Are Lovie Smith, Bucs better off dealing No. 1 pick and passing on Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota?

Lovie Smith is on the clock.

Beneath the intrigue about which quarterback the Tampa Bay Buccaneers might draft next month – and if that passer will start right away – is a more fundamental question about the franchise: Is Smith still "the ideal man" to lead Tampa Bay back to relevance?

If so, his future is tied to the next starting quarterback for his team. That looks to be either Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota … unless Smith and general manager Jason Licht make a move that might make a lot of sense: trade the top overall pick.

First, some background: That "ideal man" quote came from Bucs co-chairman Bryan Glazer when Smith was introduced more than a year ago. In order to be "ideal," Smith needs to be more ideal on offense. The Bucs have been historically poor on that side of the ball and so has Smith. Fusing those two histories has brought what you'd expect: more poor offense. The Bucs were all but unwatchable in Smith's first season.

Nothing worked. Smith brought in Josh McCown and benched Mike Glennon; now McCown is gone. Smith brought in offensive coordinator Jeff Tedford and now he is gone too after some health issues. The team won two games.

A call to Tedford (now head coach of the BC Lions in the CFL) was not immediately returned, but in a recent interview with the blog JoeBucsFan, Tedford said he wanted to return to the Bucs' sideline when he felt better.

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"I was ready to [return to coach] with about five games left," Tedford told the blog. "I wouldn't say that there was friction; it was a situation where I think when I let [Lovie] know I was ready to come back, [but] Lovie felt like it would kind of disrupt continuity at the time."

It's an understandable reason but there wasn't much to disrupt: the Bucs were inert. The plays were being called by Marcus Arroyo, a Tedford assistant at Cal who was offensive coordinator at Southern Miss in 2013. It's hard to imagine the Bucs being lost if Tedford took the reins back from his protégé. Arroyo was the same age (35) as McCown.

Smith was not made available for an interview, but the interpretation here is fairly straightforward: he has a vision for the offense that didn't involve Tedford. And since Tedford is more of a wide-open thinker, perhaps that vision matches what Smith did in Chicago. In the words of then-coordinator Ron Turner, who is now head coach at Florida International University, that vision was, "Run the ball, play-action, control the clock."

It worked brilliantly in the 2006 season, when Turner and quarterback Rex Grossman led Smith's Bears to the Super Bowl. The Bears made few mistakes, took few penalties, and let a strong defense do its job.

"He pretty much let us run the offense," Turner said.

Smith has now put his trust in Dirk Koetter, who was solid but not revolutionary in Jacksonville and Atlanta. If Koetter doesn't work out, Smith will be onto his fourth coordinator – if he himself lasts. That's a lot of pressure for a play-caller with a first-year quarterback. It's also pressure on a weak offensive line and a still-young group of pass-catchers. All of this will fall on Smith.

Now consider the possibility of a trade. If there is a willing taker, the Bucs will likely get either picks or talent or both. They need both. They can leave Glennon in as quarterback, introduce Charles Sims as a feature back and hope Doug Martin is healthy enough for a full season. They can use the picks on pass protection and added defensive help. Those ingredients would build the Bucs into more of a mold like what Smith used in Chicago. Keep in mind Smith has already called defensive tackle Gerald McCoy "the face of the franchise."

There is of course a major risk: Winston and Mariota go elsewhere and thrive, while Glennon fails to develop. The more conventional move is to draft Winston and figure out ways for the Florida State star to throw the ball to emerging wideout Mike Evans just like he threw the ball to Kelvin Benjamin in Tallahassee.

But if the Bucs pick Winston or Mariota and the choice doesn't work out, it's hard to imagine Smith working out. By trading the pick, the head coach (and the GM) have more of a chance to create the kind of team that won in Chicago. And Glennon, with his big arm, can get the ball to Evans and Vincent Jackson with as much velocity as either of the picks could.

"Bringing in a different offensive philosophy, staff, along with other things," Smith said at the NFL scouting combine last month, "we just felt like going forward with Mike Glennon only would give us our best chance."

Licht was even stronger: "We like Mike Glennon," he said in Indianapolis. "We want him to be part of the future. We like Mike Glennon a lot."

If "a lot" means enough to start, and enough to risk the backlash of letting the No. 1 pick go, the potential upside is quite significant.

Picking Winston or Mariota is a big bet on a rookie quarterback. Trading the pick and creating a deeper, more Bears-like team is a different bet.

It's a bet on Smith himself.