NBA Top Shot: Rare & Legendary Drops

·5 min read

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On Tuesday, December 14, NBA Top Shot announced they will be releasing their first Legendary and Rare packs of Series 3 with the return of the Deck the Hoops and Metallic Gold sets. These will be the first packs of Series 3 to require a high Collector Score (CS) to gain access to the priority queues, which has the market pumping again with folks trying to juice their scores to qualify. As collectors, we have two choices when the market gets like this, use it as a selling opportunity and hope to buy on the dip – or hold/bump up your CS for the drop.

Both of these releases will come with drop bonuses in which collectors receive 1 point to their CS for every $1 spent on a Moment kept, and I must say, I’m a huge fan of this particular bonus. One, it incentives collectors to hold, and two, it provides some relief to collectors who may have overspent on a particular Moment.

Now, it’s important to note that just because you juice your score to get to a priority queue does not necessarily mean you will be able to score a pack, so keep that in mind when considering how much it will cost you to get into the upper echelon of the Top Shot community. For information on team sets and bottlenecks, check out my previous columns.

Legendary: Deck the Hoops (Edition Size 55)
Release Date: Tuesday, Dec. 21

Total Packs: 470
Price: $999
Moments per pack: 9 (1 Deck the Hoops, 1 MGLE & 7 Series 3 Base Set 4K-60K+)

Priority Queue: Opens at 9 am PT

CS Requirement: 25,000
Packs in PQ: 270

General Queue: Opens at 10:30 am PT
CS Requirement: 10,000
Packs in GQ: 200

In addition to this being the first Legendary drop of Series 3, this will also be a historic drop, featuring past Christmas performances from the likes of Kevin Garnett (BOS)*, Kawhi Leonard (SA or LAC), Anthony Davis (NOP)*, Dwyane Wade (MIA), Jimmy Butler (CHI) and Klay Thompson (GSW).

With the star power in this pack that comes with a high CS and low Edition Size, I think it’ll be hard to lose if you snag one of these. As a reference point, the cheapest Legendary Moment currently on the market is Christian Wood with a lowest ask of $824 – but that’s with an Edition Size of 99.

We will also see new bottlenecks created towards Full Team Sets with the additions of Anthony Davis to the Pelicans and KG’s first appearance for Boston, and with the ultra-low Edition Size on these Moments, I anticipate these Moments being highly valuable. It’s a bit unfortunate for folks who were holding Full Team Sets of New Orleans, as that was one of the cheaper Full Team Sets to complete, but this AD with just 55 total Moments will put the Pelicans set in a different stratosphere.

It’s unclear if Kawhi Leonard will be appearing in a Spurs or Clippers uniform for his Moment, but he has Moments with each team, so this won’t create a new bottleneck. Butler’s Legendary Moment will create an alternative to his current Series 1 Run It Back (Edition Size 275) bottleneck with the Bulls, which currently has a lowest ask of $2,149, but I’d expect this new bottleneck to be even more expensive given its Edition Size. This is a pack that I’m eager to go after.

*Indicates a new bottleneck being formed

Rare: Metallic Gold Limited Edition (Edition Size 749)

Release Date: Tuesday, Dec. 21

Total Packs: 13,000

Price: $89
Moments per pack: 6 (1 MGLE & 5 Series 3 Base Set 4K-60K+)

Priority Queue: Opens at 12 pm PT
CS Requirement: 7,500
Packs in PQ: 6,500

General Queue: Opens at 2 pm PT
CS Requirement: 2,500
Packs in GQ: 6,500

This will be a star-studded pack featuring guys like Anthony Davis, Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Miles Bridges, Lonzo Ball, Franz Wagner and one yet to be named “superstar,” so this is another one I’m excited to go after.

I’m anticipating there to be a relatively high floor for the MGLEs considering their low Edition Size partnered with a relatively high CS score requirement, as those two factors tend to work in tandem to eliminate price dumpers from receiving packs. Also, with the other five Series 3 Base Set Moment unlikely to have much value, that should incentive people to steer away from a breakeven approach when listing their MGLE Moments.

Final Words

This is the first time we will see the true differentiation between the tiers of Top Shot Moments in Series 3, with these Legendary and Rare Moments not only having attractive Edition Sizes compared to their 60K+ counterpart, but they will also count as 1,000 and 80 points towards your CS, respectively, whereas the S3 Commons only provide you with a two-point bump.

It is worth noting that the S3 Base Set Commons you receive in these packs will likely be low-value Moments of the 60K+ variety, but Top Shot including the 4K-mark indicates they will be sprinkling in some rookies and LEs in these drops. There are also some stars who have LE Base Set Moments that aren’t entirely worthless, such as LaMelo Ball ($37), Ja Morant ($11), Gary Payton II ($10), etc. – so while the probability is low – there remains a chance you could also hit on some of the Common Moments in your pack even if you don’t snag a rookie.