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NBA draft history: How likely are you to land a star at No. 3 overall?

The 2024 NBA draft lacks sure-fire stars at the top, and many analysts consider this class potentially the weakest since 2013.

As the June 26 first round approaches, HoopsHype analyzed the historical performance of players selected with those top-30 picks to understand how frequently they attained star-level accolades.

With the Houston Rockets poised to select at No. 3 in the first round (barring a trade), here’s a look at the historical data of that spot:

  • MVP: 4.00 percent

  • Finals MVP: 2.67 percent

  • All-NBA 1st Team: 17.33 percent

  • All-NBA Team: 26.67 percent

  • All-Star: 45.33 percent

  • All-Defensive: 12.00 percent

  • Defensive Player of the Year: 1.33 percent

  • NBA champion: 21.33 percent

It’s worth noting that over a five-draft span from 2014 through 2018, the No. 3 spot featured four All-NBA players in Joel Embiid of the Philadelphia 76ers; Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics; and Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks.

Three of those four — Boston’s Brown and Tatum, and Dallas’ Doncic — will face off starting Thursday in the 2024 NBA Finals.

Given the relatively weak draft class of 2024, the odds of a comparbly elite outcome for the Rockets are remote. But, recent data suggests at least some reasons for optimism at No. 3 overall.

Story originally appeared on Rockets Wire