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NBA playoff betting: After beating Suns, Mavericks are big underdogs to Warriors

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The Dallas Mavericks are big underdogs again ahead of the Western Conference finals.

The Mavericks stunned the Phoenix Suns 123-90 in Game 7 of their conference semifinal series on Sunday night and will play the Golden State Warriors for the right to go to the NBA Finals.

The Warriors are -250 to win the series at BetMGM as they are the favorite to win the Finals among the four teams still standing in the NBA. Dallas, meanwhile, is +200 to win the series after having odds longer than that straight up in the hours ahead of Sunday night’s Game 7.

Game 7 wasn’t as close as the score indicated, either. Dallas outscored the Suns by 10 in the first quarter and then 20 in the second to take a 30-point halftime lead before stretching that further in the third quarter. It was an almost unreal game to watch as the team that was the best in the NBA throughout the regular season simply fell flat at home.

PHOENIX, ARIZONA - MAY 15: Luka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks reacts alongside Dorian Finney-Smith #10 after scoring against the Phoenix Suns during the first half of Game Seven of the Western Conference Second Round NBA Playoffs at Footprint Center on May 15, 2022 in Phoenix, Arizona.  NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
PLuka Doncic #77 of the Dallas Mavericks reacts alongside Dorian Finney-Smith after scoring against the Phoenix Suns during the first half of Game Seven of the Western Conference Second Round NBA Playoffs at Footprint Center on May 15, 2022 in Phoenix, Arizona. (Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Mavericks star Luka Doncic had 35 points while Spencer Dinwiddie had 30 and Jalen Brunson had 24. No Suns player had more than 12 points as Devin Booker was just 3-of-14 shooting while Chris Paul had just 10 points and four assists.

Doncic was the best player in the Suns series and can make the claim that he’s the best player in the conference finals even with Stephen Curry on the other side. Having the best player in a playoff series always gives you a chance and is a big reason why the Mavericks could be good value to win the series at such long odds. Dallas can play five-out with the Warriors when they spread the floor with Curry, Klay Thompson, Jordan Poole, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green, and showed over the second half of the Suns series that they can effectively lock down perimeter shooting.

Golden State will likely try to target Doncic when it has the ball in an effort to exploit his defensive weaknesses and wear him down. Phoenix effectively did that early in the series but Dallas adapted well.

The most likely series outcome at BetMGM is a Golden State win in five games. A 4-1 Warriors win is at +300 while a seven-game series and Warriors win is at +325 just ahead of a six-game Warriors win at +425. A Warriors sweep is +800 and right behind a Dallas win in six games (+600) and a Mavericks win in seven games (+700). Dallas is +2500 to sweep the Warriors.

If you think the series is going seven games and are unsure of the winner, you can get a seven-game series at +175. A six-game series is at +200 while a five-game series is at +275 and a sweep is at +600. The series over/under is 4.5 games and over 4.5 is -1000.