The Red Sox's David Ortiz strikes out against Detroit Tigers' Nate Robertson on April 10, 2008.
(Charles Krupa/AP Photo)
AccuScore has run more than 10,000 simulations for the 2008 Major League Baseball season for Yahoo! Sports, calculating how each team's performance changes in response to game conditions, opponent's abilities, roster moves, weather and more. Each game is simulated one pitch at a time and the game is replayed a minimum of 10,000 times to generate forecasted winning percentages, player statistics and a variety of game-changing scenarios. Here's AccuScore.com's analysis of David Ortiz.
As of April 13, Ortiz was batting 0.070 with one home run and three RBIs. In AccuScore simulations Ortiz is batting .283 with 30 HRs and 94 RBIs for the remainder of the 2008 season.
|Remainder of season||0.283||30||94||6.05%|
|Current + Remainder||0.266||31||97||5.75%|
|Boston Avg (03-07)||0.302||41||128||7.60%|
AccuScore has projected a 2008 season where Ortiz finishes batting .266 with 31 HRs -- well below his career average as a member of the Boston Red Sox (2003-2007) which are .302 average, 41 HRs and 128 RBIs. In order for Ortiz to end this season with a .300 batting average and more than 40 home runs, he would need to bat .334 with 40 HRs and 125 RBIs for the rest of the season.
AccuScore tracked the number of times in 10,000 simulations where Ortiz batted .334 and hit 40+ HRs from mid-April through September. He did this in just 3.8 percent of simulations.
|REMAINDER OF SEASON||AVG||HR||RBI||HR/AB||PROBABILITY|
|Goal to Reach Boston Career||0.334||40||125||8.06%||3.8%|
AccuScore gives Ortiz a less than 4 percent chance of matching his Boston career statistics in 2008 because of his very poor start.