What needs to happen for Knicks to land Mavericks' first-round pick in 2023 NBA Draft Lottery

Leon Rose and Tom Thibodeau
Leon Rose and Tom Thibodeau / USA TODAY Sports/SNY Treated Image

Now that the Knicks season has officially come to a close after their second-round playoff exit against the Miami Heat, it's a good time to start looking ahead to next season and beyond.

The draft is just over a month away, but the 2023 NBA Draft Lottery takes place on Tuesday night, when the order for the first 14 picks will be set.

The Knicks own the Dallas Mavericks’ first-round pick thanks to the Kristaps Porzingis trade, but the pick is protected and may not convey to New York this year.

Here’s a refresher on what needs to happen for the Knicks to get that pick, along with some of the odds…

- The pick the Mavs sent to the Knicks is Top-10 protected this year, so if the Mavs end up securing pick 1-10, they would keep the pick. Dallas has a 3.0 percent chance of landing the first overall pick.

- Because Dallas finished the season with the 10th worst record in the NBA (they lost their final two games to increase their chances of keeping the pick), Dallas has a 65.9 percent of landing the No. 10 pick (and thus, keeping their selection), per Tankathon.

- The key number for Knicks fans is that there is a 19.0 percent chance the Mavs pick falls to No. 11 and a 1.2 percent chance it falls to No. 12. In either of those two scenarios, the Knicks would end up with a lottery pick this year. In order for the Mavs to fall to No. 11, the Chicago Bulls, Oklahoma City Thunder, Toronto Raptors or New Orleans Pelicans would need to jump into the top four picks.

- If the Knicks don’t get Dallas’ first-round pick this time around, they will acquire Dallas’ first-rounder in either 2024 or 2025. But both of those first-round picks are also protected from No. 1 – No. 10. So if Dallas ends up with a top-10 draft pick in both 2024 and 2025, the Knicks will not receive a first-round pick from the Mavs. In this scenario, they would instead receive Dallas’ 2025 second-round pick.

- If the Knicks don’t end up with Dallas’ lottery pick, New York will not have a selection in this year’s draft. They sent their own first-rounder (No. 23) to Portland in the Josh Hart deal, and sent their second-round pick (No. 53) to Charlotte as part of the three-team deal involving Kemba Walker.

- Remember, only the first four picks are technically drawn in the lottery. Picks 5-14 are then set in inverse order according to regular season record. This year, the Detroit Pistons, Houston Rockets, and San Antonio Spurs all have a 14 percent chance of landing the top pick.