NBA GPP Pivots: Saturday 5/15 Showdown Edition

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A Showdown tournament is by definition, a one-game daily fantasy competition. Tonight, we have a big-time Showdown slate starting at 8:00 pm ET between the Miami Heat and the Milwaukee Bucks. Daily fantasy strategies differ when approaching a Showdown slate compared to a classic slate. I am going to devote this article to plays/strategies specifically geared towards tonight’s Showdown competition for DraftKings, FanDuel, and YahooFantasy.


Points bet
Points bet

Point Guard

Jrue Holiday - Milwaukee Bucks (vs. Miami Heat)

Holiday had a 55.0 fantasy point effort throughout 34 minutes of play in his last game against Indiana. Holiday has averaged 41.1 fantasy points per game over his last five games and is shooting 48% from the field. When you look at the matchup between Holiday and Miami’s PG situation conventional wisdom tells you that Holiday has the advantage. In my opinion, conventional wisdom would be right. Holiday has improved immensely on the defensive end. He is also to distribute the ball nicely when Giannis and Middleton are healthy. Holiday is capable of racking up rebounds and assists as well as major point totals. As for Miami, Nunn is questionable for tonight along with Butler. Either way, Miami will have a tough time against Holiday. I foresee Miami’s starting lineup to have issues with the 6’3 205 lbs Holiday. Because of this, Tyler Herro becomes one of my top plays of the night (off of Miami’s bench). Playing Jrue and Herro in the same lineup is a smart move tonight. These two players should correlate well. If Holiday comes out hot, Herro will come off the bench attempting to not only defend Milwaukee’s point guard but put up some shots of his own in order to catch up. I see Miami starting this game slow. Both Nunn and Dragic (Miami’s PGs) are priced in similar ranges. Investing in Miami’s Nunn or Dragic could be a solid pivo t play depending on your game narrative but realistically, give me Holiday 9 times out of 10 in this matchup.

Other PG Option: Goran Dragic

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Shooting Guard

Tyler Herro - Miami Heat (vs. Milwaukee Bucks)

I mentioned above playing Jrue Holiday with Tyler Herro makes a lot of sense. Well, I’m devoting a second paragraph to really show how much sense this strategy makes. Herro will come off the bench after Jrue proves to be too much for either Nunn or Dragic. To me, Holiday is an elite guard. I see too many people failing to give Holiday the credit he deserves. Holiday puts up numbers wherever he goes, and now that the defensive part of his game is becoming more sound, I truly believe the 28-year-old guard deserves to be talked about with the elite guards of the league. Tyler Herro has averaged 32.9 fantasy points over his last four games and Jimmy Butler is currently questionable for Saturday night. Butler has lower back tightness but I do expect him to play.

Other SG Option: Donte DiVincenzo

Small Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo - Milwaukee Bucks (vs. Miami Heat)

Considering Holiday and Herro will be making my lineups tonight, fitting players such as Giannis and Adebayo could become slightly difficult considering my remaining salary. To allow for salary flexibility, Andre Iguodala becomes a viable play. He has not performed well as of late. He is averaging 9.5 points over 18.4 minutes per game throughout his last five games. With that said, he will be on the court for at least 15 minutes and by rostering him (or someone in this low $1,500 - $3,600 salary range), you could potentially still roster Giannis or Adebayo. It’s important to have exposure to the high-end players who could possibly get 60 points. The key to a Showdown slate lineup is “raw points”. You can’t fade Antetokounmpo. He simply will score too many points for you to be able to catch up with mid-range players such as Portis or DiVincenzo. Therefore, investing in players in the $1,500-$3,500 range becomes extremely important for no other reason than to be able to roster Giannis and/or Bam along with Holiday and Herro. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a must-play whether he is in your MVP or utility position. His raw value is simply too high to fade.

Other SF Option: Khris Middleton

Power Forward

Bobby Portis - Milwaukee Bucks (vs. Miami Heat)

If you decide that Giannis is too expensive for your lineups, Bobby Portis is someone you must roster. Although I will not be rostering Portis, it is a viable strategy (to fade Giannis and invest in Portis). He’s Giannis’ backup and if Giannis were to get hurt, investing in Portis at low roster percentages would benefit you greatly. Other than a Giannis injury (or massive blowout), Portis’s upside is limited.

Other PF Option: Trevor Ariza

Center

Bam Adebayo - Miami Heat (vs. Milwaukee Bucks)

Brook Lopez is starting for the Milwaukee Bucks and will match up against Bam Adebayo. Both centers are talented in their own right but Adebayo clearly carries a higher ceiling. Lopez has averaged 28.7 fantasy points per game in 26.7 minutes per game over his last five games, and Bam has averaged 40.1 fantasy points per game in 33 minutes per game over the same five-game span. Bam has averaged 17 points per game, seven rebounds, and seven assists over 30 MPG in two games against Milwaukee this season. Honestly, these are not the most impressive numbers. Seeing this stat made me curious so I went over to Brook Lopez’s side to see how he played against Miami this season. Lopez has averaged 10 points per game, five rebounds and no assists over 22 minutes MPG in two games against Miami. Is it possible that we can fade both centers for tonight’s Showdown slate? Yes, it is! The beauty of a Showdown slate is that you don’t have to play any, one position. It is my opinion that both centers will not reach value tonight. Fading both centers could be a controversial call but if both teams are hitting their shots and not turning the ball over it could pay off in a massive way in GPP tournaments. Both the Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks are allowing their opponents to shoot 45.8% and 45.6 % from the field. These numbers are fifth and sixth-lowest in the league. With that said, the Milwaukee Bucks are allowing the second-highest three-point percentage to opposing teams at 38.3%. Stat of the day.

Other C Option: Brook Lopez

Bargain Bin

PG Goran Dragic

SG Duncan Robinson

SF Andre Iguodala

PF Bobby Portis

C Brook Lopez