Booms and Busts: Navigating a world without Aaron Rodgers

We spend most of the day sorting through the winners and losers on an NFL Sunday. But when the slate includes a major injury to an inner-circle Hall of Famer like Aaron Rodgers, no one feels good. It gut-punches everyone.

I don’t have a lot of Rodgers stake this year, for a few different reasons — but I feel depressed just the same. Just a week ago Rodgers was underscoring his greatness, orchestrating a letter-perfect game-winning drive at Dallas. Forget rooting interests and fantasy plays for a second — if you couldn’t appreciate that brilliance when you see it, nothing can make an impression on you. (I rewatched that final drive four times, myself, taking advantage of the indispensable NFL Game Pass package.)

Rodgers didn’t last long Sunday at Minnesota — a first-quarter hit to the turf resulted in a broken collarbone. It’s feared he’s done for the season. Third-year quarterback Brett Hundley took over in the 23-10 loss, looking like the inexperienced quarterback he is. He threw three picks, absorbed four sacks, and finished with a messy 39.6 rating.

Everyone can see the downside of the situation going forward. I can’t imagine any Packers skill player will be better off without Rodgers. All the passing options obviously take a hit, and even if the offense relies on the running game more going forward, it’s going to be a running game that no longer has Rodgers to keep the offense afloat. One of the pinball machines in the NFL just went tilt.

Is there any silver lining to all this? Let’s strain our eyes and try to find something.

— Quarterback isn’t a difficult fantasy assignment

Obviously the next Rodgers isn’t walking through that door. But just a month ago, Deshaun Watson was a rookie quarterback with limited expectations. We can keep streaming against lousy defenses (the Patriots wave hello; Josh McCown cut them up Sunday). Quarterback is the easiest of the four major positions to fantasy fill. Unlike real football, where the quarterback is king, fantasy owners can usually navigate the wire and at least land a credible QB replacement, for the short term or the long term.

— Your opponents will get major injuries, too

I’m not saying we have to feel wonderful about this, but it’s a fact of life. Someone in your league lost David Johnson in Week 1. Someone in your league accepted a partial day from Jameis Winston on Sunday. Someone had to play without Stefon Diggs. No one gets through a fantasy season unscathed, and while it doesn’t completely eliminate the sting, it does make it somewhat easier to accept.

— The NFL remains a chaotic, snow-globe league

Just a month ago, many fantasy scribes were writing the obituary for Carson Palmer. This past week, you surely read a number of emphatic pans for new Arizona RB Adrian Peterson (I’m raising my hand; I thought he’d fall on his face in the desert). Jordan Howard was a flop through two weeks; he’s been a league-winner since then. If you don’t like the shape of the current NFL, just give it another week. We’ll feel differently about a number of things when they play the next fresh slate of games.

Try to keep your wits about you. We’re a long way from the conclusion of this fantasy season.

— Maybe Hundley (and the Packers) will be better than we think

We can’t take too much from Hundley’s relief appearance at Minnesota — the team obviously put zero effort into getting him prepared ahead of time. Starting quarterbacks take all the first-team reps. Perhaps Hundley will be able to morph into a capable quarterback once he’s given adequate time to work with the first-string talent in Green Bay. The Packers play the Saints next week — always good for fantasy production — and then receive a well-timed Week 8 bye.

That’s my best effort in trying to whistle a happy tune. We’ll get through this together, gamers. Let’s stay the course, keep making the best decisions we can.

Cleaning up the New Orleans backfield

For the first five weeks, the New Orleans backfield was a case of “you can’t always get what you want.” But a surprising midweek trade cleaned everything up nicely — in Week 6, all three backs got what they needed.

Mark Ingram was the biggest winner of the new world order, as he rambled for 150 total yards and two scores in the crazy 52-38 victory over Detroit. Running mate Alvin Kamara was also effective (10-75 rushing, 4-12 receiving), though he didn’t have any touchdowns. But the shocker of the afternoon came later — Adrian Peterson exploded for 134 rushing yards and two touchdowns as the Cardinals rolled past Tampa Bay.

Ingram’s day was projectable and Kamara was at least expected to do what he did, if not a little more. Peterson’s production was difficult to forecast (don’t look at me, I panned him all week). The Arizona offensive line hasn’t played well all year; Peterson didn’t get anything going in New Orleans (or with Minnesota last year); and the Tampa Bay rushing defense had strong stats into Week 6. Was Peterson’s outburst a story in motivation? A fluke? A sign of things to come? You decide.

I’m going to double down on the Peterson fade and suggest it’s a good time to shop him in trade. His Arizona breakout is going to garner plenty of attention, but he’s still dealing with a spotty run-blocking line and a difficult set of run-stopping opponents. Andre Ellington had zero touches and just one target for the day, a residual of Arizona grabbing a quick 24-0 lead. That’s not going to repeat very often. It’s a perfect time to see what type of trades might be available to you.

Pianow on the Take

• Antonio Gates is probably a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but the Chargers need to make Hunter Henry a centerpiece of their passing game. Perhaps the torched was passed in Sunday’s win at Oakland, with Henry posting a 5-90-0 line on seven targets, while Gates was thrown to just once. I don’t care about Henry’s erratic usage in the first month; I truly believe the Chargers have seen the light. Hopefully the burden of 16 straight road games doesn’t hold down this LAC offense.

As for rookie receiver Mike Williams, forget about him. He played just nine snaps in his rookie debut, coming back from a back problem. There’s a major learning curve for most rookie receivers (the 2014 explosion was a generational fluke, not something to chase after). And the Chargers have plenty of proven pass-catchers already ahead of Williams.

• Pierre Garcon has shown flashes of greatness during his 10-year career — he even led the NFL in catches in 2013 — but there’s a legitimate reason why he has just 37 touchdowns in 138 games, with a high of six. The Garcon/Kyle Shanahan angle was modestly overrated in the summer, especially with the quicksand the Niners have at quarterback (mediocre Brian Hoyer, inexperienced C.J. Beathard).

I give Shanahan and staff major props for keeping the 49ers competitive in most games, especially the recent stretch of three straight road games. But Garcon is merely a low-end WR3 for PPR formats, nothing past that in our fantasy world. He’s not an automatic starter by any means.

• Don’t look back, Mike Gillislee, something might be — well, is — gaining on you.

Gillislee has been under four yards a carry for the year, he still doesn’t have a target, and he lost a key fumble in Sunday’s first half in New Jersey. He wound up benched for a considerable chunk of time after that, while Dion Lewis (11-52-1) surfaced as New England’s primary runner. Lewis also punched in a short touchdown, generally the handiwork of Gillislee.

Gillislee’s value could be cratering soon, with Lewis reemerging and Rex Burkhead probably not far behind. And James White is always going to have some role in this offense, though he only had seven touches in the comeback victory over the Jets.