NBA Playoff Picture: Where the Western Conference race is starting to take shape
Almost every day there’s movement in the race for the Western Conference’s final six playoff seeds behind runaway favorites in Houston and Golden State. Games on Thursday alone shuffled seeds five through nine, and just one loss separates the ninth seed from five teams currently in playoff position.
It’s tough to see the the horizon through the window of ever-changing standings, so we’ll do our best here to regularly paint a big picture of the landscape for each team as they look to avoid the lottery.
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (42-26, currently in third place)
Two games up on fourth place, 4.5 games up on ninth place
Projected record: 50-32
Net rating: 2.1
Record against top-10 teams in the West: 12-14
Games left against teams above .500: 10
Home games left: 6
Road games left: 8
The Blazers own a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Thunder. They currently own conference-record tiebreakers against the Spurs and Clippers. They trail their season series against the Pelicans, Nuggets and Jazz with one game left against each to even the score. Portland finished 2-2 against Minnesota, but the Timberwolves currently hold a division-record tiebreaker.
Good news: The Blazers have separated themselves from the pack since last we examined these standings, thanks to a win streak that has stretched to 11 over the past two weeks, including victories against Oklahoma City and Golden State. Damian Lillard has been incredible during that stretch, averaging 30.7 points (on 43.2 percent 3-point shooting) and 6.4 assists this month. And Evan Turner personifies the don’t-give-a-[expletive] attitude that’s transformed Portland into a fringe contender.
Bad news: With five wins in hand and 14 games to play, it would take a meltdown to miss the playoffs, but the Blazers have to keep pushing if they want to hold onto that home playoff seed, because they have two upcoming rough patches — against the Clippers, Rockets, Celtics, Thunder and Pelicans from March 18-27, and another against the Rockets, Spurs, Nuggets and Jazz to close out the season.
Upcoming: vs. Detroit (March 17), at L.A. Clippers (March 18), vs. Houston (March 20)
OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER (41-29, currently in fourth place)
Two games behind third place, 2.5 games up on ninth place
Projected record: 47-35
Net rating: 2.9
Record against top-10 teams in the West: 12-14
Games left against teams above .500: 11
Home games left: 6
Road games left: 6
The Thunder own head-to-head tiebreakers against the Jazz and Clippers. They lost season series to the Blazers, Wolves and Pelicans. They’re 2-1 with one game to play against the Spurs. They must win their final game against the Nuggets to forge a season series tie.
Good news: Carmelo Anthony quietly put together a nice couple weeks, averaging 15.3 points, including 43.9 percent shooting on almost seven 3-point attempts per game, to go along with 5.5 rebounds, and the Thunder moved up from the seventh seed to fourth place in the meantime.
Bad news: Their recent rise featured four wins against tanking teams — two against the Suns and one apiece against the Kings and Hawks — and their lone meaningful victory this month came at home against the reeling Spurs. They now face a brutal stretch of basketball, with 11 straight games against teams still competing for the playoffs, before their season finale against the Grizzlies on April 11.
Upcoming: vs. L.A. Clippers (March 16), at Toronto (March 18), at Boston (March 20)
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (40-29, currently in fifth place)
2.5 games behind third place, two games up on ninth place
Projected record: 48-34
Net rating: 2.8
Record against top-10 teams in the West: 18-10
Games left against teams above .500: 6
Home games left: 7
Road games left: 6
The Wolves own head-to-head tiebreakers against the Pelicans, Thunder and Clippers. They’re 2-1 with one game left against the Jazz and 2-0 with two games left against the Nuggets. They hold a division-record tiebreaker against the Blazers and will break a series tie with the Spurs on Saturday.
Good news: After three straight losses to the Blazers, Jazz and Celtics that bumped them out of the third spot, the Timberwolves have course corrected a bit, picking up big wins against the Warriors and Wizards in their last two outings. That saved them from completely plummeting down the standings, thanks in large part to supernova efforts from Karl-Anthony Towns, who seems up to the task at hand.
Bad news: All-Star forward Jimmy Butler only started running recently and still isn’t jumping after undergoing surgery on his torn right meniscus, and that late March/early April scheduled return timeline is fast approaching. Meanwhile, the Wolves have a tough week ahead before a respite that includes games against the Knicks, Grizzlies, Hawks and Mavericks to close out this month.
Upcoming: at San Antonio (March 17), vs. Houston (March 18), vs. L.A. Clippers (March 20)
NEW ORLEANS PELICANS (39-29, currently in fifth place)
Three games behind third place, 1.5 games up on ninth place
Projected record: 46-36
Net rating: 1.0
Record against top-10 teams in the West: 11-17
Games left against teams above .500: 10
Home games left: 9
Road games left: 5
The Pelicans own a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Thunder. They’ve lost season series to the Wolves, Nuggets, Jazz and Spurs. They’re 2-1 with one game to play against the Blazers and Clippers.
Good news: The Pelicans continue to fight in the absence of DeMarcus Cousins, holding firm in the middle of this pack. Jrue Holiday and Nikola Mirotic have emerged as bona fide second and third options behind Anthony Davis, each producing close to a double-double per game this month (Holiday is averaging 20.4 points and 8.6 assists since March 1, and Mirotic is at 13.3 points and 8.1 rebounds during that same stretch) while shooting a combined 42.9 percent on 10 3-pointers a night.
Bad news: The burden on Davis may be taking its toll. After his monster February, he’s fallen back to Earth a bit, as much as 26.3 points, 11.7 rebounds, 4.8 blocks, 2.2 steals and two assists per game in March can be considered a step back. An ankle injury cost him a game in a loss to the Wizards, and he fouled in 36 minutes after shooting 8-for-19 from the field in a crucial loss to the Spurs on Thursday.
Upcoming: vs. Houston (March 17), vs. Boston (March 18), vs. Dallas (March 20), vs. Indiana (March 21), vs. L.A. Lakers (March 22)
UTAH JAZZ (39-30, currently in seventh place)
3.5 games behind third place, one game up on ninth place
Projected record: 47-35
Net rating: 3.6
Record against top-10 teams in the West: 15-13
Games left against teams above .500: 7
Home games left: 7
Road games left: 6
The Jazz own head-to-head tiebreakers against the Pelicans and Spurs. They lost their season series to the Thunder and currently trail the division-record tiebreaker against the Nuggets. They’re 2-1 with one game to play against both the Blazers and Clippers. They must win their final game against the Timberwolves to forge a tie in that series.
Good news: The Jazz have been incredible since last we held court, winning eight straight to establish themselves as a team none of these other challengers want to face in the first round of the playoffs, partly because of a light schedule, but mostly because they’ve obliterated everyone, even playoff-bound teams. Rudy Gobert has been a monster defensively. Donovan Mitchell continues to state his Rookie of the Year case. They’ve revived Ricky Rubio and Jae Crowder. And Dante Exum is back!
Bad news: Utah has arguably been the West’s third-best team since the calendar turned to 2018, outscoring opponents by a wide margin, but that’ll be put to the test once they (hopefully) breeze through another week against tanking teams. The Jazz close their season playing nine of their final 10 games against either teams still in the playoff hunt or a vibrant Lakers team with nothing left to lose.
Upcoming: vs. Sacramento (March 17), vs. Atlanta (March 20), at Dallas (March 22)
SAN ANTONIO SPURS (36-26, currently in eighth place)
3.5 games behind third place, one game up on ninth place
Projected record: 46-36
Net rating: 3.0
Record against top-10 teams in the West: 8-17
Games left against teams above .500: 11
Home games left: 8
Road games left: 5
The Spurs own the head-to-head tiebreaker against the Clippers. They currently hold the conference-record tiebreaker against the Nuggets. They lost their season series against the Jazz. An April 7 game against the Blazers will determine that tiebreaker, and they must win their final game against both the Thunder and Pelicans to forge ties in those season series.
Good news: The Spurs survived a brutal stretch against Golden State, Oklahoma City and Houston (all losses) by beating New Orleans to hold onto the eighth and final playoff spot for now. LaMarcus Aldridge continues to carry a heavy load, and the Spurs are getting contributions from Tony Parker to Bryn Forbes and everyone in between. The seam hasn’t ripped yet on Gregg Popovich’s patchwork.
Bad news: Kawhi Leonard still hasn’t returned, despite some optimism he could play this week, and it’s gotten to the point Parker posited on Thursday, “At some point, it makes no sense” to bring him back. Before winning two straight against the Magic and Pelicans, San Antonio won three games in their previous 14 outings, and they now face nine straight games against teams with winning records.
Upcoming: vs. Minnesota (March 17), vs. Golden State (March 19), vs. Washington (March 21)
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (37-30, currently in ninth place)
4.5 games behind third place, 1 game behind ninth place
Projected record: 45-37
Net rating: 1.4
Record against top-10 teams in the West: 8-17
Games left against teams above .500: 13
Home games left: 7
Road games left: 8
The Clippers own a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Nuggets. They lost season series to the Wolves, Spurs and Thunder. They’ve split their first two meetings with the Blazers. And they must win their final games against the Jazz and Pelicans to forge season series ties.
Good news: Tobias Harris has made the Blake Griffin trade look like a steal, averaging 22.7 points, 7.1 rebounds and three assists while shooting better than 40 percent from 3-point range this month, joining Lou Williams and DeAndre Jordan to form a legit triumvirate. And Montrezl Harrell headlines a list of young contributors providing depth behind them. As such, the Clippers took full advantage of the easiest remaining part of their schedule, finishing 5-0 against tanking teams the past two weeks.
Bad news: Sprinkled between those wins were losses to New Orleans and Houston, and even a 5-2 mark this month wasn’t enough to keep the Clips from falling out of the West’s top eight spots. Now, they play 13 of their next 14 games against teams still vying for the playoffs. Combined with the news that Avery Bradley will likely miss the rest of the regular season, it’ll take a miracle to stay in the hunt.
Upcoming: at Oklahoma City (March 16), vs. Portland (March 18), at Minnesota (March 20), at Milwaukee (March 21)
DENVER NUGGETS (38-31, currently in 10th place)
4.5 games behind third place, one game behind eighth place
Projected record: 44-38
Net rating: 0.5
Record against top-10 teams in the West: 12-16
Games left against teams above .500: 11
Home games left: 4
Road games left: 9
The Nuggets own a head-to-head tiebreaker against the Pelicans and lost their season series to the Clippers. They split season series against the Jazz and Spurs, holding a division-record tiebreaker against Utah and trailing a conference-record tiebreaker to San Antonio. They’re 2-1 with one game to play against both the Thunder and Blazers. And they must win their final two games against the Timberwolves to even that series.
Good news: Nikola Jokic seems to have responded well to his benching, averaging 19.8 points (on 52.9 percent shooting from distance), 9.5 rebounds, 7.8 assists and two steals over 31.7 minutes in the four games since, and the Nuggets have apparently figured out his pairing with Paul Millsap, outscoring opponents by 31.5 points per 100 possessions with them on the floor over 99 minutes in that span.
Bad news: When either one of them has been on the bench, Denver has struggled, and when they’re both sitting, it’s been a disaster. Losses to the Mavericks and Lakers over their past six games may prove deadly, because they too face a brutal slate after Saturday’s game against Memphis. The Nuggets play their seven games on the road, and 11 of their final 12 games against winning teams.
Upcoming: at Memphis (March 17), at Miami (March 19), at Chicago (March 21)
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Ben Rohrbach is a writer for Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at rohrbach_ben@yahoo.com or follow him on Twitter! Follow @brohrbach
