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FiveThirtyEight gives Dubs surprisingly low chance to win title originally appeared on NBC Sports Bayarea
The Warriors have faced their fair share of doubters this season as they’ve overcome adversity to reach their sixth Western Conference finals appearance in the last eight years.
Now, as one of four teams left in the NBA playoffs, it looks like Golden State will have to prove skeptics wrong once more after a recent projection model shows the Warriors with the least-likely chance to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy when all is said and done
FiveThirtyEight’s 2022 NBA Finals prediction has Golden State with just a seven percent chance to win it all. The model shows the Boston Celtics with the best odds at 43 percent, followed by the Dallas Mavericks (35 percent) and the Miami Heat (15 percent).
The FiveThirtyEight model also gives the Warriors a 27 percent chance of beating the Mavericks in the West finals to advance, while Dallas, on the other hand, has a 73 percent chance of sending the Dubs home.
Those odds are in spite of the No. 3-seeded Warriors owning homecourt advantage over the No. 4-seeded Mavericks during the conference finals. And with that being said, Golden State would also have homecourt advantage over either the Heat and Celtics should the team advance.
The FiveThirtyEight projections are significantly less favorable to Golden State than those released by oddsmakers this week, who have the Warriors as the betting favorite to win the championship.
The odds, provided by our partner, PointsBet, also like Golden State’s chances of defeating the Mavericks in the West finals more so than FiveThirtyEight, with the Warriors listed as heavy favorites at -225.
For what it's worth, FiveThirtyEight also predicted that the Warriors would miss the playoffs altogether back in October.
It’s common knowledge, of course, that sports are unpredictable -- especially in the volatile NBA where anything can happen in any game.
But whether NBA fans are confident in the Warriors’ chances or skeptical, there are clearly odds for any attitude.
Now, it’s up to the Warriors to prove the less-favorable odds wrong.