). It's not as pronounced at the top of the list, but once we get to the middle we find roto-friendly players like Gary Harris, Gorgui Dieng, Patty Mills, Manu Ginobili, DeMarre Carroll, Taurean Prince and Danny Green, all of whom have been substantially less valuable as DFS options. Most of those guys are solid all-around contributors, but DFS also doesn't treat specialists very well, with the likes of Yogi Ferrell, Kris Dunn, Anthony Tolliver and Channing Frye also getting pummeled in FanDuel. Points all count the same in this system, so 3-pointers don't add value, and scoring is weighted so heavily that a guy averaging 2.1 steals per game isn't very meaningful.   On the flipside, we see how eliminating FT% from the equation benefits the likely suspects -- Andre Drummond, Clint Capela, Dwight Howard, DeAndre Jordan, etc. The same principle holds true for high-volume, low-FG% scorers who are tanking that category in roto but cruising along in DFS. This group includes DeMar DeRozan, Tyler Ulis and Andrew Wiggins, but even Marc Gasol stands out -- over his past eight games, he's shooting a mere 42.8% from the field and 77.8% from the line. Hopefully those numbers will spike once he's fully recovered from his strained left foot.   I hope this helps you make the critical decisions needed to win in competitive leagues. Take your time looking at the data and feel free to contact me with any questions or insights. If you prefer to download the spreadsheet or simply view it on Google Sheets, you can do so here. Good luck this week!

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