What a difference a year makes: It's been an uphill battle for the Avs in 2014-15
Nathan MacKinnon was the first overall pick in the 2013 NHL draft. As an 18-year-old last season, he racked up 24 goals and 63 points for the Colorado Avalanche and won the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s rookie of the year. He spent the summer training with Sidney Crosby, getting into shape, looking to dominate.
He’s still the same talented kid. In a shootout Sunday night, he skated into the slot, slowed down and stickhandled. He faked a shot and froze the goalie. He made another move, got the goalie going to his right and flipped the puck the opposite direction, just past the glove and into the net. Gorgeous. He’s 4-for-4 in shootouts this season.
Yet he has five goals and 20 points, putting him on pace for 12 goals and 49 points. He hasn’t scored in 15 straight games.
And he’s not alone.
Colorado’s young forwards shined last season as the Avs finished third in the NHL standings. The team’s top four scorers were Matt Duchene, the third overall pick in 2009; Gabriel Landeskog, the second overall pick in 2011; Ryan O’Reilly, a second-round pick in 2009; and MacKinnon.
Now the young forwards are struggling as the Avs sit 24th in the NHL standings. The team’s top-scoring forwards are 35-year-old Alex Tanguay and 37-year-old Jarome Iginla. The 23-year-old Duchene, 22-year-old Landeskog, 23-year-old O’Reilly and 19-year-old MacKinnon are all off last season’s pace.
“I mean, all of us are kind of cold right now,” MacKinnon said. “Guys came in with some high expectations. It’s been frustrating for sure. I’d be lying if I said it wasn’t. Obviously you want to produce more than we have.”
The Avs had 112 points last season – and Patrick Roy won the Jack Adams Award as NHL coach of the year – even though they were one of the league’s worst possession teams. Skeptics said they did it because of unsustainably high shooting and save percentages. The Avs said they did it because they took high-percentage shots and allowed low-percentage shots.
Well, once again, the Avs are one of the NHL’s worst possession teams. Actually, they’re even worse as measured by Corsi (percentage of shot attempts) and Fenwick (percentage of unblocked shot attempts). And now they’re scoring fewer goals (2.99 last season, 2.46 this season) and allowing more goals (2.63 last season, 3.00 this season). They’re 12-13-8, on pace for only 79 points.
The magic is gone. They went 35-8-3 when outshot last season. They’re 6-10-6 when outshot this season.
“Last year nothing could go wrong,” MacKinnon said, “and this year it’s kind of the opposite.”
A few reasons:
— Personnel: The Avs parted with center Paul Stastny and winger P-A Parenteau. They added Iginla, winger Daniel Briere and defenseman Brad Stuart.
— Injuries: They have lost more than 175 man-games to injury. Though their top skaters have been healthy, their depth has been thinned, and goaltender Semyon Varlamov has missed at least 15 games over three stretches because of groin problems.
— The power play: While the penalty kill has improved, the power play has gone from fifth in the NHL at 19.8 percent to 25th in the NHL at 14.0 percent.
— Opponents: “Not taking away anything from us from last year,” Landeskog said. “We played well, and we had a good team. But we surprised a lot of teams, and teams really didn’t know what to expect from us. This year, I mean, they know what we’re all about. They know how we play. They scout us a lot more.”
— Luck: Duchene’s shooting percentage has increased from 10.6 to 11.4, but he’s taking fewer shots per game. Landeskog’s shooting percentage has dropped from 11.7 to 6.6, O’Reilly’s from 13.9 to 6.7, MacKinnon’s from 10.0 to 5.1.
— Stick-squeezing: “Another part of it is just confidence and key players just not having that confidence, myself included,” said Landeskog, who hasn’t scored in nine straight games. “A lot of us just haven’t been able to break loose offensively.”
— Goaltending: Varlamov was a finalist for the Vezina Trophy last season. He should have been a finalist for the Hart. Even when healthy enough to play this season, he hasn’t been nearly as good. His save percentage has dropped from .927 to .909.
Rookie Calvin Pickard has been excellent lately and has a .939 save percentage. He’s a huge reason why the Avs are 3-0-2 in their last five games despite being outshot every time. Still, Roy said if Varlamov is ready, Varlamov will start Tuesday night against the St. Louis Blues.
“Let’s not forget what Varly did for us last year,” Roy said. “I mean, Varly played so well for us. He was the reason why we had 112 points.”
The Avs still insist they can play well defensively while allowing a lot of shots, as long as they keep the shots to the outside. They have made adjustments, such as going from man-to-man to zone coverage in the defensive end.
They don’t talk about Corsi and Fenwick, but they do talk about improving their puck possession. They want to break out with control, not just chip it out, give it away and chase it again. They want to manage it better in the neutral zone. They want to sustain more pressure in the offensive end.
“It’s not just to keep the puck, but it’s to try to get the puck to some of the guys that fly, like Dutchie and MacKinnon,” Iginla said. “We have a good skating group, and we want to get them the puck in positions to put other teams on their heels.”
That’s their strength. At least it should be.
“I think that we’ve got a lot more goals in here, a lot more firepower that’s just waiting to click,” Iginla said. “I think there’s another level when guys start getting hot.”
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