NCAA tournament: How to bet Villanova in the Sweet 16

The NCAA tournament continues Thursday night after a mind-blowing first two rounds trimmed the field of 64 to the Sweet 16. Four double-digit seeds remain to keep the magic of a Cinderella run alive for at least one more weekend. While the 15th-seeded Saint Peter's Peacocks captured the hearts of the country, the 11th-seeded Michigan Wolverines have proved all of their doubters wrong.

After an uninspiring exit from the Big Ten tournament, it was fair to question if the Wolverines' invitation to the tourney was based more on name recognition than performance. After shocking everyone by eliminating the SEC champion Tennessee Volunteers, Michigan will look to cause more mayhem against the Big East champions Thursday night.

The Villanova Wildcats present a tough challenge for any team but match up particularly well against the Wolverines. The Wildcats are one of six remaining teams that rank in the top 30 of KenPom's efficiency ratings on both offense and defense. Villanova head coach Jay Wright has won two national championships and should be able to dictate matchup advantages against the third-worst remaining defense in the field.

I jumped on Villanova at -4.5 once the markets opened and didn't look back. Laying the points is the best bet, but I can understand why some bettors may be uncomfortable laying points with Villanova's style of play. Here is a breakdown of why I played the spread, plus a few creative ways to wager on the Wildcats without having to lay the points.

Villanova (-4.5)

This is a business trip for Villanova. Wright's resume includes eight Sweet Sixteen appearances to go along with his two national championships. There is value in that level of experience, which has me fully expecting the Wildcats to be the more prepared and composed team. Collin Gillespie will make Michigan's bigs work defensively with good ball movement, creating mismatches and making each possession count.

The Wildcats are nearly automatic from the charity stripe, shooting over 80%, and they average 118.3 points per 100 possessions. Michigan's defense held up against Tennessee, but this is a much more difficult task against the eighth-most efficient offense in the country. The pressure of having to play perfectly against a Villanova team that does not turn the ball over will eventually wear on Michigan enough for the Wildcats to pull away. These two teams are opposite extremes in terms of consistency, and Villanova isn't a team that allows you to overcome your mistakes. I am putting my money behind Gillespie to make the big plays in the final minutes to put this one out of reach.

Villanova Wildcats moneyline (-225)

Playing the moneyline is the most conservative approach that also can be the least appealing to some due to the required risk. You win your bet as long as the Wildcats win the game, but at -225 odds the payout is only 44% of the amount of your wager. The odds imply Villanova has a 69% chance of winning, which gives you a baseline to determine whether there is value in risking your money for the 44% return.

Villanova & Gonzaga moneyline Parlay (-131)

Pairing your Villanova moneyline bet with another heavy favorite is an approach to increase your return without laying any points. I am not a big parlay advocate, but there are certain situations where they can be advantageous when applied to two or three teams. If you are going to add a parlay leg, putting your fate in the hands of the best team in the country isn't a bad idea. Gonzaga is rightfully a -450 favorite to beat Arkansas with implied odds of 81%. Combining the Gonzaga and Villanova moneyline bets increases your payout from 44% to 76% of your wager.

Villanova winning margin 1-6 (+325) and Villanova winning margin 6-10 (+320)

Let's have some fun and attack this without relying on any other team to win. If your position is that you like Villanova but don't want to bet the spread, you are likely anticipating a very close, competitive game. By playing BetMGM's winning margin markets, you can increase your return to 110% of your total bet as long the game stays within' 10 points. If you wager 0.5 units on both margins listed above, your net payout will be at least 1.6 units based on +320 odds. After deducting the half unit for the bet that didn't hit, you are still profiting 1.1 units.

Villanova won its first two tournament games by 10 and 20 points, so there is some level of risk in Villanova winning by a wide margin. It's important to point out that the 20-point win was against Delaware, a much less talented team than the Wolverines. Including that first-round matchup, 12 of Villanova's last 14 games have been decided by 10 points or fewer. If you expect Nova to ice a close victory at the free-throw line, this could be a unique way to bet the game.

Stats provided by KenPom, haslamatrics, and teamrankings.com.