Fantasy Sit-Start: Lineup advice for every Week 8 game
Cleveland Browns vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Start: David Njoku, James Conner in DFS
Njoku has seen 28 targets over the last three weeks, including his first looks inside the red-zone of the season over the last two (when he’s scored two TDs). He gets a Pittsburgh defense that ranks 24th in DVOA versus tight ends (but first against receiving RBs, so downgrade Duke Johnson). No team has been targeted by tight ends more than Pittsburgh this season.
Conner has racked up 314 yards from scrimmage with four touchdowns over the last two games. He enters fresh off a bye in a strong home matchup against a reverse-funnel defense (Cleveland ranks first in pass defense DVOA and 25th vs. the run). Conner should be looking at a big game before Le’Veon Bell’s possible return and is worth paying up for in DFS.
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Sit: Nelson Agholor, Dede Westbrook
Only Pierre Garcon has a lower yards-per-target mark (5.9) than Agholor (minimum 40 targets) this season, and while A.J. Bouye is out, Jacksonville’s secondary remains its clear team strength.
Westbrook has lined up out of the slot 95 percent of the time this season, where the Eagles have fared far better than on the outside. Keelan Cole projects better in this matchup.
Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Start: Phillip Lindsay in DFS, Kansas City defense
Lindsay gets a KC defense that’s yielded the fourth-most fantasy points to running backs and will get more touches with Royce Freeman likely out. He also stays on the field on passing downs should Denver fall behind early.
The Chiefs are 10-point favorites, and Case Keenum should be forced to throw more than Denver would like. He’s gotten just 6.9 YPA with a 3:3 TD:INT ratio while taking nine sacks (three fumbles) over three road games this year.
New York Jets vs. Chicago Bears
Start: Chris Herndon, Tarik Cohen in DFS
The Jets are banged up at receiver with Robby Anderson joining the injured Quincy Enunwa, and the Bears are more beatable through the air (they are the only team yet to allow a rushing score and rank 18th in DVOA vs. tight ends). Herndon saw seven targets last week and has scored in back-to-back games.
Over the last three games, Cohen has averaged 93.3 receiving yards (7.3 targets) and scored three touchdowns, as he’s become the primary focus of Chicago’s offense. Allen Robinson might not play, so Cohen should continue to be heavily involved and there are a bunch of backs with a higher price tag ($17).
Washington Redskins vs. New York Giants
Start: Adrian Peterson
Sit: Evan Engram
Peterson may lose touches to Chris Thompson if he returns, but AP has run for 196 yards over the last two weeks and gets a Giants defense that just traded run-stopper Damon Harrison. Peterson is the centerpiece of an offense hiding its quarterback (Alex Smith has averaged 187.0 passing yards over the team’s last three wins).
Engram’s future remains bright, but he currently finds himself as the fourth option of a struggling offense on a team that’s tanking. He’s no longer an automatic weekly start even with the shaky tight end landscape.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions
Start: Doug Baldwin, Matthew Stafford
Darius Slay rarely travels to the slot, so Tyler Lockett has the tough matchup this week. Baldwin, who’s getting healthier, stands to benefit and should be treated as a top-20 WR.
Seattle’s impressive defensive stats (6.5 YPA) are a bit misleading (they’ve had an easy schedule and no longer have Earl Thomas), and Stafford’s at home with elite options to throw to.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Start: Adam Humphries, Tyler Boyd
Humphries saw nine targets last week (Jameis Winston clearly likes him), and he gets a Bengals secondary that ranks 27th against the pass in DVOA. He’s a sneaky WR option in deep leagues.
Boyd was a bust last week but gets another highly favorable matchup against a Bucs defense that’s been gashed for the fourth-most fantasy points to wideouts (slot corner M.J. Stewart has yielded the second-most fantasy points per pass route). This game has serious shootout potential (O/U is 54 points), so I have Boyd as a top-15 WR this week.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Carolina Panthers
Start: Michael Crabtree
Sit: Cam Newton
Crabtree hasn’t reached 95 yards in a game this season despite averaging 9.1 targets, but the volume should remain. Carolina’s defense is by far most vulnerable with its DBs on the outside.
It’s tough benching Newton, but Baltimore’s defense has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks (including holding them in check on the ground), and there are so many other strong passing options this week.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Oakland Raiders
Start: Marlon Mack and Derek Carr in DFS
Obviously, check Mack’s health status as he’s missed practice this week with an ankle problem, but he’d be a top-10 RB start if he’s good to go. It also makes him a strong DFS play as his price hasn’t yet caught up to his value.
The Raiders traded away Amari Cooper and are in full tank mode, but Carr is dirt cheap in DFS (with likely low ownership) and is at home coming off a bye against a middling Colts defense that also runs the fastest paced offense in the league. Jordy Nelson and Martavis Bryant are also interesting cheap fliers given this matchup and Cooper’s freed up targets.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Start: Raheem Mostert, David Johnson
Mostert isn’t guaranteed a ton of touches, but even if Matt Breida suits up, he’s a candidate to exit early again. Mostert has impressive speed and is just now learning the RB position full time. He has upside should he overtake the lead role in Kyle Shanahan’s system. The Cardinals have ceded the most fantasy points to running backs this season.
It may take more than one game, but new OC Byron Leftwich’s comments about utilizing Johnson like Bruce Arians did are highly encouraging. There’s hope after all, and a home matchup against the 49ers is a good place to start.
Green Bay Packers vs. Los Angeles Rams
Start: Randall Cobb, Josh Reynolds
Cobb looks set to return from his hamstring injury and he was averaging a healthy 9.0 targets over the first three games before going down. The Packers already barely run the ball and should have to throw plenty Sunday trying to keep up with the Rams’ potent offense.
Reynolds didn’t do much last week but should be more involved with Cooper Kupp once again sidelined. He’ll act as the No. 3 wideout on a team averaging 33.6 ppg (that doesn’t throw to tight ends much) in a game with this week’s highest total (56.5 points).
New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings
Start: Tre’Quan Smith, Kyle Rudolph
Cameron Meredith has a good matchup against a Vikings team that’s struggled covering the slot, but with Xavier Rhodes likely out, their secondary is vulnerable to the outside as well. Enter Smith, who played a season-high 52 snaps last week, dazzled during preseason play and has the explosive upside to be a difference maker.
Rudolph is relatively TD-dependent and hasn’t scored in more than a month, but he gets a Saints funnel defense (they rank second against the run and 30th against the pass in DVOA) in what should be a shootout Sunday night.
New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Start: Kenjon Barner
Sit: All Bills
Barner is the favorite to act as New England’s lead ballcarrier with Sony Michel out (James White is obviously the preferred back, but he’s essentially a receiver). The Patriots are 14-point favorites against a Bills defense that’s allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to running backs, so he’s an RB2 for this week.
Zay Jones has the best matchup on paper given the Patriots’ vulnerability to the slot, but Buffalo remains a fantasy wasteland. Chris Ivory would’ve made a more interesting play than LeSean McCoy, who will likely gut it out and leave a lopsided affair early.
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