Fantasy Basketball Stock Watch: Sophomore PGs not living up to their ADPs
RISERS
Julius Randle
Over the last five games since getting inserted into the starting lineup, he’s averaged 27.6 points, 11.2 rebounds and 3.4 assists on 59.3 percent shooting from the field. Randle’s energy fits well on a New Orleans team that sports the NBA’s third-highest pace, so there’s no reason to remove him from the starting five anytime soon. Randle doesn’t get a ton of defensive stats, but he’s a double-double threat every night with top-50 fantasy value now that he’s starting. His usage rate would be through the roof should injury-prone Anthony Davis go down at some point too.
De’Anthony Melton
He’s started the last three games for Phoenix and has averaged 14.0 points, 4.2 boards, 5.4 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.8 threes over the last five contests. Melton’s poor shooting makes him a better option in points leagues, but the rookie has impressed, and he could remain the Suns’ starting point guard even after Devin Booker returns to action. Melton is still available in more than 75 percent of Yahoo leagues.
[Play in our Week 15 DFS contest: $1M prize pool. $250K in overlay. Join now!]
Justice Winslow
He exploded for a career-high 28 points Monday night. Over his last four games, Winslow has averaged 20.8 points, 6.5 rebounds, 4.8 assists and 3.3 three-pointers, a span in which he’s been a top-20 fantasy player. It’s taken longer than expected, but the former No. 10 pick is finally expanding his shooting range (his three-point attempts are up from 1.9 last year to 3.4 this season) as evidenced by the 17 threes he’s taken over the last two games. It’s helped that Miami has dealt with injuries lately, but Winslow should continue to get plenty of run with the way he’s been playing regardless.
Marcus Smart
He’s not going to help you with scoring, but Smart has quietly been a top-50 fantasy player over the last two weeks since he entered Boston’s starting lineup for the first time this season six games ago. All those games resulted in Celtics wins by the way, so it’s a setup unlikely to change anytime soon. Smart is averaging 2.5 steals in the starting five this year and ranks third in the NBA in steals per 36-minutes, so he’s a savvy add if you’re looking for help in the category.
Bobby Portis
Chicago remains a mess and Portis is someone who’s burned fantasy owners before, but he’s back after missing six weeks with a knee injury. Don’t forget — he’s still just 23 years old. Portis has pulled down nearly 10 boards a game in a modest 26 mpg while on the court this season, so he’s back on the fantasy radar and worth grabbing in deeper leagues even if the Bulls frontcourt appears a bit crowded at the moment. He’s still available in more than 50 percent of leagues.
Larry Nance Jr.
He’s been a top-50 fantasy player over the last week and is about to get a nice boost in playing time with Tristan Thompson out 2-4 weeks with a sprained foot. Nance has been a top-100 fantasy player on a per 36-minute basis this season and has seen 11 minutes more per game when starting this year. He’s worth grabbing in the 30+ percent of leagues in which he’s still out there.
FALLERS
Ben Simmons
It’s hard to complain about a 22-year-old who’s a nightly triple-double threat, but Simmons has taken a step back in year two. He currently ranks as the No. 65 fantasy player after owners aggressively drafted him with an early pick. He’s still yet to make a single three-pointer during his career and continues to struggle at the line (58.0%). His turnover rate has spiked some, as well.
Put differently, Simmons hasn’t been a top-75 fantasy player over the last two weeks despite shooting a crazy high 73.1 percent from the field, which is sure to regress. Simmons will eventually develop the rest of his game, but he’s now also sharing the court with Jimmy Butler along with Joel Embiid, so he’s looking increasingly like a loss at his ADP.
Donovan Mitchell
Like Simmons, Mitchell is another sophomore who’s taken a small step back after a huge rookie campaign. In fact, they fittingly rank back-to-back right now (#65/66) in nine-cat leagues for the season after being second round fantasy picks at draft tables. Despite an increased Usage Rate, Mitchell’s numbers are down across the board this season, highlighted by poor outside shooting (he’s hit just 30.0 percent of his shots from downtown).
Mitchell hasn’t been a top-150 player over the last week and barely ranks inside the top-100 over the last month, so he’s been a huge disappointment so far (the Jazz come in bottom-10 in Offensive Efficiency this year in no small part because of his struggles).
Lonzo Ball
It’s a point guard sophomore slump theme, with Ball finishing out the trio. He’s shot an ice cold 32.9 percent from the floor and 55.6 percent from the line over the last seven games. It’s gotten so bad, Ball is even missing layups and then passing up wide open ones afterward because of it. Ball hasn’t been a top-150 fantasy option over the last month, and Rajon Rondo is getting closer to returning to the court as well.
