NBA Top Shot Challenges & Upcoming Pack Drops

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The last time I wrote, I talked about how the Hustle & Show Challenge 2 might be a Challenge worth completing, and I decided to take my own advice on that and do the Challenge myself. Here’s what I learned:

  1. The prices of all the Moments involved in completing the Challenge will tank as soon as the clock strikes zero, so it’s best to be patient and wait for those Moments to recover some value before unloading them.

  2. When buying the required Moments for the Challenge, it’s important to try and land decent serial numbers, as that will help you greatly when trying to unload the Moments after they have tanked.

  3. The Reward Moments for the Hustle & Show Challenge are not behaving in the same way as all the previous Challenges.

As we all know, Challenges often artificially inflate the value of the Moments involved in completing the Challenge, but I wasn’t aware of how quick and immediate the drop-off in prices would be once the Challenge was no longer active. One thing I learned is that you don’t have to hold onto your Moments until you get your Reward, once that clock strikes zero and the Challenge is over, you can unload everything – although I found it’s better to wait for the prices to recover some before unloading your Moments – at least for the bigger name players. This is also why it’s important to try and buy Moments with decent serials (triple-digit or under 5K), as decent serials will help you sell your Moments above the lowest asking price.

Here’s how I fared in the Hustle & Show Challenge 2:

Damian Lillard – bought (#5593) at $30 – sold at $15

Trae Young – bought (#4380) at $25 – sold at $16

OG Anunoby – bought (#16276) at $19 – sold at $8

Dejounte Murray: got in pack ($14), sold at $8

Matisse Thybulle – bought (#13990) at $19 – sold at $8

Karl-Anthony Towns – bought (#5225) at $25 – sold at $11

Juan Toscano-Anderson – bought (#10575) at $19 – sold at $7

Facundo Campazzo – bought (#810) at $25 – sold at $15

Ja Morant #2608 sold for $74

Total Cost: $176

Total Sales: $154

Loss: $22

So, I took a small L completing the Challenge, but I was never expecting to make money as a best-case scenario for these Challenges often involves you breaking even. They’re definitely not worth completing from a financial perspective, but I wanted to add a Challenge Completion to my Top Shot resume under the presumption that that may help me secure exclusive packs in the future by boosting my Collector Score. Unfortunately, I did make the mistake of panic-selling Ja once he got bumped out of the playoffs, as I thought that would negatively affect his value and I didn’t want to get stuck holding the Reward once it inevitably tanked, as unloading the Reward Moment is key to getting close to breaking even. However, thus far, the Reward Moments (Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ja Morant) for the Hustle & Show set have actually increased in value since initially hitting the market, with Giannis and Ja’s current lowest ask at $112 and $87, respectively. I’d still anticipate these Moments to eventually dip, but that comes with the caveat that the Top Shot market is nearly impossible to predict.

Upcoming packs

Premium Pack Drop

NBA Top Shot will be releasing their final Series 2 Premium Pack on Monday, June 7 at 2 PM PDT, and in a throwback to Series 1, this rare drop will only set you back $24. The pack will include one Metallic Gold Moment and five Commons, it will require a Collector Score of 2,500 to join the queue and there will only be a total of 5,346 packs available; although anyone in the queue will be able to snag a rebound pack if they don’t luck out on the premium drop.

This pack will introduce 18 new Metallic Gold Moments, with the cream of the crop being the Brooklyn Fastbreak that ends with a thunderous throwdown from Kevin Durant – and unlike what we saw with the Throwdown Pack Debacle – this will indeed be a rare drop (499 Edition Size) and there aren’t many obvious duds amongst the players chosen for these Moments. Josh Richardson and Terrence Ross may turn out to be the least valuable of the soon-to-be-released pack, but given that Eric Bledsoe is currently the cheapest Series 2 Metallic Gold on the market at $65, it’s tough to imagine a situation where you wouldn’t be guaranteed a profit. Ultimately, the collectors who secure this pack will determine the initial market value, but with Top Shot making the required Collector Score so high, it’s clear that they’re trying to weed out The Casuals who play a pivotal role in ruining the market with their massive dumps. If you don’t qualify for the pack, I’d recommend “buying the dip” on the Brooklyn Fastbreak when it hits the market.

Speaking of the Collector Score, Top Shot will be introducing a score booster for this particular drop that will reward collectors who have spent more money in the marketplace than they’ve sold at a tiered level, and they will also be granting automatic entry to the queue for all collectors who have all 30 Cool Cats in their collection. Top Shot collectors will have until Monday, June 7 at 12 PM PDT to meet the Collector Score requirement, but the net spending scoring boost only applies to purchases and sales up until May 31. Side note, if you don’t qualify for the drop, now would be a good time to try and unload some of your Cool Cat Moments, as those are bumping right now.

From their blog:

Score Boost
Score Boost

Your Collector Score is determined with the following metrics:

Series 1 Moments

Common (Base Set only): 25 points

Common (Non-Base Set): 40 points

Rare: 100 points

Legendary: 2000 points

Series 1 Challenge Rewards

Common (Base Set only): 37 points

Common (Non-Base Set): 60 points

Rare: 150 points

Legendary: 3000 points

Series 1 – Challenge Completion + Reward Owned

Common (Non-Base Set) = 20 points

Rare = 50 points

Legendary = 1000 points

Series 2 Moments

‍Common (Base Set only): 12 points

Common (Promo): 10 points

Common (Non-Base Set): 20 points

Rare: 80 points

Legendary: 1000 points

Series 2 Challenge Rewards

Common (Base Set only): 18 points

Common (Promo) Challenge Reward: 15 points

Common (Non-Base Set) Challenge Reward: 30 points

Rare: 120 points

Legendary: 1500 points

Series 2 – Challenge Completion + Reward Owned

Common (Non-Base Set) = 70 points

Common (Promo) = 35 points

Rare = 280 points

Legendary = 3,500 points

Holo Icon on the way

About 1-2 weeks after the final Top Shot releases their final Metallic Gold pack, they will then unveil their final Legendary Series 2 Pack with the Holo Icon drop. The required Collector Score for this drop is expected to be even higher than the 2,500 required for the MGLEs (Metallic Gold), so it will be an exclusive club that will have access to this drop. The last Holo Icon pack cost $999, so I’d expect this one to fall in a similar range. That’s a bit too rich for my blood, and I still have a bad taste in my mouth from the Throwdown Pack, so I’ll be sitting this one out regardless of whether I qualify.

Playoff Packs Drop June 11

Lastly, Top Shot will be releasing their first Playoff Packs featuring Moments from the First Round on June 11. The pack will include three Moments in total, one being a playoff Moment and the other two being Series 2 Commons, and the pack will cost $14. Collectors will have from now until 9 AM PDT on June 9 to reserve a pack, and reserving a pack means that you’ll be guaranteed one on the drop date. I’m not confident these packs will be guaranteed to turn a profit, but at $14, to me, it’s worth the risk.